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[1]肖国清,黄仁和,邹瑞,等.大型城市综合体火灾风险评估研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(8):137-142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.08.021]
　XIAO Guoqing,HUANG Renhe,ZOU Rui,et al.Research on fire risk assessment of large urban complex[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(8):137-142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.08.021]
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大型城市综合体火灾风险评估研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年8期
页码:
137-142
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2021-08-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on fire risk assessment of large urban complex
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-08-0137-06
作者:
肖国清; 黄仁和; 邹瑞; 陈春燕; 何理
（1.西南石油大学 化学化工学院,四川 成都 610500；
2.油气消防四川省重点实验室，四川 成都 611731；
3.中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012）
Author(s):
XIAO Guoqing;  HUANG Renhe;  ZOU Rui;  CHEN Chunyan;  HE Li
(1.College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;
2.Oil & Gas Fire Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu Sichuan 611731,China;
3.China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China)
关键词:
大型城市综合体; 火灾; 风险评估; 双主线; 贝叶斯网络
Keywords:
large urban complex;  fire;  risk assessment;  double mainlines;  Bayesian network
分类号:
X932
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.08.021
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为提高大型城市综合体火灾风险评估准确性，建立“双主线”火灾风险评估模型，运用贝叶斯网络计算火灾发展主线与人员疏散主线各节点可靠性，并通过改进的火灾关联度法对“双主线”进行协调整合，确定各风险节点动态权重。结果表明：２条主线对于整体火灾风险相互独立又相互联系，“双主线”模型得到的火灾风险值更精确，有效解决传统火灾风险评估模型无法协调统一评价火灾发展与人员疏散的问题。研究结果为定量评估大型城市综合体火灾风险提供新的思路。
Abstract:
In order to improve the accuracy of fire risk assessment for large-scale urban complexes,a “dual mainline” fire risk assessment model is established in this paper.The reliability of each node on the mainline of fire development and personnel evacuation were calculated by Bayesian network,and the “dual main lines” are coordinated and integrated through the improved fire correlation method to determine the dynamic weight of each risk node.The results show that the two main lines are independent and related to the overall fire risk.The fire risk value obtained by the “dual main line” model is more accurate,which effectively solves the problem that traditional fire risk assessment models cannot coordinate and uniformly evaluate fire development and personnel evacuation.The research results provide new research ideas for quantitatively assessing the fire risk of large-scale urban complexes.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2021-01-28 * 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（51874255） 作者简介： 肖国清，博士，教授，主要研究方向为建筑物火灾控制理论。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-09-08