|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]魏利军,王向阳,罗艾民,等.基于贝叶斯网络的化工园区地震次生灾害情景分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(12):73-78.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.011]
 WEI Lijun,WANG Xiangyang,LUO Aimin,et al.Scenario analysis on secondary disasters of earthquake in chemical industry park based on Bayesian network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(12):73-78.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.011]
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基于贝叶斯网络的化工园区地震次生灾害情景分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
13
期数:
2017年12期
页码:
73-78
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2017-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Scenario analysis on secondary disasters of earthquake in chemical industry park based on Bayesian network
文章编号:
1673-193X(2017)-12-0073-06
作者:
魏利军1王向阳12罗艾民1多英全1王如君1向阳2
(1.中国安全生产科学研究院,北京 100012; 2.北京化工大学 化学工程学院,北京 100029)
Author(s):
WEI Lijun1WANG Xiangyang12 LUO Aimin1 DUO Yingquan1 WANG Rujun1 XIANG Yang2
(1. China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China; 2. School of Chemical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)
关键词:
贝叶斯网络化工园区地震次生灾害化工事故事故链概率分析
Keywords:
Bayesian network chemical industry park secondary disasters of earthquake chemical accident accident chain probability analysis
分类号:
X915.5
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.011
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了研究化工园区内发生地震灾害后的事故演化过程,利用事故链模型对地震次生灾害演化过程进行分析,并将其转化为贝叶斯网络,确定各节点的变量与状态取值范围;通过相关文献及专家经验判断分析,获得贝叶斯网络中各节点的条件概率;依据贝叶斯网络的推理策略,比较不同地震烈度下,各化工事故发生的后验概率值,并探讨应急救援的及时性对地震次生灾害发生概率的影响,从关键要素遏制化工事故的发生,采取针对性的应对措施,尽可能的降低化工事故,有效的降低人员伤亡及财产损失。
Abstract:
To study the accident evolution process after the earthquake disaster in the chemical industry park, the evolution process of secondary disasters of earthquake was analyzed by using the accident chain model, then it was transformed into the Bayesian network, and the valuing ranges of variables and state of each node were determined. The conditional probabilities of each node in the Bayesian network were obtained through the analysis on relevant literatures and expert empirical judgment. The posterior probability values of chemical accidents under different earthquake intensities were compared according to the reasoning strategy of Bayesian network, then the timeliness of emergency rescue and its influence on the occurrence probability of secondary disasters of earthquake were discussed. The occurrence of chemical accidents should be contained from the key factors, and the targeted countermeasures should be taken to reduce the chemical accidents as far as possible, so as to reduce the casualties and property loss effectively.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0801500)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-01-29