|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]丁浩,石昊栋.基于案例推理的我国石油企业海外突发事件应急物资需求预测[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(9):177-182.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.033]
　DING Hao,SHI Hao dong.Demand forecasting of emergency material in China’s abroad emergencies of petroleum enterprise based on case based reasoning[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(9):177-182.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.033]
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基于案例推理的我国石油企业海外突发事件应急物资需求预测
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
9
期数:
2013年9期
页码:
177-182
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2013-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Demand forecasting of emergency material in China’s abroad emergencies of petroleum enterprise based on case based reasoning
作者:
丁浩; 石昊栋
（中国石油大学〈华东〉经济管理学院，山东青岛266580
Author(s):
DING Hao;  SHI Hao dong
(School of Economics & management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China)
关键词:
案例推理; 突发事件; 应急物资; 需求预测
Keywords:
case based reasoning;  emergencies;  emergency materials;  demand forecasting
分类号:
X92
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.033
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
〗随着我国石油企业海外业务不断发展，海外突发事件频发，对我国石油企业应急管理提出了更高的要求，作为应急管理重要组成部分的应急物资需求管理也成为关注的重点。但是海外环境的复杂性、不确定性等使得企业很难预测应急物资需求，为此将案例推理引入到石油企业海外突发事件应急物资需求预测中，通过建立案例库，以在发生新的突发事件时，检索案例库中与目标案例相匹配的案例，并依据匹配案例的结论，进行新案例的物资需求预测。
Abstract:
With the development of overseas business for oil enterprises in China, emergencies occur frequently in this process and it put forward higher request on the ability of emergency management, the material requirements management, which is an important part of emergency management ,has also become a focus. Because the complexity, uncertainty of overseas environment, and lacking of information, it makes that enterprise is hard to predict the demand of emergency materials. The CBR was introduced to forecast the demand of emergency materials. By establishing case base, when the new emergencies happen, the materials demand of new case can be forecasted by conclusions of the match case which is similar to the goal case.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
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更新日期/Last Update: 2013-09-30