|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]陈伟,温晋锋,钱城江.化工企业事故决策者风险感知模拟预测研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):92-98.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.015]
　CHEN Wei,WEN Jinfeng,QIAN Chengjiang.Study on simulation and prediction of risk perception for enterprise decision-maker in chemical accident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(8):92-98.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.015]
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化工企业事故决策者风险感知模拟预测研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年8期
页码:
92-98
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on simulation and prediction of risk perception for enterprise decision-maker in chemical accident
作者:
陈伟; 温晋锋; 钱城江
(南京工业大学 安全科学与工程学院，江苏省城市与工业安全重 点实验室，江苏 南京 210009)
Author(s):
CHEN Wei;  WEN Jinfeng;  QIAN Chengjiang
(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban and Industrial Safety, College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210009, China)
关键词:
化工事故; 决策者; 风险感知; 模拟预测
Keywords:
chemical accident;  decision-maker;  risk perception;  simulation and prediction
分类号:
X913.4
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.015
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究化工园区突发事故情景下，企业决策者的风险感知变化情况，基于系统动 力学系统论、信息论、结构论、控制论、协同论等特点，探索风险感知变化的实际影响 因素体系，并结合vensim软件构建企业决策者的风险感知因果关系图和系统流图，定量 评判、预测、计算和修正各影响因素之间的逻辑关系，建立量化表达函数并模拟，以此 获得各状态变量间的变化情况。对比敏感度分析结果表明：风险感知、风险观念以及风 险行为决策影响因素的正负相关性各有不同，且相互影响。
Abstract:
To study and predict the change of risk perception for enterprise decision-maker under the situation of sudden accident in chemical industry park, the practical influence factor system for change of risk perception was explored based on the characteristics including system theory, information theory, structure theory, control theory and coordination theory of system dynamic, and the causality graph and system flow diagram of risk perception for enterprise decision-maker were constructed with vensim software. The logic relation among various influence factos were evaluated, predicted, calculated and corrected quantitatively, and the quantitative expression function was built and simulated, so as to obtain the change of various state variables. By comparing the analysis results of sensitivity, it showed that the influence factors including risk perception, risk perspective and risk behavior and decision have different positive and negative correlation, and they influence each other.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目(71001051);江苏省危险化学品本质安全与控制重 点实验室开放课题项目（HCSC201304）
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-08-30