|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]程明,梁文娟.民航安全状况与社会经济指标关联分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(1):158-162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.01.030]
　CHENG Ming,LIANG Wenjuan.Association analysis on civil aviation safety situation and social-economic indexes[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(1):158-162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.01.030]
点击复制

民航安全状况与社会经济指标关联分析
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年1期
页码:
158-162
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-01-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Association analysis on civil aviation safety situation and social-economic indexes
文章编号:
1673-193X（2016）-01-0158-05
作者:
程明; 梁文娟
（中国民航大学 民航安全科学研究所，天津 300300）
Author(s):
CHENG Ming;  LIANG Wenjuan
(Research Institute of Civil Aviation Safety, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China)
关键词:
安全; 民用航空; 社会经济指标; 多元线性回归; ARIMA模型
Keywords:
safety;  civil aviation;  society-economic index;  multiple linear regression;  ARIMA model
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.01.030
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了分析中国民航的安全趋势，基于中国民航1995-2014年安全生产历史数据和民航安全运行关系密切的26项社会经济指标，利用因子分析、相关系数等数学方法，建立了多元线性回归模型分析民航安全状况与社会经济指标的管理关联性。该模型表明对民航安全具有显著影响的社会经济指标包括国民经济、产业结构和人员素质。通过对比安全生产指标的拟合值和实际值，分析民航安全趋势的变化规律，并利用自回归移动平均模型预测2015-2018年民航安全生产指标值。计算结果显示该时间段内民航安全生产指标将处于历史高位，且呈现缓慢上升趋势。最后给出了针对行业安全监管、安全运行等方面的改进建议。
Abstract:
In order to analyze the safety trend of civil aviation in China, based on the historical work safety data of Chinese civil aviation industry in 1995-2014 and 26 social-economic indexes closely related to safe operation of civil aviation, by using the mathematical methods such as factor analysis and correlation coefficient, a multiple linear regression model was established to analyze the management association of civil aviation safety situation and social-economic indexes. The model showed that the social-economic indexes with significant influence to civil aviation safety included the national economy, industrial structure and personnel quality. By comparing the fitting values with the practical values of work safety indexes, the change laws of civil aviation safety trend were analyzed, and the value of civil aviation work safety index in 2015-2018 was predicted by using the autoregressive integrated moving average model. The results showed that the civil aviation work safety index in this period would be at historical high level, and presented a slow rising trend. At last, the improvement suggestions about industrial safety y supervision and safe operation were put forward.

参考文献/References:

［1］王显政,等. 安全生产与经济社会发展报告［M］. 北京: 煤炭工业出版社, 2006:5-16.
［2］韩光胜,等. 试论统计学理论在安全经济分析中的应用［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术，2008，4(1):74-77． HAN Guangsheng,CHEN Guohua, CHEN Qingguang,et al. Discussion on application of statistic theory in safety economic analysis ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology ，2008，4(1):74-77.
［3］黄盛初, 周心权. 安全生产与经济社会发展多元回归分析［J］. 煤炭学报, 2005,30(5) :580-584. HUANG Shengchu, ZHOU Xinquan, ZHANG Binchuan. Multiple regression analysis on occupational safety and economic and social development. Journal of China Coal Society, 2005,30(5) :580-584.
［4］朱庆芳,吴寒光.社会指标体系［M］.北京:中国社会科学出版社,2001.
［5］国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴1995-中国统计年鉴2014［M］. 北京:中国统计出版社,1995-2014.
［6］欧韬,周长春. 基于神经网络的民航安全态势评估模型及仿真［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术，2011，7(2):34-41. OU Tao, ZHOU Chang chun. Situation assessment model of civil aviation safety based on neural network and its simulation. Journal of Safety Science and Technology，2011，7(2):34-41.
［7］LEVESON N G． A new accident model for engineering safer systems［J］． Safety Science，2004，42(4):237-270.
［8］HASLAM R A， HIDE S A， GIBB A G F，et al． Contributing factors in construction accidents［J］． Applied Ergonomics， 2005，36(4):401-415.
［9］张文彤. SPSS统计分析高级教程 ［M ］. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2004.
［10］于秀林, 任雪松. 多元统计分析 ［M ］. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1999.
［11］KASAI N， MATSUHASHI S， SEKINE K． Accident occurrence model for the risk analysis of industrial facilities［J］ ． Reliability Engineering ＆ System Safety，2013，114(6):71-74.
［12］甘旭升，端木京顺，高建国,等． 基于ARIMA模型的航空装备事故时序预测［J］． 中国安全科学学报，2012，22(3):97-101. GAN Xusheng, DUANMU Jingshun, GAO Jianuo, et al. Time series prediction of aviation equipment accident based on ARIMA model ［J］. China Safety Science Journal，2012，22(3):97-101.
［13］郑向阳，李正君． 基于ARIMA的安全生产事故预测与实证研究［J］． 工业安全与环保，2015，41(3):78-80. ZHENG Xiangyang, LI Zhengjun. Prediction of production safety accident and empirical research based on ARIMA［J］. Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection，2015，41(3):78-80.

相似文献/References:

[1]李红民.FTA在高层建筑防火安全管理中的运用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):153.
　LI Hong-min.Application of FTA in fire prevention management of high-rise building analysis[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(1):153.
[2]蔡勇,姚向宇.关于火电基建项目中安全管理工作的探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):165.
　CAI Yong,YAO Xiang-yu.Discussing about the security management of capital construction project in thermal power plant[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(1):165.
[3]刘伟虹.从尊重生命谈企业安全教育培训[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):169.
　LIU Wei-hong.Form the dignity of life to discuss the enterprise safety education[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(1):169.
[4]史亚杰,陈艳秋.航空安全信息管理的问题与对策[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(3):116.
　SHI Ya-jie,CHEN Yan-qiu.Problems and countermeasures on aviation safety information management[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(1):116.
[5]伍彬彬,李竞,冀铮,等.毒气泄漏事故监测预警系统的研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(5):52.
　WU Bin-bin,LI Jing,JI Zheng,et al.Study on monitoring and predicting platform of toxic gas leakage accident situation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):52.
[6]王瑜,刘毅.欧美、日本与中国个体防护标准比对[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):76.
　WANG Yu,LIU Yi.Comparison of personal protective standards in Europe, America, Japan and China[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(1):76.
[7]刘杰.工作安全分析（JSA）模式在施工现场实践研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):190.
　LIU Jie.The Practicable Research on Job Safety Analysis Format in Construction Project Area[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):190.
[8]孙有力.推进企业安全自主型员工队伍建设[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):221.
　SUN You-li.Promote construction of safety independent staff[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):221.
[9]彭建华.公路建设项目安全生产预警机制研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):203.
　PENG Jian-hua.Study on safety early-warning mechanism of highway construction project[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):203.
[10]郭强,冯显富.石化工程建设项目安全管理的内部控制研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):208.
　GUO Qiang,FENG Xian-fu.Study on internal control for safety management of petrochemical construction projects[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):208.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
民航局应用技术研发项目（20150204）；中央高校基本科研业务费项目（3122014D04）
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-03-01