|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]黄勇,陈海群,王凯全.Fault Tree+软件在长输天然气管道定量风险分析中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(1):92-97.
　HUANG Yong,CHEN Hai qun,WANG Kai quan.Application of Fault Tree + software for quantitative risk analysisof long distance natual gas pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):92-97.
点击复制

Fault Tree+软件在长输天然气管道定量风险分析中的应用
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
9
期数:
2013年1期
页码:
92-97
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2013-01-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Application of Fault Tree + software for quantitative risk analysisof long distance natual gas pipeline
文章编号:
1673-193X(2013)-01-0092-06
作者:
黄勇1; 2; 陈海群1; 王凯全1
（1 常州大学，江苏 常州〓213164; 2 南京理工大学，江苏 南京〓210094）
Author(s):
HUANG Yong1; 2;  CHEN Hai qun1; WANG Kai quan1
(1Changzhou University, Changzhou Jiangsu 213164,China;2 Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210094,China)
关键词:
长输管道; 风险分析; 断裂; 故障树; 事件树; 失效概率
Keywords:
long distance pipeline;  risk analysis;  fracture;  fault tree;  event tree;  failure probability
分类号:
X913.4
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了确定影响长输天然气管道系统发生事故的各种因素，减少事故发生所造成的损失，保证管道安全运行，借助Fault Tree+软件对天然气管道系统进行了定量风险分析。根据相关资料，建立了长输天然气管道系统的故障树，明确了44个基本事件的概率，并运用Fault Tree+软件分析、计算功能，确定了管道穿孔、断裂等中间事件以及管道失效顶事件的概率。再以“断裂泄漏”事故开展事件树分析，建立“立即点燃”、“延迟点燃”等事件，并推导了可能导致的所有后果及概率，计算出“延迟点燃”事件没有发生以及发生“爆炸”事故的概率。最后以经济损失来度量“断裂泄漏”各后果事件的失效风险，累加每个后果事件的经济损失，得到某段天然气管道“断裂泄漏”事故的风险值。
Abstract:
Fault Tree+ software was applied on quantitative risk analysis in pipeline system to safeguard long distance pipeline system operation by the identification various factors influencing long distance natural gas pipeline system and to minimize the loss caused by occurrence of accidents. A fault tree of natural gas pipeline system was established according to related researches.Occurrence probabilities were determined for intermediate events of the pipeline perforation and/or fracture and of top event of failure，and 44 basic events were definituded using powerful analytic and computational functionality of Fault Tree+.A event tree analysis was demonstrated by taking "fracture leakage" accident of some pipeline system as an example, in which the following events such as ignition instantly,delayed ignition and explosion were established and all the consequent situations and correspond probabilities were deduced.Probabilities of events including no delayed ignition and explosion accident were calculated by Fault Tree+ software.The ultimate risk values of "fracture leakage" risk for a certain segment of natural gas pipeline system were determined according to the economic loss of the "fracture leakage" event by the summation of the mathematic expectation of the economic loss of each consequence events using the calculation formula of the total risk value.

参考文献/References:

-

相似文献/References:

[1]张启波,王兰芝.丙烯腈装置安全预警及控制技术研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):114.
　ZHANG Qi-bo,WANG Lan-zhi.Research on safety prior-warning and control technology of acrylonitrile plant[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(1):114.
[2]何雪松.地铁大断面隧道盾构过江风险分析及数值模拟[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(3):33.
　HE Xue-song.Risk analysis and numerical simulation on large cross-section shielding tunnel through river[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(1):33.
[3]都书海.工作安全分析在管理实践中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(7):204.
　DU Shu-hai.Theory and application of JSA management in practice[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):204.
[4]曹涛,张华兵,周利剑,等.HAZOP在油气管道站场风险分析中的应用实践[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):129.
　CAO Tao,ZHANG Hua-bing,ZHOU Li-jian,et al.Application of HAZOP study in risk analysis of pipeline station[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):129.
[5]吴〓起,姜〓平,冷世荣,等.长输天然气管道事故泄漏速率算法改进研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(9):38.
　WU Qi,JIANG Ping,LENG Shi rong,et al.Study on improved algorithm of leaking velocity in longdistance CNG pipe accident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(1):38.
[6]程民生.火电厂脱硝工程液氨泄漏事故风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(2):140.
　CHENG Min sheng.Risk analysis of the liquid ammonia leakage accident in the DeNOx system of themal power plant[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):140.
[7]花迎春,邹葆华,田玲玲.航空维修系统危险源识别和风险分析方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(3):104.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.03.18]
　HUA Ying chun,ZOU Bao hua,TIAN Ling ling.Method of hazard recognition and risk analysis in aviation maintenance system[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):104.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.03.18]
[8]彭鹏,赵东风.基于风险的化工园区企业准入框架分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(4):104.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.04.019]
　PENG Peng,ZHAO Dong feng.Study on access of enterprises in chemical parks based on risk[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):104.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.04.019]
[9]方来华.危化品生产储存使用全过程安全监控与监管系统[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(7):114.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.07.020]
　FANG Lai hua.Safety system for monitoring and management on production, storage and use of hazardous chemicals[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):114.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.07.020]
[10]王宇航  ,杨乃莲,任智刚,等.风电行业安全生产风险特征与对策[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(8):156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.08.029]
　WANG Yu hang,YANG Nai lian,REN Zhi gang,et al.Risk characters and countermeasures on work safety of wind energy industry[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.08.029]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2012-07-06
更新日期/Last Update: 2013-01-31