|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]邓军,王萌.地铁火灾监控技术发展的德尔菲预见性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(5):77-80.
　Deng Jun,?Wang Meng.Delphi technology foresight analysis on development of the metro fire monitoring system[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(5):77-80.
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地铁火灾监控技术发展的德尔菲预见性分析()
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
7
期数:
2011年5期
页码:
77-80
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2011-05-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Delphi technology foresight analysis on development of the metro fire monitoring system
文章编号:
1673-193X(2011)-05-0077-04
作者:
邓军1; 2; 王萌1; 2; 3
1.西安科技大学能源学院，西安? 710054
2.西部矿井开采及灾害防治教育部重点实验室，西安? 710054
3.咸阳市公安消防支队，咸阳? 712000
Author(s):
Deng Jun1; 2;  ?Wang Meng1; 2; 3
1. Xi’an university of science and technology School of Energy Engineering, Xi An? 710054, China
2. Key Laboratory of Western Mine Exploitation and Hazard Prevention of Education Ministry, Xi An? 710054, China
3. Xian yang fire bridge of public security, Xian yang? 712000, China
关键词:
地铁; 火灾监控系统; 德尔菲调查; 技术预见
Keywords:
The Tube Fire Monitoring System Delphi Survey Technology Foresight
分类号:
X951
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
通过分析地铁火灾监控系统的结构组成和技术组成的发展情况,总结当前地铁火灾监控系统应用领域的各项技术,并以这些技术作为德尔菲调查问卷的内容,按照德尔菲调查的要求设计调查问卷,联络本领域资深专家进行德尔菲调查,统计专家的反馈信息,将反馈信息定量转化为计算值,计算各技术课题指标评价值,定量分析每个技术领域内技术课题影响地铁火灾监控系统发展的重要程度、各技术领域的专家认同重要程度以及技术课题预计实现时间;最终通过重要程度与专家认同重要程度计算出的综合认同重要程度,总结分析出信息处理领域、探测领域、报警和网络通信领域是制约地铁火灾监控系统发展最主要的因素,提出各技术领域的技术大部分都预计在2010-2020年之间实现,其中实现最快的是探测领域内的技术课题。
Abstract:
This task has analysed the Development Of the structures and technologies of tube fire monitoring system and collected variously fields of technology which are using in the tube fire monitoning system at this present stage, and draw up Delphi questionnaire depand on these technologies according to the requst of Delphi and then , get in touch with relevance experts who are professional and elder in the field of the tube fire monitoring system to process Delphi Survey. After that, change the information into calculated value, statistik and figure out each index evaluation of estimate of all the technology, then quantitative analysis the materialitylevel of technologies which influence on The Tube Fire Monitoring System in each field of technology , the materialitylevel of self-identity of experts in each fields of technology, the target date for reaching the goals of each fields of technology. Finaly, the task works out the fields of information processing, detecting, alarming and networking are the most immpotant factors by using the materialitylevel of synthetical self-identity in the development of The Tube Fire Monitoring System which is calculated by the materialitylevel and the materialitylevel of self-identity of experts. Most of the technologies in each fields will come ture between 2010 to 2020, and the technologies in the field of detecting will come ture soon .

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2011-01-28
作者简介：邓军，教授、博导。
基金项目：教育部创新团队项目（编号：IRT0856）；陕西省“三秦学者”特聘教授岗位资助
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