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[1]熊睿,邓院昌.疲劳驾驶交通事故的严重程度影响因素分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(4):20-26.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.04.003]
　XIONG Rui,DENG Yuanchang.Analysis on factors affecting severity of traffic accidents caused by fatigue driving[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(4):20-26.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.04.003]
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疲劳驾驶交通事故的严重程度影响因素分析*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
18
期数:
2022年4期
页码:
20-26
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2022-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on factors affecting severity of traffic accidents caused by fatigue driving
文章编号:
1673-193X(2022)-04-0020-07
作者:
熊睿; 邓院昌
（1.中山大学 智能工程学院，广东 广州 510006；
2.广东省智能交通系统重点实验室，广东 广州 510006）
Author(s):
XIONG Rui;  DENG Yuanchang
(1.School of Intelligent Systems Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510006,China;
2.Guangdong Key Laboratory of Intelligent Transportation Systems,Guangzhou Guangdong 510006,China)
关键词:
疲劳驾驶; 交通事故; 严重程度; 影响因素; 二元Logistic模型
Keywords:
fatigue driving;  traffic accident;  severity;  influencing factor;  binary Logistic model
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.04.003
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为探究和定量分析疲劳驾驶交通事故严重程度的影响因素，以广东省1 370条疲劳驾驶事故数据为基础，对比分析不同年份、时间段以及年龄段的疲劳驾驶交通事故特征；以交通事故严重程度为因变量，将其分为严重事故和非严重事故，从驾驶员年龄、驾龄、车辆类型等17个初步选择的自变量中筛选对疲劳驾驶交通事故严重程度具有显著影响的因素；采用二元Logistic回归模型分别对全体数据和不同道路类型下的数据建立疲劳驾驶交通事故严重程度预测模型，并对模型进行参数估计和检验。研究结果表明：模型拟合度良好，准确性高；对疲劳驾驶交通事故严重程度具有显著影响的因素有年龄、人员类型、车辆类型、道路类型、道路线形和能见度；车辆类型和道路线形是影响城市道路交通事故严重程度的重要因素，能见度是影响1，2级及其他更低级道路交通事故严重程度的重要因素。
Abstract:
In order to explore and quantitatively analyze the factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents caused by fatigue driving,based on the data of 1 370 fatigue driving accidents in Guangdong province,the characteristics of traffic accidents caused by fatigue driving in different years,time periods and ages were compared and analyzed.Taking the severity of traffic accidents as the dependent variable,the traffic accidents were classified into serious accidents and non-serious accidents.The factors with significant influence on the severity of traffic accidents caused by fatigue driving were screened out from 17 candidate independent variables,including ages of drivers,driving ages,vehicle types and so on.The binary Logistic regression model was used to establish the prediction model for the severity of traffic accidents caused by fatigue driving under the entire data and the data under different road types respectively,and the parameters estimation and validation of the model were conducted.The results showed that the model had good fitting degree and high accuracy.The factors with significant influence on the severity of traffic accidents caused by fatigue driving included the ages of drivers,personnel types,vehicle types,road types,road alignment and visibility.The vehicle types and road alignment were the important factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents happening on urban roads,and the visibility was the important factor affecting the severity of traffic accidents happening on first-level,second-level,and other lower-level roads.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2021-07-10
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（U1611461）
作者简介： 熊睿，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为交通安全。
通信作者： 邓院昌，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为交通心理与行为、交通安全。
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-05-13