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[1]蔡志勇,吕惠,周睿,等.森林航空消防风险与作战方案的综合模糊评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(7):201-206.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.029]
　CAI Zhiyong,LYU Hui,ZHOU Rui,et al.Comprehensive fuzzy assessment on risk and combat plan of forest aviation fire fighting[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(7):201-206.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.029]
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森林航空消防风险与作战方案的综合模糊评估
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
18
期数:
2022年7期
页码:
201-206
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2022-07-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Comprehensive fuzzy assessment on risk and combat plan of forest aviation fire fighting
文章编号:
1673-193X(2022)-07-0201-06
作者:
蔡志勇; 吕惠; 周睿; 裴沛
（1.中航通飞华南飞机工业有限公司，广东 珠海 519000；
2.中国特种飞行器研究所，湖北 荆门 448035；
3.清华大学 工程物理系公共安全研究院,北京 100084；
4.清华大学 城市综合应急科学北京市重点实验室，北京 100084）
Author(s):
CAI Zhiyong;  LYU Hui;  ZHOU Rui;  PEI Pei
(1.AVIC General Huanan Aircraft Industry Co.,Ltd.,Zhuhai Guangdong 519000,China;
2.AVIC Special Vehicle Research Institute,Jingmen Hubei 448035,China;
3.Institute of Public Safety Research,Department of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;
4.Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
关键词:
森林航空消防; 风险评估; 德尔菲法; 层次分析法; 模糊综合评价法
Keywords:
forest aviation fire fighting;  risk assessment;  Delphi method;  analytic hierarchy process (AHP);  fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE)
分类号:
X949
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.029
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了系统研究森林航空消防中突出而复杂的安全问题，提出1种运用危险性分析法、德尔菲法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法的复合性方法，进行森林航空消防风险分类辨识、指标体系构建与重要度评价，对给定任务场景下的拟定作战方案进行模糊综合评估，分析识别作战方案中的薄弱环节，并有针对性地提出改进优化的策略和建议。将该方法应用于某案例得到相应的评估建议：作战方案中需要改进优化的方面依次为飞机因素、飞行员因素、管理因素，其中飞机失速速度、零件耐温极限、生理状态、净空条件是要着重核查并优化的关键性指标。研究结果表明：该方法可为森林航空消防安全评估和作战方案辅助决策提供参考和支撑，具有一定的应用价值。
Abstract:
In order to systematically study the prominent and complex safety problems in the forest aviation fire fighting,a composite method by using the risk analysis method,Delphi method,analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method was put forward.It could conduct the classification identification,index system construction and importance evaluation of the forest aviation fire fighting risk,carry out the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the proposed combat plan under the given task scenario,analyze and identify the weak links in the combat plan,and put forward the targeted strategies and suggestions for improvement and optimization.This method was applied to a certain case,and the corresponding evaluation recommendations were obtained.The aspects to be improved and optimized in the combat plan were in sequence of the aircraft factor,the pilot factor,and the management factor.Among them,the stall speed of aircraft,the temperature resistance limit of parts,the pilot status,and the clearance conditions were the key indexes need to be checked and optimized with emphasis.The method can provide reference and support for the safety assessment of forest aviation fire fighting and the assistant decision-making of combat plans,and has certain application value.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2021-09-17
作者简介： 蔡志勇，博士，研究员级高级工程师，主要研究方向为飞机航空电子电气系统集成。
通信作者： 周睿，博士，副研究员，主要研究方向为灾害动力学与公共安全。
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-08-10