|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]孙华丽,项美康,薛耀锋.超大城市公共安全风险评估、归因与防范[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(8):74-79.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.08.012]
　SUN Huali,XIANG Meikang,XUE Yaofeng.Assessment, attribution and prevention of public safety risk in megacity[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(8):74-79.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.08.012]
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超大城市公共安全风险评估、归因与防范
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
14
期数:
2018年8期
页码:
74-79
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2018-08-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Assessment, attribution and prevention of public safety risk in megacity
文章编号:
1673-193X(2018)-08-0074-06
作者:
孙华丽1; 项美康1; 薛耀锋2
（1.上海大学 管理学院，上海 200444；2. 华东师范大学 教育信息技术学系，上海 200062)
Author(s):
SUN Huali1;  XIANG Meikang1;  XUE Yaofeng2
(1. School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China;2. Department of Educational Information Technology, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China)
关键词:
超大城市; 公共安全; 评估体系; 主成分分析
Keywords:
megacity;  public safety;  assessment system;  principal component analysis
分类号:
X92；D035
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.08.012
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了科学评价超大城市公共安全风险，从人口状况、能力指标和脆弱性指标着手，建立超大城市公共安全评估指标体系。基于上海市2007—2016年的部分数据，采用主成分分析法对上海市公共安全风险17个指标进行测度，找出影响公共安全水平的重要因子。同时，基于统计数据分析了公共安全事件风险源和5个潜在风险点，并提出防范建议。研究结果表明：近10 a来，上海公共安全状况存在明显改善，且地区经济与人口因子、公共城建与生态能力因子是影响上海城市公共安全风险最主要的2个因素；汽车交通事故、电气原因造成的火灾事故、盗窃、殴打他人是扰乱城市公共安全最突出的因素。
Abstract:
To assess the public safety risk of megacity scientifically, starting from the population situation, ability index and vulnerability index, an index system of public safety assessment for the megacity was established. Based on partial data of Shanghai from 2007 to 2016, 17 indexes of public safety risk in Shanghai were measured by using the principal component analysis method, and the important factors influencing the public safety level were found out. Meanwhile, the risk sources and 5 potential risk points of public safety events were analyzed based on the statistical data, and the prevention suggestions were put forward. The results showed that in the recent 10 years, the public safety situation of Shanghai improved obviously, and the regional economic and population factor and the public construction and ecological ability factor were the major factors influencing the urban public safety risk of Shanghai. The motor traffic accidents, fire accidents caused by electrical reasons, theft and assaulting others were the most outstanding factors disturbing the urban public safety.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目(71203134)；上海市哲学社会科学规划系列课题(2015XAF002)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-09-03