|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]吴彬彬,王金江,周伟,等.海洋平台泄漏火灾风险概率修正方法研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2025,21(8):54-62.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.08.007]
　WU Binbin,WANG Jinjiang,ZHOU Wei,et al.Research on modification methods for risk probability of leak-induced fire on offshore platforms[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2025,21(8):54-62.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.08.007]
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海洋平台泄漏火灾风险概率修正方法研究*

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
21
期数:
2025年8期
页码:
54-62
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2025-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on modification methods for risk probability of leak-induced fire on offshore platforms
文章编号:
1673-193X(2025)-08-0054-09
作者:
吴彬彬; 王金江; 周伟; 董嘉杰
（1.中国石油大学（北京） 安全与海洋工程学院,北京 102249；
2.国家市场监督管理总局重点实验室（油气生产装备质量检测与健康诊断），北京 102249；
3.中海油研究总院有限责任公司，北京 100029）
Author(s):
WU Binbin;  WANG Jinjiang;  ZHOU Wei;  DONG Jiajie
(1.College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China;
2.Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Production Equipment Quality Inspection and Health Diagnosis,State Administration for Market Regulation,Beijing 102249,China;
3.CNOOC Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100029,China)
关键词:
海洋平台; 风险概率计算; 多因素耦合; 风险分析; 泄漏火灾
Keywords:
offshore platforms;  risk probability calculation;  multi-factor coupling;  risk analysis;  leak-induced fire
分类号:
TE687；X928.7
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.08.007
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为解决我国海洋平台风险概率评估中存在的国外数据本土化不足及现有修正方法未考虑海洋场景下的高风险环境与风险耦合影响的问题，提出1种多风险因素耦合的海洋平台泄漏火灾风险概率修正方法；基于多因素耦合风险分析，系统分析导致泄漏事件的诸多风险因素；将多风险因素按照安全综合管理4要素解耦，得到风险概率修正需要考虑的4个维度，为风险概率计算奠定基础；以平台管道泄漏火灾过程为例验证该方法的可行性，将多因素耦合的修正方法应用至平台的风险概率计算中。研究结果表明：本文方法能够在平台历史失效数据缺失的情况下有效评估特定场景下的风险概率。研究结果可为海洋平台的安全管理提供更准确的决策参考。
Abstract:
In order to address the insufficient localization of foreign data and the neglect of high-risk marine environments coupled with risk interactions in existing risk probability assessment methods for China’s offshore platforms,this study proposes a modified risk probability assessment method for leak-induced fires incorporating multi-factor coupling.Through systematic analysis of risk factors contributing to leakage events based on multi-factor coupling risk assessment,the key risk factors were decoupled according to the four pillars of safety management.This establishes a four-dimensional framework for risk probability modification,laying the foundation for risk quantification.Using a pipeline leak-induced fire scenario on an offshore platform as a validation case,the multi-factor coupling modification method was applied to platform risk probability calculations.Results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively assesses scenario-specific risk probabilities despite the absence of historical failure data.These findings provide more precise decision-making support for offshore platform safety management.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2025-04-30
* 基金项目： 国家科技重大专项项目（2024ZD1403305）；中国海洋石油集团有限公司“十四五”重大科技课题（KJGG-2023-17-01）
作者简介： 吴彬彬，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为海洋平台风险评估。
通信作者： 王金江，博士，教授，主要研究方向为设备安全监测与智能诊断、安全大数据与人工智能等。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-09-01