|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]孟庆森,韩皓,李易.基于贝叶斯优化随机森林的高速公路二次事故预测研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(7):205-210.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.07.030]
　MENG Qingsen,HAN Hao,LI Yi.Research on secondary accident prediction of expressway based on Bayesian optimization random forest[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2023,19(7):205-210.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.07.030]
点击复制

基于贝叶斯优化随机森林的高速公路二次事故预测研究
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
19
期数:
2023年7期
页码:
205-210
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2023-07-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on secondary accident prediction of expressway based on Bayesian optimization random forest
文章编号:
1673-193X(2023)-07-0205-06
作者:
孟庆森; 韩皓; 李易
（1.上海海事大学 物流科学与工程研究院 物流研究中心，上海 201306；
2.上海海事大学 物流工程学院，上海 201306)
Author(s):
MENG Qingsen;  HAN Hao;  LI Yi
(1.Logistics Research Center,Institute of Logistics Science and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;
2.Logistics Engineering College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)
关键词:
交通安全; 二次事故; 时空阈值法; 事故预测; 贝叶斯优化随机森林
Keywords:
traffic safety;  secondary accident;  spatio-temporal threshold method;  accident prediction;  Bayesian optimization random forest
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.07.030
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为准确预测高速公路二次事故，最大程度地降低事故危害，采用时空阈值分析法分别研究时间间隔阈值及空间间隔阈值对高速公路二次事故数据识别的影响，通过参考现有资料并结合本文阈值分析，将时间间隔阈值和空间间隔阈值设定为30 min、1 km，利用该阈值下二次事故数据的识别结果，构建基于贝叶斯优化随机森林的预测模型，并与其他模型的预测效果进行对比。研究结果表明：二次事故数据的识别对空间间隔阈值更加敏感，模型预测准确率达81.4%，优于其它对比模型。研究结果可为高速公路二次事故预测提供借鉴。
Abstract:
In order to accurately predict the occurrence of expressway secondary accidents and minimize the harm of accidents,the spatio-temporal threshold analysis method was used to study the influence of time interval threshold and spatial interval threshold on the identification of secondary accident data on expressway,respectively.By referring to existing materials and combining with the threshold analysis in this paper,the time interval threshold and the spatial interval threshold were set to 30 minutes and 1 km.Using the identification results of the secondary accident data under these thresholds,a prediction model based on Bayesian optimization random forest was constructed to predict the secondary accidents of expressway,and the prediction effect was compared with those of other models.The results show that the identification of secondary accident data is more sensitive to the spatial interval threshold,and the prediction accuracy of the model is 81.4%,which is better than other comparative models.The research results can provide reference for the prediction of secondary accidents on expressways.

参考文献/References:

［1］国家统计局［EB/OL］.（2021-12-23）［2023-03-10］.http://www.stats.gov.cn/hd/lyzx/zxgk/202112/t20211224_1825644.html.
［2］吴雪菲.基于随机森林算法的降雨天气下高速公路二次事故致因研究［D］.南京：东南大学,2020.
［3］李振明，康家宁，苗建楠，等.高速公路二次事故中驾驶人不安全行为原因分析［J］.人类工效学,2019,25(6):63-68. LI Zhenming,KANG Jianing,MIAO Jiannan,et al.Analysis on the causes ofdrivers’ unsafe behavior in secondary accidents on expressway ［J］.Ergonomics,2019,25(6):63-68.
［4］胡源.高速公路二次事故成因及其预防对策研究［D］.哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2017.
［5］WANG J H,LIU B Y,ZHANG L F,et al.Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves［J］.Accident Analysis and Prevention,2016,87:141-147.
［6］ZHANG X,GREEN E,CHEN M,et al.Identifying secondary crashes using textmining techniques［J］.Journal of Transportation Safety & Security,2020,12(10):1338-1358.
［7］WANG J H,XIE W J,LIU B Y,et al.Identification of freeway secondary accidents with traffic shock wave detected by loop detectors［J］.Safety Science,2016,87:195-201.
［8］李婵娟.复杂路网环境下高速公路二次事故预警研究［D］.西安：长安大学,2014.
［9］ZHANG B,XU W S,LIU G T,et al.The early warning efficiencyanalysis of secondary accidents in expressway tunnels［J］.Advances in Mechanical Engineering,2019,11(4)：51-64.
［10］LI Z B,LI Y,LIU P,et al.Development of a variable speed limit strategy to reduce secondary collision risks during inclement weathers［J］.Accident Analysis and Prevention,2014,72:134-145.
［11］张东.高速公路隧道安全管理与二次事故预防探析［J］.科技创新与应用,2020(6):185-186. ZHANG Dong.Analysis on safety management and secondary accident prevention of expressway tunnels ［J］.Science and Technology Innovation and Application,2020(6):185-186.
［12］李振明,康家宁,苗建楠,等.高速公路“1315”模式二次事故预防机制的实证研究［J］.安全,2019,40(10):20-23. LI Zhenming,KANG Jianing,MIAO Jiannan,et al.Empiricalresearch on secondary accident prevention mechanism of expressway “1315” mode ［J］.Safety,2019,40(10):20-23.
［13］RAUB R A.Occurrence of secondary crashes on urban arterial roadways［J］.Transportation Research Record,1997,1581(1)：1141-1160.
［14］CHIMBA D,KUTELA B.Scanning secondary derived crashes from disabled and abandoned vehicle incidents on uninterrupted flow highways［J］.Journal of Safety Research,2014,50（13）:109-116.
［15］ZHANG H B,KHATTAK A.Whatis the role of multiple secondary incidents in traffic operations［J］.Journal of Transportation Engineering,2010,136(11):986-997.

相似文献/References:

[1]陈 春.道路交通事故的影响因素研究——基于结构方程模型的实证研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):103.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.018]
　CHEN Chun.Research on influencing factors of road traffic accidents——empirical study based on structural equation model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(7):103.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.018]
[2]赵亮,刘浩学.驾驶行为特性与人格特征关系研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):171.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.029]
　ZHAO Liang,LIU Haoxue.Study on relationship between driving behavior characteristics and personality traits[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(7):171.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.029]
[3]张芳燕,牛玺荣.2000~2013年我国公路交通安全研究进展及其分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(4):173.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.028]
　ZHANG Fang-yan,NIU Xi-rong.Research progress and analysis on highway traffic Safety in China during 2000 to 2013[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(7):173.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.028]
[4]高岩,董宪元,田飞.高速公路交通安全现状分析及管理对策[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(10):110.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.10.019]
　GAO Yan,DONG Xian-yuan,TIAN Fei.Present situation analysis on highway traffic safety and management countermeasures[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(7):110.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.10.019]
[5]吴玲,路巧珍,朱彤,等.视觉记忆型次任务对驾驶绩效及安全的影响[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(5):158.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.05.027]
　WU Ling,LU Qiaozhen,ZHU Tong,et al.Influence of visual memory secondary task on driving performance and safety[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(7):158.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.05.027]
[6]刘君,胡伟超,孙广林.公路突发事件应急预案自动生成系统开发及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(10):53.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.009]
　LIU Jun,HU Weichao,SUN Guanglin.Development and application of automatic generation system for emergency plan of highway emergency[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(7):53.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.009]
[7]王宗直,路堃,陈涛,等.基于格子气模型的北京地铁站内人流移动分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(5):31.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.05.005]
　WANG Zongzhi,LU Kun,CHEN Tao,et al.Analysis on pedestrian flow movement in a subway station of Beijing based on lattice gas model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(7):31.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.05.005]
[8]赵俊玮,华珺,刘永涛,等.不同警告方式下驾驶人应激反应能力模拟试验研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(6):162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.06.026]
　ZHAO Junwei,HUA Jun,LIU Yongtao,et al.Simulation test study on stress response ability of drivers under different warning modes[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(7):162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.06.026]
[9]王羽尘,马健霄,陆涛,等.公路隧道火灾发生位置与人群疏散通道仿真研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(10):38.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.10.006]
　WANG Yuchen,MA Jianxiao,LU Tao,et al.Simulation study on fire location and crowd evacuation route in highway tunnel[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(7):38.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.10.006]
[10]胡立伟,赵雪亭,杨锦青,等.城市快速过境通道衔接节点交通风险耦合致因模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(12):150.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.12.024]
　HU Liwei,ZHAO Xueting,YANG Jinqing,et al.Research on coupling cause model of traffic risk in connecting nodes of urban rapid transit channels[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(7):150.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.12.024]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2023-03-08
作者简介： 孟庆森，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为道路交通安全。
通信作者： 韩皓，博士，教授，主要研究方向为交通系统规划设计及控制。
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-08-07