|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]胡甚平,鲁金虎,邹春,等.基于级联效应的LNG动力船通航风险传导动力学模型*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2025,21(8):204-213.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.08.026]
　HU Shenping,LU Jinhu,ZOU Chun,et al.Cascade effect-based dynamics model for LNG-powered vessel navigation risk transmission[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2025,21(8):204-213.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.08.026]
点击复制

基于级联效应的LNG动力船通航风险传导动力学模型*

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
21
期数:
2025年8期
页码:
204-213
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2025-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Cascade effect-based dynamics model for LNG-powered vessel navigation risk transmission
文章编号:
1673-193X(2025)-08-0204-10
作者:
胡甚平; 鲁金虎; 邹春; 朱清华
(上海海事大学 商船学院，上海 201306)
Author(s):
HU Shenping;  LU Jinhu;  ZOU Chun;  ZHU Qinghua
（Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)
关键词:
风险传递; 熵权法; 系统动力学; 风险仿真; 风险级联; 系统理论事故模型与过程（STAMP）
Keywords:
risk transmission;  entropy weight method;  system dynamics;  risk simulation;  risk cascade;  system-theoretic accident model and process (STAMP)
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.08.026
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为推进绿色能源船舶动力安全应用，探讨新型能源对船舶通航影响效应下的风险级联问题，以复杂系统过程安全为视角，提出LNG动力船在复杂港口水域通航的风险级联动力学仿真模型。首先，引入系统理论事故模型与过程（STAMP）方法，辨识LNG动力船通航事故及后续的LNG泄漏和火灾爆炸的事故链；其次，采用风险传导理论建立LNG动力船通航的风险级联模型，通过改进层次分析（AHP）-熵权法，获得各个指标因子的权重集，解析风险传导概率；最后，结合复杂港口LNG动力船通航的场景数据，将各个风险因子进行量化，对LNG动力船在港口水域船舶航行风险进行复杂网络动力学仿真。研究结果表明：LNG动力船在港口航行中，碰撞、搁浅、触碰事故和后续的泄漏、火灾爆炸事故存在高度的关联性，且事故的发生是由多因素耦合级联所致；仿真结果与真实场景的实践结果具有一致性，建立的风险级联动力学模型有效。研究结果对事故链和关键节点进行控制具有指导意义。
Abstract:
In order to promote the safe application of green energy in ship propulsion and investigate risk cascade effects induced by new energy sources on vessel navigation,this study proposed a risk cascade dynamics simulation model for LNG-powered vessels navigating in complex port waters from a complex system process safety perspective.First,the system-theoretic accident model and process (STAMP) method is employed to identify accident chains involving LNG-powered vessel navigation incidents and subsequent LNG leakage,fire,and explosion events.Second,a risk cascade model for LNG-powered vessel navigation is established using risk transmission theory.Through an improved analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight method (AHP-EWM),the weight sets of various indicator factors are determined to analyze risk transmission probabilities.Finally,by quantifying risk factors with scenario data from complex port operations of LNG-powered vessels,a complex network dynamics simulation is conducted to assess navigation risks in port waters.Results demonstrate strong correlations among collisions,groundings,impacts with fixed objects,and subsequent leakage/fire/explosion accidents during LNG-powered vessel operations in ports.These accidents result from multi-factor coupling and cascading effects.Simulation outcomes align with real-world scenarios,validating the effectiveness of the proposed risk cascade dynamics model.These findings provide practical guidance for controlling accident chains and critical risk nodes.

参考文献/References:

［1］TOMSON H,CORBETT J J,WINBRAKE J J.Natural gas as a marine fuel［J］.Energy Policy,2015,87:153-167.
［2］XIE C,HUANG L,WANG R,et al.Research on quantitative risk assessment of fuel leak of LNG-fuelled ship during lock transition process［J］.Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2022,221:108368.
［3］XUAN S,HU S,LI Z,et al.Dynamics simulation for process risk evolution on the bunker operation of an LNG-fueled vessel with catastrophe mathematical models［J］.Journal of Marine Science and Engineering,2019,7(9):299.
［4］YEO C,BHANDARI J,ABBASSI R,et al.Dynamic risk analysis of offloading process in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform using Bayesian Network［J］.Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2016,41:259-269.
［5］KWAK D H,HEO J H,PARK S H,et al.Energy-efficient design and optimization of boil-off gas (BOG) re-liquefaction process for liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fuelled ship［J］.Energy,2018,148:915-929.
［6］DAVIES P A,FORT E.LNG as a marine fuel:Likelihood of LNG releases［J］.Journal of Marine Engineering and Technology,2013,12(3):3-10.
［7］LI J,HUANG Z.Fire and explosion risk analysis and evaluation for LNG ships［J］.Procedia Engineering,2012,45:70-76.
［8］朱清华,胡甚平,田力,等.基于二维灰云模型的LNG动力船航行过程风险推理［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(6):180-186. ZHU Qinghua,HU Shenping,TIAN Li,et al.Risk reasoning on navigation process of LNG-fueled ship based on two-dimensional gray cloud model［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2021,17(6):180-186.
［9］李伟,胡甚平,陈伟炯,等.液化天然气动力船航行过程风险动态仿真［J］.哈尔滨工程大学学报,2020,41(12):1757-1764. LI Wei,HU Shenping,CHEN Weijiong,et al.Dynamic simulation of process risk for the navigation of liquefied-natural-gas-fueled vessels［J］.Journal of Harbin Engineering University,2020,41(12):1757-1764.
［10］胡甚平,李圣媛,赵睿,等.LNG动力船应急响应系统流程GSPN-MC仿真模型［J］.中国安全科学学报,2021,31(10):174-181. HU Shenping,LI Shengyuan,ZHAO Rui,et al.Simulation modeling on emergency response process for LNG-fueled vessel via GSPN-MC method［J］.China Safety Science Journal,2021,31(10):174-181.
［11］LIU A,CHEN K,HUANG X,et al.Dynamic risk assessment model of buried gas pipelines based on system dynamics［J］.Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2021,208:107326.
［12］CHEN L Q,FENG Y X,ZHEN H L,et al.Risk assessment of large crude oil depot based on interpretative structural model and system dynamics［J］.International Journal of Oil Gas and Coal Technology,2020,25(2):161-183.
［13］WU J,ZHANG L,BAI Y,et al.A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on system dynamics and Bayesian network theory［J］.Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2022,221:108331.
［14］席永涛,张靓,付姗姗,等.基于SFN-SD的北极冰区船舶航行风险传递路径研究［J］.中国安全科学学报,2023,33(4):52-60. XI Yongtao,ZHANG Liang,FU Shanshan,et al.Research on risk transfer path of ship navigation in Arctic waters based on SFN and SD［J］.China Safety Science Journal,2023,33(4):52-60.
［15］曹久华,席永涛,胡甚平,等.基于系统动力学的港口船舶通航风险成因耦合模型［J］.安全与环境学报,2015,15(3):65-71. CAO Jiuhua,XI Yongtao,HU Shenping,et al.Coupling model for risk formation on ship navigation at port water areas using system dynamics［J］.Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(3):65-71.
［16］曾明荣,秦永莹,刘小航,等.采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析［J］.安全与环境学报,2024,24(7):2741-2750. ZENG Mingrong,QIN Yongying,LIU Xiaohang,et al.Analysis of multi-organization accident based on STAMP-24Model［J］.Journal of Safety and Environment,2024,24(7):2741-2750.
［17］狄鹏,陈鹏宇,刘昊邦,等.基于TFN-AHP和云模型的母舰对气垫船保障能力评价［J］.海军工程大学学报,2024,36(2):55-60. DI Peng,CHEN Pengyu,LIU Haobang,et al.Evaluation of support ability of mother ship to hovercraft based on TFN-AHP and cloud model［J］.Journal of Naval University of Engineering,2024,36(2):55-60.
［18］吴波,杜君,温小栋,等.基于改进熵权-DEMATEL-ISM的富水软土层深基坑施工安全风险评估［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(10):106-114. WU Bo,DU Jun,WEN Xiaodong,et al.Safety risk assessment of deep foundation pit construction in water-rich soft soil layer based on entropy weight-DEMATEL-ISM［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2023,19(10):106-114.

相似文献/References:

[1]申玉琪,赵东风,刘义,等.精神熵分析法的提出及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):166.
　SHENG Yu-qi,ZHAO Dong-feng,LIU Yi,et al.Proposition of psyche entropy analysis and its application[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2011,7(8):166.
[2]单仁亮,赵鑫,徐加夫,等.基于加权灰靶模型的区域铁矿安全生产能力评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(10):27.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.10.005]
　SHAN Ren liang,ZHAO Xin,XU Jia fu,et al.Safe production capacity evaluation of regional Iron mines based on weighted grey target model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2013,9(8):27.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.10.005]
[3]撒占友,刘凯利,马池香,等.民营企业安全文化模型及其实证分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):178.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.030]
　SA Zhanyou,LIU Kaili,MA Chixiang,et al.Safety culture model of private enterprises and its empirical analysis[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(8):178.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.030]
[4]黄建文,王东,廖再毅,等.基于组合赋权法和云理论的震后重建住宅工程质量评价研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(3):127.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.023]
　HUANG Jianwen,WANG Dong,LIAO Zaiyi,et al.Evaluation on engineering quality of post-earthquake reconstruction residential buildings based on combined weight method and cloud theory[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(8):127.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.023]
[5]辛督强.基于熵权-TOPSIS的陕西省各市区道路交通安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(10):116.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.10.020]
　XIN Du-qiang.Evaluation on road traffic safety of the cities in Shaanxi province based on entropy-TOPSIS method[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2015,11(8):116.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.10.020]
[6]章国宝,万林,黄永明.基于云模型的电梯运行可靠性模糊综合评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(4):175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.04.032]
　ZHANG Guobao,WAN Lin,HUANG Yongming.Fuzzy comprehensive assessment of elevator operation reliability based on cloud model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(8):175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.04.032]
[7]何亚伯,汪洋,李祎琛,等.基于改进DEA交叉效率模型的洪水灾害区域脆弱性评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(5):86.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.05.015]
　HE Yabo,WANG Yang,LI Yichen,et al.Evaluation on regional vulnerability of flood disaster based on improved DEA overlapping efficiency model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(8):86.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.05.015]
[8]周勇勇,李夕兵,刘志祥,等.高精度三维地下微震台网模糊优选方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(7):82.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.07.015]
　ZHOU Yongyong,LI Xibing,LIU Zhixiang,et al.Fuzzy optimum approach for three-dimensional underground micro-seismic network with high precision[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(8):82.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.07.015]
[9]赵挺生,任玲玲,周炜,等.基于熵权法-CIM模型的高速公路施工临近房屋安全风险评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(3):174.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.028]
　ZHAO Tingsheng,REN Lingling,ZHOU Wei,et al.Safety risk assessment on buildings adjacent to construction site of expressway based on entropy-weight method and CIM model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(8):174.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.028]
[10]刘兵,李晓璐,张彭,等.基于熵权可拓物元模型的城市轨道交通线路运营风险评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(12):175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.12.028]
　LIU Bing,LI Xiaolu,ZHANG Peng,et al.Evaluationon operational risk of urban rail transit line based on entropy weight extension matterelement model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(8):175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.12.028]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2025-03-31
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目(52272353)
作者简介： 胡甚平，博士，教授，主要研究方向为载运工具运用工程，风险管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-09-01