|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]凤四海,蓝航宇,熊永怡,等.基于三方演化博弈论的相向流人群疏散行为研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(3):149-156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.03.021]
　FENG Sihai,LAN Hangyu,XIONG Yongyi,et al.Study on evacuation behavior of bi-directional flow crowd based on tripartite evolutionary game theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(3):149-156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.03.021]
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基于三方演化博弈论的相向流人群疏散行为研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
20
期数:
2024年3期
页码:
149-156
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2024-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on evacuation behavior of bi-directional flow crowd based on tripartite evolutionary game theory
文章编号:
1673-193X(2024)-03-0149-08
作者:
凤四海; 蓝航宇; 熊永怡; 熊升华
（1.中国民用航空飞行学院 民航安全工程学院，四川 广汉 618307；
2.中国民用航空飞行学院 飞行技术学院，四川 广汉 618307)
Author(s):
FENG Sihai;  LAN Hangyu;  XIONG Yongyi;  XIONG Shenghua
(1.College of Civil Aviation Safety Engineering,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan Sichuan 618307,China;
2.Flight Technology College,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan Sichuan 618307,China)
关键词:
应急疏散; 相向流人群; 疏散指挥者; 演化博弈论
Keywords:
emergency evacuation;  bi-directional flow crowd;  evacuation commander;  evolutionary game theory
分类号:
X951X913.4
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.03.021
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为探究相向流人群疏散行为，基于考虑疏散指挥者对疏散过程的引导作用，构建包含正向流人群、逆向流人群和疏散指挥者的三方演化博弈模型，分析三方在参与博弈后策略选择的稳定性，并通过数值仿真探究场地宽度、人员密度、合作收益、逆流任务收益、场地熟悉程度、管理强度、事故惩罚等因素对应急疏散系统演化稳定性的影响。研究结果表明：三方博弈主体策略转换联动性较强；相向流人群的竞争或合作策略主要受到合作收益、逆流任务收益和场地熟悉程度影响；盲目提高指挥者的管理强度可能会迫使指挥者放弃管理。研究结果可为减少疏散人员逆向流行为和提高疏散指挥者管理能力提供一定参考。
Abstract:
In order to explore the evacuation behavior of bi-directional flow crowd,considering the evacuation commander’s management of evacuation process,a tripartite evolutionary game model including the forward flow crowd,the counter flow crowd and the evacuation commander was constructed.The stability of the three parties’ strategy selection after participating in the game was analyzed,and the influence of site width,personnel density,cooperation income,counter flow task income,site familiarity,management intensity,accident punishment and other factors on the evolutionary stability of emergency evacuation system was explored by numerical simulation,.The results show that the main strategy conversion of the tripartite game has strong linkage.The competition or cooperation strategy of bi-directional flow crowd is mainly influenced by cooperation income,counter flow task income and site familiarity.Blindly improving the management intensity of commander may force the commander to give up management.The research results can provide some theoretical support for reducing the counter flow behavior of evacuation personnel and improving the management ability of evacuation commanders.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2023-10-27
* 基金项目： 四川省科技计划项目（2022YFG0213）；民机火灾科学与安全工程四川省重点实验室自主项目( MZ2022JB03)
作者简介： 凤四海，博士，教授，主要研究方向为民航安全管理、应急管理、航空人因等。
通信作者： 熊升华，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为决策理论与方法、民航安全管理等。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-04-07