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[1]齐蔓菲,於家,姜丽,等.城市道路的人员疏散风险评价研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(3):12-18.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.002]
　QI Manfei,YU Jia,JIANG Li,et al.Research on risk assessment of personnel evacuation on urban roads[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(3):12-18.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.002]
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城市道路的人员疏散风险评价研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年3期
页码:
12-18
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2021-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on risk assessment of personnel evacuation on urban roads
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-03-0012-07
作者:
齐蔓菲; 於家; 姜丽; 温家洪; 李仙德; 徐慧; 毕雪梅
（1.上海师范大学 环境与地理科学学院，上海 200234；
2.江苏省地震局，江苏 南京 210014）
Author(s):
QI Manfei;  YU Jia;  JIANG Li;  WEN Jiahong1;  LI Xiande;  XU Hui;  BI Xuemei
(1.School of Environmental and Geographical Science,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;
2.Jiangsu Earthquake Administration,Nanjing Jiangsu 210014,China)
关键词:
疏散风险评价; 人员疏散; 临界簇模型; 上海市; 地理信息系统
Keywords:
evacuation risk assessment;  personnel evacuation;  critical cluster model;  Shanghai;  GIS
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为量化评价城市道路在人员疏散过程中存在的风险，以支持城市道路规划，以及有效开展应急疏散管理，提出1种城市道路的人员疏散风险评价方法。该方法设定多种影响因素，构建道路疏散风险评价函数，并结合临界簇模型，运用实时交通态势数据与动态人口数据，评估不同时间的道路疏散风险。以上海市外环线内区域为研究区，开展道路疏散风险综合评价与突发事件情景下的道路疏散风险评价。结果表明：该方法可以有效综合多种影响因素，空间量化表达道路的人员疏散风险。评价结果能够为城市道路设施规划提供帮助，为提升城市应急疏散管理效率，降低事故的伤亡与损失提供决策依据。
Abstract:
In order to quantitatively assess the risk of personnel evacuation process on the urban roads,so as to support the urban road planning and effectively carry out the emergency evacuation management,a risk assessment method of personnel evacuation on the urban roads was proposed.Multiple influencing factors were set,and a risk evaluate function of road evacuation was established.Combined with the critical cluster model (CCM),the real-time traffic status data and dynamic population data were applied to assess the road evacuation risk at different time.Taking the inner region of the Shanghai Outer Ring Road as the research area,the comprehensive assessment of road evacuation risk and the assessment in the emergency situations were conducted.The results showed that the method could effectively integrate various influencing factors to spatially and quantitatively express the personnel evacuation risk of road.The assessment results can support the urban road facilities planning,and provide decision-making basis for improving the efficiency of urban emergency evacuation management and reducing the accident casualties and losses.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-11-13
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（72074151）；上海自然科学基金项目（20ZR1441500）；中国地震局重大政策理论与实践问题研究项目（CEAZY2021JZ08）
作者简介： 齐蔓菲，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为道路疏散风险评价。
通信作者： 於家，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为城市应急疏散模拟与风险评价。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-04-13