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[1]张洪杰,牛然峰,韩雪,等.基于改进DEMATEL-ISM模型的折返行为诱因分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2026,22(4):171-179.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.04.021]
　ZHANG Hongjie,NIU Ranfeng,HAN Xue,et al.Analysis of incentives for turn-back behavior based on the improved DEMATEL-ISM model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2026,22(4):171-179.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.04.021]
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基于改进DEMATEL-ISM模型的折返行为诱因分析*

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
22
期数:
2026年4期
页码:
171-179
栏目:
职业健康与防护
出版日期:
2026-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of incentives for turn-back behavior based on the improved DEMATEL-ISM model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2026)-04-0171-09
作者:
张洪杰; 牛然峰; 韩雪; 毛艺洁; 杨昭; 王洁
（1.武汉科技大学 资源与环境工程学院，湖北 武汉430081；
2.湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心，湖北 武汉430081）
Author(s):
ZHANG Hongjie;  NIU Ranfeng;  HAN Xue;  MAO Yijie;  YANG Zhao;  WANG Jie
（1.School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430081,China;
2.Hubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Industrial Safety Engineering Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430081,China）
关键词:
安全疏散; 折返行为; DEMATEL-ISM模型; 诱因分析
Keywords:
safety evacuation;  turn-back behavior;  DEMATEL-ISM model;  incentive analysis
分类号:
X913
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.04.021
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为探究封闭式公共建筑火灾疏散中折返行为的诱发因素，划分折返行为为安全优先折返和非安全优先折返2类，基于文献筛选、专家意见和问卷验证，构建包含4个一级指标和15个二级指标的诱因体系，并提出基于中心度特征的动态阈值法，建立改进决策实验与评价实验室-解释结构模型（decision-making and trial evaluation laboratory-interpretive structural model,DEMATEL-ISM）。研究结果表明：火焰或烟气的影响度和原因度最高，人群移动速度低的被影响度和中心度最高；诱因体系呈现“下层危险暴露或信息不足-中层通行状态恶化-上层风险判断与路径调整”的递阶结构；非安全优先折返的核心诱因为亲友走散和羊群效应，安全优先折返的核心诱因为火焰或烟气、人群移动速度低和人群密度高。研究结果可为火灾疏散中的折返识别与引导干预提供参考。
Abstract:
In order to investigate the inducements of turn-back behavior during fire evacuation in enclosed public buildings,turn-back behavior was classified into safety-priority turn-back and non-safety-priority turn-back.Based on literature screening,expert judgment,and questionnaire validation,an inducement system consisting of 4 first-level indicators and 15 second-level indicators was established.In addition,an improved decision-making and trial evaluation laboratory-interpretive structural model (DEMATEL-ISM) was developed by introducing a dynamic threshold method based on centrality characteristics.The results show that flames or smoke have the highest influencing degree and causality,while low crowd movement speed has the highest influenced degree and centrality.The inducement system presents a hierarchical structure characterized by “lower-level hazard exposure or insufficient information-middle-level deterioration of traffic conditions-upper-level risk judgment and path adjustment”.The core inducements of non-safety-priority turn-back are separation from relatives or companions and herd effect,whereas the core inducements of safety-priority turn-back are flames or smoke,low crowd movement speed,and high crowd density.The findings can provide support for the identification,guidance,and intervention of turn-back behavior in fire evacuation.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2025-11-11
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金面上项目(52476127)
作者简介： 张洪杰，博士，教授，主要研究方向为安全管理、风险评价。
通信作者： 牛然峰，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为安全管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2026-04-29