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[1]张认认,杨尚谕,王建军,等.基于蒙特卡洛方法的油气井管柱可靠性评估*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(12):55-59.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.12.009]
　ZHANG Renren,YANG Shangyu,WANG Jianjun,et al.Reliability assessment of oil and gas well string based on Monte Carlo method[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(12):55-59.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.12.009]
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基于蒙特卡洛方法的油气井管柱可靠性评估*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年12期
页码:
55-59
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2021-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Reliability assessment of oil and gas well string based on Monte Carlo method
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-12-0055-05
作者:
张认认; 杨尚谕; 王建军; 赵楠; 徐长峰; 李新宏
（1.西安建筑科技大学 资源工程学院，陕西 西安 710055；
2.中国石油集团工程材料研究院有限公司 石油管材及装备材料服役行为与结构安全国家重点实验室，陕西 西安 710077；
3.中国石油新疆油田分公司呼图壁储气库作业区，新疆 呼图壁 831200）
Author(s):
ZHANG Renren;  YANG Shangyu;  WANG Jianjun;  ZHAO Nan;  XU Changfeng;  LI Xinhong
(1.School of Resources Engineering,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an Shaanxi 710055,China;
2.State Key Laboratory of Performance and Structural Safety for Petroleum Tubular Goods and Equipment Materials,CNPC Tubular Goods Research Institute,Xi’an Shaanxi 710077,China;
3.Hutubi Gas Storage Operation Area,CNPC Xinjiang Oilfield Branch,Hutubi Xinjiang 831200,China)
关键词:
管柱可靠性; 数据统计; 变量敏感性; 安全系数
Keywords:
string reliability;  data statistics;  variable sensitivity;  safety factor
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.12.009
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为提高油气井管柱服役的安全性，采用数据统计与可靠性理论评估油气井管柱可靠性。首先，识别影响管柱外载及其参数的变量，构建油气井管柱安全极限状态方程；然后，采集模型变量数据，确定变量分布与参数，形成油气井管柱可靠性数值模型；最后，通过蒙特卡洛方法计算影响管柱可靠性的关键变量和不同置信度水平下管柱剩余强度分布及安全系数取值。结果表明：目标区域油气井管柱剩余强度符合正态分布，得到不同置信度水平下管柱的可靠度，管柱的安全系数取值范围可满足管柱安全设计要求，所构建的方法可为实际生产中油气井井筒管柱安全评价提供技术支撑。
Abstract:
To improve the operational safety of oil and gas well string,the data statistics and reliability theory were used to assess the reliability of oil and gas well string.Firstly,the variables affecting the external applied load of string and its parameters were identified,and a limit state equation of oil and gas well string safety was built.Secondly,the variables data of model were collected,and the variables distribution and parameters were determined,and a numerical model for the reliability of oil and gas well string was established.Finally,the Monte Carlo method was adopted to calculate the key variables affecting the string reliability,as well as the residual strength distribution of string under different confidence levels and the values of safety factor.The results showed that the residual strength of oil and gas well string in the target area followed the normal distribution,and the string reliability under different confidence levels were obtained.The valuing range of safety factor of the string could meet the requirement of safety design.Overall,the constructed method can provide technical support for the safety evaluation of oil and gas well string in the actual production.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-12-14
* 基金项目： 陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(20JK0729)；陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2020Z188)
作者简介： 张认认，硕士，助理工程师，主要研究方向为油气管柱安全可靠性。
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-01-16