|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]金辰浩,李铁,关磊,等.基于贝叶斯网络的储油罐区事故情景分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(8):120-128.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.08.016]
　JIN Chenhao,LI Tie,GUAN Lei,et al.Scenario analysis of oil storage tank farm accidents based on Bayesian network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(8):120-128.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.08.016]
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基于贝叶斯网络的储油罐区事故情景分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
20
期数:
2024年8期
页码:
120-128
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2024-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Scenario analysis of oil storage tank farm accidents based on Bayesian network
文章编号:
1673-193X(2024)-08-0120-09
作者:
金辰浩; 李铁; 关磊; 史伟静; 刘亮
（1.北京科技大学 土木与资源工程学院，北京 100083；
2.中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012；
3.国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司，北京 100028）
Author(s):
JIN Chenhao;  LI Tie;  GUAN Lei;  SHI Weijing;  LIU Liang
(1.School of Civil and Resource Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;
2.China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China;
3.National Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline Network Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100028,China)
关键词:
汽油储罐; 池火灾; 多米诺效应; 情景构建; 贝叶斯网络
Keywords:
gasoline storage tank;  pool fire;  domino effect;  scenario construction;  Bayesian network
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.08.016
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为确定储油罐区事故引发多米诺效应中各关键节点因素的重要性，基于情景构建过程中不同发展阶段的孕灾环境、处置措施和演化结果等要素，引入贝叶斯网络方法，提出1种在储油罐区事故情景构建下的演化网络，通过敏感性和影响强度分析，筛选出事故发展过程中的关键节点，并通过提炼事故支链来论证事故演化网络构建的合理性。研究结果表明：在事故进程中，火灾熄灭、火势隔离、人员撤离、危化品残存、全员撤离、组织搜救节点因素对多米诺效应的影响较大；提炼的各事故支链符合情景构建演化趋势，说明该事故演化网络具备一定合理性。研究结果可为储油罐区事故应急辅助决策技术的建设提供支持和参考。
Abstract:
In order to determine the importance of various key nodes of the domino effect triggered by tank farm accidents,an evolution network under the scenario construction of oil storage tank farm accidents was proposed by introducing into the Bayesian network method based on the elements of disaster-inducing environment,disposal measures and evolution results at different development stages of scenario construction.Through the sensitivity and impact intensity analysis,the key nodes in the accident development process were screened out,and the accident branch chain was refined to demonstrate the reasonableness of the construction of accident evolution network.The results show that in the process of accident,the fire extinguishing,fire isolation,personnel evacuation,residual of hazardous chemicals,full evacuation,and organization of search and rescue nodes have a greater impact on the domino phenomenon,and each accident branch conforms to the evolution trend of scenario construction.The research results can provide support and reference for the construction of accident emergency assistant decision-making technology.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2024-03-11
作者简介： 金辰浩，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为危险化学品事故应急管理。
通信作者： 李铁，博士，教授，主要研究方向为矿山动力灾害防治、灾害与事故应急管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-08-26