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[1]王晶晶,朱伟,高凯悦,等.化工园区危化品事故风险耦合与预测研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2025,21(1):31-37.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.01.004]
　WANG Jingjing,ZHU Wei,GAO Kaiyue,et al.Research on risk coupling and prediction of hazardous chemical accidents in chemical industrial parks[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2025,21(1):31-37.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.01.004]
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化工园区危化品事故风险耦合与预测研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
21
期数:
2025年1期
页码:
31-37
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2025-01-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on risk coupling and prediction of hazardous chemical accidents in chemical industrial parks
文章编号:
1673-193X(2025)-01-0031-07
作者:
王晶晶; 朱伟; 高凯悦; 罗兰君; 尹心萍; 翟羽佳
（1.北京市科学技术研究院，北京 100035；
2.天津师范大学 管理学院，天津 300387；
3.武汉大学 信息管理学院，湖北 武汉 430072）
Author(s):
WANG Jingjing;  ZHU Wei;  GAO Kaiyue;  LUO Lanjun;  YIN Xinping;  ZHAI Yujia
(1.Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100035,China;
2.School of Management,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China;
3.School of Information Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072,China)
关键词:
化工园区; 危化品事故; 风险耦合; 预测模型
Keywords:
chemical industrial park;  hazardous chemical accident;  risk coupling;  prediction model
分类号:
X928
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.01.004
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为深入理解化工园区危化品事故的风险因素及规律，预测事故发展趋势，收集并分析2013—2023年内发生的319起化工园区危化品事故案例数据。首先，基于N-K模型构建事故耦合度的风险评价模型，揭示不同因素耦合下的风险变动规律；接着，采用灰色预测模型与加权马尔科夫链方法相结合的组合预测模型，以提升事故发生数量的预测准确度；最后，根据数据分析结果构建综合性的化工园区危化品防控体系，并提出针对性的预防对策。研究结果表明：事故风险因素越多，风险耦合值越高。研究结果可为化工园区危化品安全风险评估和预测提供有力参考。
Abstract:
To gain a deep understanding on the risk factors and laws of hazardous chemical accidents in the chemical industrial parks,and predict the accident development trends,the data of 319 hazardous chemical accident cases that occurred in the chemical industrial parks from 2013 to 2023 were collected and analyzed.Firstly,a risk evaluation model of accident coupling degree was constructed based on the N-K model,and the risk variation laws under different factor coupling were revealed.Secondly,a combined prediction model integrating the grey prediction model and the weighted Markov chain method was proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of accident number.Finally,a comprehensive chemical accident prevention and control system for the chemical industrial parks was established,and the targeted preventive measures were put forward.The results show that the more accident risk factors there are,the higher the risk coupling value will be.The research results can provide a reference for the risk assessment and prediction of hazardous chemical safety in the chemical industrial parks.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2024-08-04
* 基金项目： 北京市科技新星计划项目(Z211100002121162)；教育部春晖计划合作科研项目（202200225）；国家社科基金一般项目(24BTQ045)
作者简介： 王晶晶，博士，副研究员，主要研究方向为城市应急管理。
通信作者： 翟羽佳，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为应急信息学等。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-01-26