|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]马剑,叶新,林鹏.基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(1):134-140.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.01.022]
 MA Jian,YE Xin,LIN Peng.Safety evaluation method of subway fire based on evidence theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(1):134-140.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.01.022]
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基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
13
期数:
2017年1期
页码:
134-140
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2017-01-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Safety evaluation method of subway fire based on evidence theory
文章编号:
1673-193X(2017)-01-0134-07
作者:
马剑1叶新1林鹏2
1.西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院 综合交通智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川 成都 610031;2.西南交通大学 地球与环境科学学院 高速铁路运营安全空间信息技术国家地方联合工程实验室,四川 成都 610031
Author(s):
MA Jian1 YE Xin1 LIN Peng2
1. National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, School of Transportation & Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 610031, China;2. State-province Joint Engineering Laboratory of Spatial Informat
关键词:
D-S证据理论地铁火灾安全评价
Keywords:
D-S evidence theory subway fire safety evaluation
分类号:
X913.4
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.01.022
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了评价地铁系统中具有显著随机性的潜在风险因素对地铁火灾安全的影响水平,引入D-S证据理论,提出1种基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法。通过查阅地铁建筑相关资料,建立包括“人、机、管、环”4大方面的地铁火灾安全评价指标体系;在此基础上,合理运用信任函数与似然函数,计算评价因素的安全上下界极限,将一般评价中遇到的不确定结果进行可靠的数值转换,从而量化评价结果;采用证据融合算法,综合考虑不同专家给出的多组检查结果在地铁火灾安全评价中的信度,提高最终评分的可靠程度。实例分析表明:基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法,能够较好地量化与融合不确定性风险因素。
Abstract:
In order to evaluate the effect of potential risk factors with obvious randomness in subway system on the subway fire safety, a safety evaluation method of subway fire based on evidence theory was put forward by introducing into the D-S evidence theory. An index system for safety evaluation of subway fire was established by consulting the related documents of subway buildings, which includes four aspects, i.e., man, machine, management and environment. On this basis, the upper and lower safety limits of the evaluation factors were calculated by using the belief function and the likelihood function reasonably. The reliable numerical conversion was conducted on the uncertain results in the general evaluation, so as to quantify the evaluation results. The reliability degree of the final score was improved by using the evidence fusion algorithm and comprehensively considering the reliability of multiple groups of test results by various experts in safety evaluation of subway fire. The case analysis showed that the safety evaluation method of subway fire based on evidence theory can better quantify and fuse the uncertain risk factors.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金(71473207,71103148,51178445);科技部国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2016YFC0802209)
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-03-02