|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]乔建刚,王傑,岳凌峰.基于随机森林的高速公路运营隧道风险判别法则研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(9):195-202.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.09.028]
　QIAO Jiangang,WANG Jie,YUE Lingfeng.Research on risk discrimination rule of expressway operating tunnel based on random forest[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(9):195-202.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.09.028]
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基于随机森林的高速公路运营隧道风险判别法则研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
18
期数:
2022年9期
页码:
195-202
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2022-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on risk discrimination rule of expressway operating tunnel based on random forest
文章编号:
1673-193X(2022)-09-0195-08
作者:
乔建刚; 王傑; 岳凌峰
（1.河北工业大学 土木与交通学院，天津 300401；
2.中交建冀交高速公路投资发展有限公司，河北 石家庄 050000)
Author(s):
QIAO Jiangang;  WANG Jie;  YUE Lingfeng
(1.School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;
2.CCCC Jijiao Expressway Investment Development Co.,Ltd.,Shijiazhuang Hebei 050000,China)
关键词:
安全工程; 高速公路; 运营隧道; 随机森林; 风险判别法则; 严重程度
Keywords:
safety engineering;  expressway;  operating tunnel;  random forest;  risk discrimination rule;  severity
分类号:
X947
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.09.028
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为快速、准确识别山区高速公路隧道不同区段风险因素组合，基于交通事故调研数据，分析其时空变化规律；从人-车-路-环境角度系统筛选风险影响因素，采用随机森林理论构建风险等级预测模型；以决策树与规则相互关系为基础，结合自变量重要评分法，提出基于随机森林的高速公路运营隧道风险判别法则。研究结果表明：判别法则集预测精度较好且运行时间短，能够明确高速公路不同隧道区段事故成因，为预防隧道严重交通事故发生提供参考。
Abstract:
In order to quickly and accurately identify the combination of risk factors in different sections of mountain expressway tunnels,the temporal and spatial variation law was analyzed based on the survey data of traffic accidents.From the perspectives of people,vehicles,roads and environments,the risk influencing factors were systematically screened,and a risk level prediction model was constructed by using the random forest theory.Based on the interrelationship between decision tree and rules,combined with the independent variable important scoring method,the risk discrimination rules of expressway operating tunnel based on random forest was proposed.The results showed that the discriminant rule set had good prediction accuracy and short running time,and clarified the causes of accidents in different tunnel sections of expressway,which provides a research idea for preventing the occurrence of serious traffic accidents in tunnels.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2022-02-16；网络首发日期： 2022-09-19
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目(51108011)；安全生产重特大事故防治关键技术科技项目(Hebei-0009-2017AQ)
作者简介： 乔建刚，博士，教授，主要研究方向为交通安全。
通信作者： 王傑，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-10-14