|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]房曰荣,沈斐敏.道路交通事故发展趋势分析与预测[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(3):141.
　FANG Yue rong,SHEN Fei min.Development trend analysis and prediction of traffic accident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(3):141.
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道路交通事故发展趋势分析与预测
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
8
期数:
2012年3期
页码:
141
栏目:
出版日期:
2012-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Development trend analysis and prediction of traffic accident
作者:
房曰荣1; 2; 沈斐敏1
（1 福州大学，福州 350002） （ 2 福建船政交通职业学院，福州 350007）
Author(s):
FANG Yuerong1; 2 ; SHEN Feimin1
(1. Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China) ( 2 Fujian Chuanzheng Communications College, Fuzhou 350007, China)
关键词:
交通事故; 统计图表; 多元线性回归; 发展趋势; 分析预测
Keywords:
traffic accident;  statistical diagram;  multiple linear regression;  development trend;  analysis prediction
分类号:
X951
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
根据福建省2000-2010年交通事故相关指标，采用统计图表分析法进行交通事故发展趋势分析与安全水平比较研究，结果表明交通事故各项绝对指标总体呈下降趋势，但从万车死亡率、受伤人数与死亡人数比及交通事故死亡人数占各类事故死亡人数比重等相对指标看，交通安全总体水平偏低，交通事故后果比较严重。对交通事故死亡人数与GDP、机动车保有量、公路通车里程、人口数四项影响因素进行了多元线性回归分析，分析得出四个影响因素总体对交通事故死亡人数的线性影响是显著的，采取向后筛选策略线性回归分析得出，死亡人数与GDP的线性关系是显著的，根据回归结果建立了交通事故的预测模型。
Abstract:
In order to provide scientific basis for the traffic safety management, the statistical diagram analytical method was applied to analyze traffic accident development trend and safety level comparision according to the relevant index of traffic accidents in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2010 It showed that the absolute index of traffic accident generally decreases, but the level of traffic safety is overall low and consequences of traffic accidents are very serious from some relative index such as death ratio per 10000 vehicles, the ratio of injured to death and the number of traffic deaths portion in all kinds of accidents. Through the Multiple Linear Regression analysis on the number of traffic deaths with the four influenced facts, i.e. GDP, the volume of motor vehicles, the total length of highways and population, it showed that four facts have great linear influence on the number of traffic deaths. When the backward strategy was used, it showed that the linear relationship between the number of traffic deaths and GDP is significant. The traffic accident prediction model was built up on the base of regression results.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
福建省交通科技信息化项目（编号：FJJT0636）
更新日期/Last Update: 2012-04-27