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[1]郭军,金彦,王帆,等.基于Logistic回归分析的煤自燃多级预警方法研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(2):88-93.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.02.013]
　GUO Jun,JIN Yan,WANG Fan,et al.Research on multi-level warning method of coal spontaneous combustion based on Logistic regression analysis[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(2):88-93.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.02.013]
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基于Logistic回归分析的煤自燃多级预警方法研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
18
期数:
2022年2期
页码:
88-93
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2022-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on multi-level warning method of coal spontaneous combustion based on Logistic regression analysis
文章编号:
1673-193X(2022)-02-0088-06
作者:
郭军; 金彦; 王帆; 杨盼盼; 孙明福
（1.西安科技大学 安全科学与工程学院，陕西 西安 710054；
2.靖远煤电股份有限公司 红会一矿，甘肃 白银 730614；
3.靖远煤电股份有限公司 王家山煤矿，甘肃 白银 730614）
Author(s):
GUO Jun;  JIN Yan;  WANG Fan;  YANG Panpan;  SUN Mingfu
(1.College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an Shaanxi 710054,China;
2.Honghui No.1 Coal Mine,Jingyuan Coal and Electricity Co.,Ltd.,Baiyin Gansu 730614,China;
3.Wangjiashan Coal Mine,Jingyuan Coal and Electricity Co.,Ltd.,Baiyin Gansu 730614,China)
关键词:
煤自燃; 精细划分; 预警体系; 指标气体; Logistic函数
Keywords:
coal spontaneous combustion;  fine division;  warning system;  index gas;  Logistic function
分类号:
X936TD75+2
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.02.013
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为实现煤自燃过程的精细分级与自燃隐患的精确预警，保障井下煤自燃防治工作有效开展和煤炭资源安全开采。以甘肃王家山矿202工作面煤样为测试对象，采用煤自然发火试验与程序升温试验手段模拟煤体自然发火过程。测定煤自燃指标气体等特性参数数据，分析相关指标气体特征，将煤自燃过程划分为稳定、波动和剧烈反应3大区间。通过处理指标数据以比值、Logistic函数拟合的方式重构数据曲线（R2接近0.99），结合“潜伏、氧化、自热、临界、热解、裂变、燃烧”7阶段精细划分理论与方法，确定煤自燃各反应阶段内的风险等级及指标阈值：预警初值（O2与CO关联数据点）；低风险阶段（φ(CO)/φ(O2)，0.1~4）；较大风险阶段（C2H4>0.000 6%）；重大风险阶段（φ(C2H4)/φ(C2H6)>600）；灾变阶段（浓烟），最终构建了7阶段煤自燃隐患预警体系。研究结果表明：该预警体系能够通过井下气样监测数据快速确定隐患区域内的风险等级，并结合指标Logistic拟合曲线推断隐患发展趋势，对现场煤自燃准确预警与精准防控具有重要的实际指导意义。
Abstract:
In order to realize the fine classification of coal spontaneous combustion process and accurate warning of spontaneous combustion potential hazards,and ensure the effective development of underground coal spontaneous combustion prevention and control and the safe mining of coal resources,taking the coal samples from 202 working face of Wangjiashan coal mine in Gansu as the test objects,the spontaneous combustion process of coal was simulated by using the coal spontaneous combustion test and programmed temperature test.The characteristic parameter data such as coal spontaneous combustion index gas was measured,then the characteristics of related index gases were analyzed,and the spontaneous combustion process of coal was divided into three major intervals of stabilization,fluctuation and violent reaction.The data curve (R2 close to 0.99) was reconstructed by processing the index data in the ways of ratio and Logistic function fitting,and combined with the 7 stages (latency,oxidation,self-heating,criticality,pyrolysis,fission,combustion) fine division theory and method,the risk levels and index thresholds in each reaction stage of coal spontaneous combustion were determined,including the initial value of warning (data point of O2 associated with CO),low risk stage (φ(CO)/φ(O2),0.1~4),greater risk stage (C2H4>0.000 6%),major risk stage (φ(C2H4)/φ(C2H6)>600),and disaster stage (dense smoke).Finally,a 7-stage warning system of coal spontaneous combustion potential hazard was built.The research results showed that the warning system could quickly determine the risk level in the hazard area through the monitoring data of underground gas samples,and deduce the development trend of potential hazard combined with the index Logistic fitting curve.It has important practical guidance significance for the accurate warning and precise prevention and control of on-site coal spontaneous combustion.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2021-04-18；网络首发日期： 2022-01-24
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0808201)；国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（52004209）；国家自然科学基金项目（51974240）
作者简介： 郭军，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为煤火灾害防控及应急救援技术。
通信作者： 金彦，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为煤火灾害防控及应急救援技术。
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-03-18