|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李明洋,姜福川,陈思帆.改进欧拉法的GM(1,1)模型及其在非煤矿山事故预测中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(8):188-192.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.08.035]
　LI Ming yang,JIANG Fu chuan,CHEN Si fan.The improved euler method GM(1,1) model and its application in the accident prediction of noncoal mine[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(8):188-192.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.08.035]
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改进欧拉法的GM(1,1)模型及其在非煤矿山事故预测中的应用
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
9
期数:
2013年8期
页码:
188-192
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2013-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
The improved euler method GM(1,1) model and its application in the accident prediction of noncoal mine
文章编号:
20130835
作者:
李明洋; 姜福川; 陈思帆
（昆明理工大学 国土资源工程学院，云南昆明650093）
Author(s):
LI Mingyang;  JIANG Fuchuan;  CHEN Sifan
(School of Land and Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650093, China)
关键词:
改进欧拉法; GM(1; 1)模型; 改进模型; 事故预测
Keywords:
improved euler method;  GM(1; 1) model;  improved model;  prediction of accidents
分类号:
X928.03
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.08.035
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
通过对GM(1,1)模型中的微分方程使用数值算法求解，提出一种改进欧拉算法GM(1,1)模型。将此模型应用于我国非煤矿山事故预测中，并且对改进模型的预测数据及结果与原始模型进行了比较，表明该预测模型提高了预测精度，验证了模型的可行性，并对我国非煤矿山事故发生趋势做出统计学的判断。该模型可以精确的预测近期的一些数据，而长远的预测则为一种趋势的反映。
Abstract:
Based on the numerical algorithm to solve the differential equations of the GM(1,1) model, a GM(1,1) model of improved Euler method was presented. The improved GM(1,1) model was into the prediction of accidents in the noncoal mine of China, and the prediction data with the actual data of the original model. It showed that the prediction model improves the prediction accuracy, which verifies the feasibility of the model, and it can make the statistical judgement to the trend of noncoal mine accidents, and accurately predict some recent data,while longterm prediction is a reflection of trend.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
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更新日期/Last Update: 2013-09-11