|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]舒畅,姚安林,韩昌柴,等.基于投影寻踪聚类的油气管道失效可能性评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(12):99-104.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.017]
　SHU Chang,YAO Anlin,HAN Changchai,et al.Assessment on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline based on projection pursuit cluster[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(12):99-104.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.017]
点击复制

基于投影寻踪聚类的油气管道失效可能性评价
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年12期
页码:
99-104
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Assessment on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline based on projection pursuit cluster
文章编号:
1673-193X(2016)-12-0099-06
作者:
舒畅1; 姚安林1; 2; 韩昌柴3; 徐涛龙1; 秦朝4
（1.西南石油大学 石油与天然气工程学院，四川 成都 610500；2.油气消防四川省重点实验室，四川 成都 610500；3.中国石油天然气集团西气东输管道公司，上海 200122；4.中国石油集团工程设计有限责任公司北京分公司，北京 100085）
Author(s):
SHU Chang1;  YAO Anlin1; 2;  HAN Changchai3;  XU Taolong1;  QIN Zhao4
(1. College of Petroleum & Natural gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China; 2. Oil and Gas Fire Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China; 3. PetroChina West-East Gas Pipeline Company, Shanghai 200122, China; 4. China Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd Beijing Company, Beijing 100085, China)
关键词:
油气管道; 失效可能性; 投影寻踪; 聚类; 量化分析
Keywords:
oil and gas pipeline;  failure probability;  projection pursuit;  cluster;  quantitative analysis
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.017
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为保障油气管道运行安全，将投影寻踪聚类的方法引入油气管道失效可能性评价中，从系统理论的角度将油气管道失效分为致灾因子危险性、承灾体的脆弱性和应对能力脆弱性3个子系统，据此建立油气管道失效可能性评估指标体系，然后基于投影寻踪聚类的失效可能性评价模型，对油气管道失效可能性进行量化分析，从而确定其失效可能性等级。实例分析表明，所建立的失效可能性评价模型能对油气管道失效可能性进行评价，可为管道的风险管理提供决策依据。
Abstract:
To ensure the safe operation of oil and gas pipeline, the method of projection pursuit cluster was introduced into the assessment on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline. The failure of oil and gas pipeline was divided into three subsystems, including the danger of hazard factors, the vulnerability of hazard bearing body and the vulnerability of response capacity from the perspective of system theory. Accordingly, an assessment index system on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline was established, and the quantitative analysis on failure probability of oil and gas pipeline was carried out using the assessment model of failure probability based on projection pursuit cluster, thus the grade of failure probability could be determined. The example analysis showed that the established assessment model can assess the failure probability of oil and gas pipeline, and it can provide decision basis for risk management of pipeline.

参考文献/References:

［1］徐涛龙,姚安林,曾祥国,等.基于灰色关联分析LNG接受终端人因事故辩识方法［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):97-101. XU Taolong, YAO Anlin, ZENG Xiangguo, et al. Human accidents identification method of LNG receiving terminal based on grey relational analysis ［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2011,7(9):97-101.
[2]陈利琼,张鹏,马剑林,等.油气管道风险的模糊综合评价方法探讨［J］.天然气工业,2003,23(2):117-118. CHEN Liqiong, ZHANG Peng, MA Jianlin, et al. Fuzzy integrative assessment of oil & gas pipeline risks［J］.Natural Gas Industry, 2003, 23(2):117-118.
[3]彭星煜,刘力升,吕娜,等.基于BP神经网络的油气长输管道失效概率预测［J］.全面腐蚀控制,2009,23(5):12-16. PENG Xingyu, LIU Lisheng, LYU Na, et al. Long-distanceoil & gas pipeline failure rate prediction using BP artificial neural network model［J］. Total Corrosion Control, 2009, 23(5):12-16.
[4]巩奕成,张永祥,丁飞,等.基于萤火虫算法的投影寻踪地下水水质评价方法［J］.中国矿业大学学报,2015,44(3):566-572. GONG Yicheng, ZHANG Yongxiang, DING Fei, et al. Projection pursuit model for assessment of groundwater quality based on firefly algorithm［J］. Journal of China University of Mining & Technology, 2015,44(3):566-572.
[5]付强,付红,王立坤，等.基于加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型在水质评价中的应用研究［J］.地理科学,2003,23(2):236-239. FU Qiang, FU Hong, WANG Likun, et al. Study on the PPE model based on RAGA to evaluating the water quality ［J］. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2003,23(2):236-239.
[6]王琼,朱令人.投影寻踪聚类在新疆地震预报中的应用［J］.内陆地震, 2005,19(1):8-15. WANG Qiong, ZHU Linggren.Application of the projection pursuit cluster on earthquake prediction in XinJiang［J］. Inland Earthquake, 2005, 19(1):8-15.
[7]梁煜峰,付建. 投影寻踪法和遗传算法在洪水预报中的应用［J］.安全与环境学报,2010(5)：37-40. LIANG Yufeng, FU Jian. Application of the projection pursuitand genetic algorithm in flood forecasting［J］. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2010(5)：37-40.
[8]Muhlbauer K W. Pipeline risk management manual (3rd Edition) ［M］. Houston: Gulf Publishing Company,2004: 21-42.
[9]黄亮亮,姚安林,鲜涛,等.考虑脆弱性的油气管道风险评估方法研究［J］.中国安全科学学报,2014,24(7):93-99. HUANG Liangliang, YAO Anlin, XIAN Tao, et al. Research on risk assessment method of oil & gas pipeline with consideration of vulnerability［J］. China Safety Science Journal, 2014,24(7):93-99.
[10]王顺久,张欣莉,丁晶,等.投影寻踪聚类模型及其应用［J］.长江科学院院报,2002,19(6):53-61. WANG Shunjiu, ZHANG Xinli, DING Jing, et al. Projection pursuit cluster model and its application［J］. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2002.19(6):53-61.
[11]付强,赵小勇. 投影寻踪模型原理及其应用［M］.北京:科学出版社, 2006.
[12]金菊良,魏一鸣,付强,等.农业生产力综合评价的投影寻踪模型［J］.农业系统科学与综合研究,2001,17(4):241-243. JIN JUliang, WEI Yiming, FU Qiang, et al. Projection pursuit model forcomprehensiveevaluation of agricultural productive capacity［J］. System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies, 2001.17(4):241-243.
[13]倪长健. 免疫进化算法［J］.西南交通大学学报, 2003,38(1):87-91. NI Changjian. Immune evolutionary algorithm［J］. Journal of Southwest Jiao Tong University, 2003,38(1):87-91.
[14]API 581, Risk-based inspection technology［S］. 2008.

相似文献/References:

[1]辜冬梅,姚安林,尹旭东,等.基于层次-模糊评价法的山区油气管道 地质灾害易发性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(5):52.
　GU Dong mei,YAO An lin,YIN Xu dong,et al.Study on occurrence of geological hazards for oil and gas pipelines through the mountains based on AHPfuzzy evaluation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(12):52.
[2]郑登锋,蒋金生,王明勇.基于风险矩阵和LOPA的风险评价系统在油气管道 的应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(10):76.
　ZHENG Deng feng,JIANG Jin sheng,WANG Ming yong.Study on application of risk evaluation system based on risk matrix and LOPA in oil and gas pipeline system[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(12):76.
[3]王全国,贺帅斌,党文义.油气管道安全预警技术性能评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(1):98.
　WANG Quan guo,HE Shuai bin,et al.Study on performance evaluation of safety prewarning technology on oil and gas pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(12):98.
[4]康乐,姚安林,关惠平,等.急倾斜煤层采空区地表移动盆地对油气管道安全影响分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(9):102.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.019]
　KANG Le,YAO An lin,GUAN Hui pin,et al.Safety influence analysis of subsidence trough on oil & gas pipeline in steeply inclined coalmining area[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(12):102.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.019]
[5]樊文有,陈 叶,李云海.基于地理信息系统的油气管道安全管理研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(4):175.
　FAN Wen you,CHEN Ye,Li Yun hai.Study on safety management system of gasoil pipeline based on GIS[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2009,5(12):175.
[6]鲜涛,姚安林,李熠辰,等.基于属性识别理论的油气管道施工质量风险评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(4):95.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.015]
　XIAN Tao,YAO An-lin,LI Yi-chen,et al.Risk assessment on constructing quality of oil & gas pipeline based on attribute recognition theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(12):95.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.015]
[7]王如君.灰色-马尔科夫链模型在埋地油气管道腐蚀预测中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(4):102.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.016]
　WANG Ru-jun,WANG Tian-yu.Application of grey Markov chain model in corrosion forecast of buried oil and gas pipelines[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(12):102.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.016]
[8]江文,蒋宏业,姚安林.水平定向钻穿越施工的失效可能性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(5):111.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.05.017]
　JIANG Wen,JIANG Hong-ye,YAO An-lin.Study on failure possibility of crossing construction by horizontal directional drilling[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(12):111.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.05.017]
[9]张杰,梁政,韩传军,等.落石冲击作用下架设油气管道响应分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(7):11.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.07.002]
　ZHANG Jie,LIANG Zheng,HAN Chuan-jun,et al.Analysis on response of overhead oil and gas pipeline impacted by rock-fall[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(12):11.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.07.002]
[10]冯晓东,张圣柱,王如君,等.加拿大油气管道安全管理体系及其启示[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(6):180.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.06.032]
　FENG Xiaodong,ZHANG Shengzhu,WANG Rujun,et al.Study on safety management system of oil and gas pipeline in Canada and its implications[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(12):180.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.06.032]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目（2011BAK06B01-11-01）
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-01-13