|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]王永明.情景构建理论沿革及其对我国应急管理工作的启示[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(9):57-62.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.09.009]
　WANG Yongming.Evolution of scenario construction theory and its enlightenments to emergency management in China[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(9):57-62.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.09.009]
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情景构建理论沿革及其对我国应急管理工作的启示
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
15
期数:
2019年9期
页码:
57-62
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2019-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Evolution of scenario construction theory and its enlightenments to emergency management in China
文章编号:
1673-193X(2019)-09-0057-06
作者:
王永明
（中共中央党校（国家行政学院），北京 100089）
Author(s):
WANG Yongming
(Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C.& National Academy of Governance,Beijing 100089,China)
关键词:
情景构建; 风险分析; 应急准备; 应急管理
Keywords:
scenario construction;  risk analysis;  emergency preparedness;  emergency management
分类号:
X913.4
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.09.009
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
20世纪70年代，情景构建作为一种风险管理工具进入民防和应急管理实践者的视野，并逐步成为西方发达国家开展应急准备的核心策略，德国、英国、丹麦、荷兰等国家的风险评估规范均对情景构建这种方法给予了标准化要求。作为风险分析和应急准备工作的重要支撑策略，情景构建对我国当下的应急管理工作具有重要意义。首先，情景构建可以推进我国相关主体开展扎实的风险分析和风险沟通工作；其次，情景构建为相关主体提供了一种基于“风险”驱动的应急能力建设路径；最后，情景构建为当下改革阶段的应急管理机制建设提供了一种策略和方法。
Abstract:
In the 1970s,the scenario construction as a risk management tool entered the view of civil defense and emergency management practitioners,and gradually became the core strategy of emergency preparedness in the western developed countries.The risk assessment specifications in Germany,Britain,Denmark,Netherlands and other countries have put forward the standardization requirements to the scenario construction method.As an important supporting strategy for the risk analysis and emergency preparedness,the scenario construction is of great significance to the current emergency management work in China.Firstly,the scenario construction can promote the related subjects to carry out the solid risk analysis and risk communication.Secondly,the scenario construction provides a constructional path of emergency capacity based on risk driving for the related subjects.Finally,the scenario construction provides a strategy and method for the construction of emergency management mechanism in the current stage of reform.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2019-09-09
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC0804900,2017YFC0804706）；国家自然科学基金项目（91324020）；2019年度中央党校（国家行政学院）校级科研青年课题项目（2019QN009）
作者简介： 王永明，博士，高级工程师，主要研究方向为突发事件应急准备、重大突发事件情景构建、安全生产应急管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-10-15