|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]黄浪,吴超.事故致因模型体系及建模一般方法与发展趋势[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(2):10-16.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.02.002]
　HUANG Lang,WU Chao.Study on system of accident-causing model and its general modeling methods and development trend[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(2):10-16.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.02.002]
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事故致因模型体系及建模一般方法与发展趋势
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
13
期数:
2017年2期
页码:
10-16
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2017-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on system of accident-causing model and its general modeling methods and development trend
文章编号:
1673-193X(2017)-02-0010-07
作者:
黄浪; 吴超
中南大学 资源与安全工程学院，湖南 长沙 410083
Author(s):
HUANG Lang;  WU Chao
School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha Hunan 410083, China
关键词:
安全科学; 事故致因模型; 理论建模; 方法论
Keywords:
safety science;  accident-causing model;  theoretical modeling;  methodology
分类号:
X913
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.02.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为完善事故致因建模的基础理论体系，从微观、中观与宏观3个层面归纳国内外现有的50余种事故致因模型，并以“点-线-面-体”为主线论述事故致因模型的立体网状结构体系。基于此，从方法学的视角论述事故致因建模的理论基础，并提炼相似比较法、概率统计法等5种一般建模方法。最后分析新形势下事故致因模型及其建模方法的发展趋势。研究结果系统的梳理与归纳了现有事故致因模型及其结构体系，完善了事故致因建模的方法论，可为事故致因建模的研究与实践提供基础理论指导。
Abstract:
In order to improve the basic theory system of accident-causing modeling, more than fifty existing accident-causing models were generalized from three levels, which are micro-level, meso-level, and macro-level. Then, the stereoscopic network structure system of accident-causing model was analyzed with "point-line-area-body" as principal line. Based on this, the theoretical basis of accident-causing modeling was discussed from the perspective of methodology, and five general modeling methods were extracted, such as similarity-comparison method, probability-statistics method, etc. Finally, the development trend of accident-causing model and its modeling methods under new situation were analyzed. The results summarized the existing accident-causing models and its structural system systematically, improved the methodology of accident-causing modeling, which can provide basic theoretical guidance for the research and practice of accident-causing modeling.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金重点项目(51534008)；中南大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2016zzts099，2016zzts458)
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-03-29