[1]卢丹,许长清,张琳娟,等.基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(9):170-175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.09.028]
LU Dan,XU Changqing,ZHANG Linjuan,et al.Comprehensive risk assessment method of power grid based on game weighting and grey relational projection[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(9):170-175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.09.028]
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基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法
LU Dan,XU Changqing,ZHANG Linjuan,et al.Comprehensive risk assessment method of power grid based on game weighting and grey relational projection[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(9):170-175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.09.028]
《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]
- 卷:
- 15
- 期数:
- 2019年9期
- 页码:
- 170-175
- 栏目:
- 职业安全卫生管理与技术
- 出版日期:
- 2019-09-30
文章信息/Info
- Title:
- Comprehensive risk assessment method of power grid based on game weighting and grey relational projection
- 文章编号:
- 1673-193X(2019)-09-0170-06
- Keywords:
- comprehensive risk assessment of power grid; risk assessment index; game weighting; grey relational projection
- 分类号:
- X934；TM71
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为了对风险形式多样化的电网进行全面客观的评估，提出了一种基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法。首先，通过分析现代电网面临的风险因素，从网架结构、运行状态、能源供给3个方面重新构建了风险评估指标体系；其次，基于博弈赋权模型融合指标主观权值与客观权值，最大化消除了单一赋权法造成的权值偏差；然后，通过灰色关联投影模型计算风险指标样本在理想解上的投影，并以风险指标样本对负理想解的优属度来表征电网综合风险大小；最后，通过案例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。研究所得电网综合风险评估结果具有合理性和可靠性，对电网调度规划决策的形成具有一定的指导作用。
- Abstract:
- In order to assess the risk of power grid with diversified risk forms comprehensively and objectively,a comprehensive risk assessment method of power grid based on the game weighting and grey relational projection was proposed.Firstly,by analyzing the risk factors faced by the modern power grid,an index system of risk assessment was reconstructed from three aspects of grid structure,operational status and energy supply.Secondly,the subjective and objective weight values of the indexes were integrated based on the game weighting model,so as to furthest eliminate the weight deviation caused by the single weighting method.Thirdly,the projection values of risk index samples on the ideal solution were calculated by using the grey relation projection model,and the comprehensive risk of power grid was represented with the optimal membership degree of risk index samples to the negative ideal solution.Finally,the effectiveness and correctness of this method were verified through the case analysis.The results of comprehensive risk assessment on power grid were reasonable and reliable,which can provide a certain guidance for the power grid to form the dispatching and planning decision.
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备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
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收稿日期： 2019-07-25
* 基金项目： 国网河南省电力公司科技项目（5217L017000D）
作者简介： 卢丹，博士，高级工程师，主要研究方向为电网运行风险管控、主动配电网技术等。
