|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李明洋,姜福川.基于最小二乘法的灰色GM(1,1)改进模型在非煤矿山事故预测中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(11):83-90.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.11.014]
　LI Ming yang,JIANG Fu chuan.Inproved gray GM(1,1) model in the noncoal mine accident prediction based on the methed of least square[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(11):83-90.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.11.014]
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基于最小二乘法的灰色GM(1,1)改进模型在非煤矿山事故预测中的应用
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
9
期数:
2013年11期
页码:
83-90
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2013-11-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Inproved gray GM(1,1) model in the noncoal mine accident prediction based on the methed of least square
作者:
李明洋; 姜福川
（昆明理工大学 国土资源工程学院，云南昆明650093）
Author(s):
LI Mingyang;  JIANG Fuchuan
(School of Land and Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650093, China)
关键词:
最小二乘法; GM(1; 1)模型; 改进模型; 事故预测
Keywords:
least square method;  GM(1; 1) model;  improved model;  prediction of accidents
分类号:
X936; TD5
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.11.014
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
根据灰色理论及其相关理论，通过对GM(1,1)模型中微分方程使用最小二乘法多项式拟合来求解，提出一种改进GM(1,1)模型。将改进模型的预测精度与原始模型进行了比较得出采用二次多项式拟合的改进模型预测精度高于原始模型，因此采用二次多项式拟合GM(1,1)改进模型。并将该改进模型用于我国非煤矿山事故预测中，对2008-2010年我国非煤矿山伤亡事故死亡率进行预测性计算并且与真实数据进行了比对，进一步验证了模型的可行性
Abstract:
Based on the Grey theory and Related theory, An improved GM(1,1) model is constructed to solve Differential eqationals by the methed of Least square Polynomial fitting. Will improve the precision of the model were compared with the original model obtained using quadratic polynomial fitting improved model prediction precision higher than the original model, so quadratic polynomial fitting GM (1,1) improved model is adopted. And use this improved model into the prediction of noncoal mines’ accidents. Make the predictive calculation of the 0810 casualty accidents’ mortality rate of China’s noncoal mines and compared with the real data further validates the feasibility of the model.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
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更新日期/Last Update: 2013-11-30