|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]颜向农,肖国清,李思慧.火灾疏散中羊群效应的理论探析与模拟研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(4):46-51.
　YAN Xiang-nong,XIAO Guo-qing,LI Si-hui.Theoretical analysis and simulation study of herd behaviour in fire evacuation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):46-51.
点击复制

火灾疏散中羊群效应的理论探析与模拟研究()
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
7
期数:
2011年4期
页码:
46-51
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2011-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Theoretical analysis and simulation study of herd behaviour in fire evacuation
文章编号:
1673-193X(2011)-04-0046-06
作者:
颜向农1; 3; 肖国清2; 李思慧1; 3
1.湖南安全技术职业学院，长沙? 410100
2.湖南科技大学能源与安全学院，湘潭? 411201
3.湖南德雷机电工程有限公司，长沙? 410011
Author(s):
YAN Xiang-nong1; 3;  XIAO Guo-qing2;  LI Si-hui1; 3
1. Hunan Vocational Institute of Safety Technology, Changsha? 410100, China
2. School of Energy and Safety Technology, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan? 411201, China
3. Hunan Delei Electrical & Mechanical Engineer Co., Ltd, Changsha? 410011, China
关键词:
火灾; 疏散; 羊群效应; 信息; 模拟; 随机性
Keywords:
fire;  evacuation;  herd behavior;  information;  simulation;  randomness
分类号:
X921
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
将羊群效应这个社会行为学概念引申到火灾安全科学领域,运用信息阶梯式传播的社会心理学理论,解释紧急疏散中可能存在的羊群效应。以"信息传播"和"情感传染"的视角,分析了羊群效应的形成过程、机理和特征,同时指出羊群效应的两种随机性。以某大型阅览室为例,运用计算机数值模拟和虚拟现实技术,设置多种有羊群行为的疏散场景,测试羊群效应及两种随机性对疏散的影响。结论表明:非理性的羊群效应显著增加了必须疏散时间,降低了群体疏散效率和人员疏散可靠性,增大了疏散失败和拥挤踩踏的风险。建议火灾风险评价、应急预案制定和疏散设计应考虑羊群行为等极端情况下对疏散出口个数、疏散出口宽度、疏散距离、疏散路线、疏散方式的影响。
Abstract:
Herd behavior, a social behavior conception is introduced into fire safety science. The possible herd behavior in fire evacuation is illustrated by informational cascade theory of social psychology. The forming process, mechanism, characteristic and randomness of herd behavior are analyzed in view of "information cascade " and "emotional contagion ". The computer simulation and virtual reality technology is adopt, and irrational herd behavior and randomness in evacuation is tested in a reading room. A conclusion which irrational herd has significant effect on request safety evacuation time. Lowering group effect of evacuation and human reliability, increasing probability of failure is drawn. A suggestion is given which herd behavior must be considered in evacuation design, fire risk assessment and emergency preplan including exit number , exit width, evacuation distance, exit path, evacuation way.

参考文献/References:

[1]Bannerjee, A simple model of herd behavior [J],Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992 Bannerjee, 一个简单的羊群行为模型[J],经济学月刊,1992[2] Helbing, D., Farkas, I. & Vicsek, T., Simulating dynamical features of escape panic[J], Nature 407, 487–490, 2000Helbing, D., Farkas, I. & Vicsek, T., 基于恐惧力特征的疏散动力学模拟[J], 自然 407, 487–490, 2000[3]阎卫东,陈宝智,钟茂华 火灾情况下不同楼层对大学生疏散心理和行为反应影响的研究[J],中国安全生产科学技术,2005.8(4): 32-37YAN Weidong,CHEN Baozhi,ZHONG Maohua, Research for different floors impacting on college students’dispersing psychology and actions in the situation of fire disaster[J], Journal of safety science and technology, 2005.8(4): 32-37 [4] Russ Wermers. Mutual fund herding and the impact on stock prices [J]. Journal of Finance, Apr, 1999,581-622Russ Wermers. 基金市场的羊群行为对股价的冲击[J]. 财经月刊, Apr, 1999,581-622[5]Shiller R. Speculative price and popular models[J], Quarterly Journal of Economics,10,1992,797-817 Shiller R. 投机价格与普通模型[J], 经济学季刊,10,1992,797-817 [6]Bikchandani,Sushil,David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, A Theory of Fads, Fashion,Custom,and Cultural change as Informational Cascades[J], Journal of Political Economy, Vol.100,No,5(October 1992:992-1026)Bikchandani,Sushil,David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch, 信息阶梯式传播引起潮流、时尚、风俗与文化改变的理论[J], 政治经济学月刊, Vol.100,No,5(October 1992:992-1026)[7]任常兴,张欣,张网等,人员密集场所突发火灾事故应急疏散能力分析[J] 中国安全生产科学技术2010.4 (2):39-43REN Changxing,ZHANG Xin,ZHANG Wang etc.Analysis on the emergency evacution capabilities in fire acidents of assembly occupancies fire accidents of assembly occupancies[J], Journal of safety science and technology, 2010.4 (2):39-43[8]邬剑明,李英辉,杜红兵,火灾中人的心理状态及行为特点的研究[J] 中国安全生产科学技术2007.6 (3):34-38WU Jianming ,LI Yinghui,DU Hongbing,Study of psychological and behavior characteristics of people during fire accident[J], Journal of safety science and technology, 2007.6 (3):34-38[9]陈维，刘明臣, 高层建筑火灾和防火安全[M]，群众出版社, 2005 CHENG Wei, LIU Ming-cheng, High-rise building fire and fire safety[M], Qunzhong Press, 2006[10]颜春萍，颜向农, FDS+Evac人员疏散模拟软件的理论探析与实战技巧[J]，消防技术与产品信息 8-12, 2008.7 YAN Chung-ping, YAN Xiang-nong, A theoretical analysis on FDS+EVAC evacuation simulation software and its application skill[J], Fire Technique and Products Information, page 8-12, 2008.7

相似文献/References:

[1]龙腾腾,王辉东,王秋华,等.高层建筑火灾事故致因理论模型构建研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(5):16.
　Long tengteng,Wang huidong,Wang qiuhua,et al.Research on model building with high-rise building fire accident-causing theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):16.
[2]田禹,崔浩浩,孟欢欢,等.大学生宿舍潜在火灾危险性调查研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(5):144.
　Tian Yu,Cui Hao-hao,Meng Huan-huan,et al.Investigation and study on potential fire hazard in university dormitory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):144.
[3]张小良.起居室典型材料的火灾温度场实验研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):28.
　ZHANG Xiao-liagn.Test study on temperature field of typical materials in residential fire[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):28.
[4]沈一洲,朱国庆,黄丽丽,等.黄磷储罐火灾临界安全距离理论分析与数值模拟[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):27.
　SHEN Yi-zhou,ZHU Guo-qing,HUANG Li-li,et al.The Theory Analysis and Numerical Simulation on Critical Safety Distance of Yellow Phosphorus Tanks Fire[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):27.
[5]唐永,邢志祥.高层建筑火灾安全疏散研究述评[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):56.
　TANG Yong,XING Zhi-xiang.Review on study of evacuation?in high-rise?bulding fire[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):56.
[6]张云明.公众聚集场所火灾疏散性能化分析方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):70.
　ZHANG Yun-ming.Study on safe evacuation with Performance-based Analytical Method in Public Gathering Place[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):70.
[7]赵道亮.火灾与爆炸灾害控制课程建设与教学研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(11):82.
　ZHAO Dao-liang.Course construction and teaching research on control of fire and explosion calamity[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):82.
[8]胡超,朱国庆,张磊.外墙保温材料在火灾中的燃烧现象小尺寸实验研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(2):10.
　HU Chao,ZHU Guo qing,ZHANG Lei.Experimental study on combustion phenomena of external wall thermal insulation material in the fire[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(4):10.
[9]辛晶,陈华,李向欣,等.有毒化学品泄漏事故应急防护行动决策探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(2):93.
　XIN Jing,CHEN Hua,LI Xiang xin,et al.Decision making of emergency protective actions for leakage accidents from toxic chemicals[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(4):93.
[10]任常兴,张欣,张网,等.易燃易爆危险品道路运输火灾事故应急区域的确定方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(2):97.
　REN Chang xing,ZHANG Xin,ZHANG Wang,et al.Determination methods of emergency region for fire accident of flammable and explosive hazardous materialshazmats) in transportation by road[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(4):97.
[11]李舒羽,曹杨,盖文妹,等.海上平台火灾人员疏散路线优化研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(3):141.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.03.020]
　LI Shuyu,CAO Yang,GAI Wenmei,et al.Research on optimization of evacuation paths for personnel in offshore platform fire[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(4):141.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.03.020]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2010-12-20
通讯作者：颜向农，注册安全工程师。
基金项目：中国科技大学火灾科学国家重点实验室开放课题（编号：HZ2006-KF06，HZ2008-KF04）
更新日期/Last Update: