[1]董凯凯,米根锁.基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的无线闭塞中心风险评估*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(10):179-185.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.10.027]
DONG Kaikai,MI Gensuo.Risk assessment of radio block center based on game weighting matter-element and evidence theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(10):179-185.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.10.027]
点击复制
基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的无线闭塞中心风险评估*
DONG Kaikai,MI Gensuo.Risk assessment of radio block center based on game weighting matter-element and evidence theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(10):179-185.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.10.027]
《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]
- 卷:
- 17
- 期数:
- 2021年10期
- 页码:
- 179-185
- 栏目:
- 职业安全卫生管理与技术
- 出版日期:
- 2021-10-31
文章信息/Info
- Title:
- Risk assessment of radio block center based on game weighting matter-element and evidence theory
- 文章编号:
- 1673-193X(2021)-10-0179-07
- Keywords:
- radio block center; risk assessment; game theory; intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; matter-element theory; evidence theory
- 分类号:
- X951
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为客观地对无线闭塞中心进行风险评估，建立基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的评估模型，根据故障树分析法识别的风险因子构建评估指标体系，采用博弈论思想对直觉模糊层次分析法计算的主观权重和熵权法计算的客观权重进行最优组合，进而确定综合权重。运用物元理论和证据理论确定各指标的风险等级和系统整体风险等级，并通过实例分析对评估模型进行对比验证。结果表明：无线闭塞中心整体风险等级为“可容许的”，与实际情况相符。其中，系统外部通信故障的风险等级为“不期望的”，需要对其相关设备加强风险控制。
- Abstract:
- In order to assess the risk of radio block center scientifically and objectively,a risk assessment model based on the game weighting matter-element and evidence theory was established.Firstly,according to the risk factors identified by the fault tree analysis,an evaluation index system was constructed.Secondly,the thought of game theory was used to optimally combine the subjective weights determined by the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method and the objective weights calculated by the entropy weight method,thus the comprehensive weight was determined.Finally,the matter-element theory and evidence theory were used to determine the risk level of each index and the overall risk level of the system,and the assessment model was compared and verified by the example analysis.The results showed that the overall risk level of radio block center was “admissible”,which was consistent with the actual situation.Among them,the risk level of external communication failure of the system was “unexpected”,so it was necessary to strengthen the risk control of its related equipments.
参考文献/References:
［1］MEDIKONDA B S,RAMAIAH P S,GOKHALE A A.Fmea and fault tree based software safety analysis of a railroad crossing critical system［J］.Global Journal of Computer Science and Technology.2011,11(8):56-62.
［2］JONG-G H,HYUNG-JEONG J.Hazard analysis of train control system using hazop-kr methods ［J］.Electrical Machines and Systems,2010:1971.
［3］徐征捷,张友鹏,苏宏升.基于云模型的模糊综合评判法在风险评估中的应用［J］.安全与环境学报,2014,14(2):69-72.
XU Zhengjie,ZHANG Youpeng,SU Hongsheng.Application of risk assessment on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the cloud model ［J］.Journal of Safety and Environment,2014,14(2):69-72.
［4］AN M,CHEN Y,BAKER C J.A fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process based approach to the process of railway risk information:a railway risk management system ［J］.Information Sciences,2011,181(18):3946-3966.
［5］戴胜华,谢旭旭.基于改进型AHP与证据理论的应答器系统风险评估［J］.安全与环境学报,2019,19(1):49-55.
DAI Shenghua,XIE Xuxu.Risk assessment of balise system based on the improved ahp and evidence theory ［J］.Journal of Safety and Environment,2019,19(1):49-55.
［6］张亚东,郭进,戴贤春,等.基于多级可拓评价法的列车运行控制系统运营安全风险评价［J］.中国铁道科学,2013,34(5):114-119.
ZHANG Yadong,GUO Jin,DAI Xianchun,et al.Operation safety risk evaluation of train control system based on multilevel extensible evaluation method ［J］.China Railway Science,2013,34(5):114-119.
［7］张友鹏,李远远.基于云模型和证据理论的铁路信号系统风险评估［J］.铁道学报,2016,38(1):75-80.
ZHANG Youpeng,LI Yuanyuan.Risk assessment of railway signal system based on cloud model and evidence theory ［J］.Journal of the China Railway Society,2016,38(1):75-80.
［8］陶秋香,涂继亮.基于未确知集和模糊TOPSIS决策的故障模式风险评估［J］.计算机应用研究,2018,35(9):2676-2679.
TAO Qiuxiang,TU Jiliang.Risk assessment of failure mode based on unascertained set and fuzzy TOPSIS decision ［J］.Application Research of Computers,2018,35(9):2676-2679.
［9］张尚,王涛,顾雪平.基于直觉模糊层次分析法的电网运行状态综合评估［J］.电力系统自动化,2016,40(4):41-49.
ZHANG Shang,WANG Tao,GU Xueping.Synthetic evaluation of power grid operating states based on intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process ［J］.Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(4):41-49.
［10］梁玉霞,李全明.基于熵权-TOPSIS模型的企业安全文化评估系统设计［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(7):163-168.
LIANG Yuxia,LI Quanming.Design of assessment system for enterprise safety culture based on entropy-TOPSIS model ［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2020,16(7):163-168.
［11］卢丹,许长清.基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(9):170-175.
LU Dan,XU Changqing.Comprehensive risk assessment method of power grid based on game weighting and grey relational projection,［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(9):170-175.
［12］李玲玲,刘敬杰.物元理论和证据理论相结合的电能质量综合评估［J］.电工技术学报,2015,30(12):383-391.
LI Lingling,LIU Jingjie.Power quality comprehensive evaluation based on matter-element theory and evidence theory［J］.Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2015,30(12):383-391.
［13］张苑,刘朝英.无线闭塞中心系统安全风险分析及对策［J］.中国铁道科学,2010,31(4):112-117.
ZHANG Yuan,LIU Chaoying.Analysis of the safety related risks of radio block center and countermeasures［J］.China Railway Science,2010,31(4):112-117.
［14］WANG Y Y,XU Z S.Evaluation of the human settlement in Lhasa with intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process ［J］.International Journal of Fuzzy Systems,2018,20(1):29-44.
［15］XU Z S,LIAO H C.Intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process ［J］.IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2014,22(4):749-761.
［16］程志友,刘荡荡.基于集对分析与可变模糊集的电能质量综合评估［J］.电网技术,2020,44(5):1950-1956.
CHENG Zhiyou,LIU Dangdang.Comprehensive evaluation of power quality based on set pair analysis and variable fuzzy sets［J］.Power System Technology,2020,44(5):1950-1956.
相似文献/References:
[1]林志忠.航运企业风险评估的实施[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(3):156.
LIN Zhi-zhong.The risk assessment of shipping company[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(10):156.
[2]张玉龙.施工现场的风险管理应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):145.
ZHANG Yu-long.Research on risk management application of construction site[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(10):145.
[3]牛康.地铁盾构施工风险评估与风险规避研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(5):42.
NIU Kang.Study on risk assessment and avoiding of metro shielding construction[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(10):42.
[4]王磊,陈东琼,李绪丰,等.基于RBI的碳五石油树脂装置风险评估分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(6):112.
WANG Lei,CHEN Dong-qiong,LI Xu-feng,et al.Risk Assessment on C_5 Petroleum Resin Plant Based on RBI Technology[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(10):112.
[5]贾筱莹.基于模糊综合评价法的继电保护人员安全状态评估及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):170.
JIA Xiao-ying.Safety Assessment of Relay Protection Staff Based on Fuzzy Synthesis Evaluation and Its Application[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(10):170.
[6]尤秋菊,樊建春,朱伟,等.北京市燃气事故风险评估与控制对策[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):93.
YOU Qiu-ju,FAN Jian-chun,ZHU Wei,et al.Risk assessment and control measures of gas accident?in Beijing[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(10):93.
[7]刘文军,李靖,鞠红霞.化工厂雷击灾害风险评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(5):146.
LIU Wen jun,LI Jing,JU Hong xia.Risk assessment of lightning struck meteorological disaster for a chemical factory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(10):146.
[8]王孔森.基于层次分析方法的核电火灾风险评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(6):110.
WANG Kong sen.Fire risk evaluation on nuclear power plant based onthe method of analytic hierarchy process[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(10):110.
[9]刘小勇,沈〓立,孙明义.桥梁工程规划设计阶段施工安全风险评估的研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(8):79.
LIU Xiao yong,SHEN Li,SUN Ming yi.Research on the construction safety risk assessment in the planning
and design stages of bridge engineering[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(10):79.
[10]张洪梅,李俊荣,尹立华,等.石油天然气钻井工程风险量化技术[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(8):127.
ZHANG Hong mei,LI Jun rong,YIN Li hua,et al.Risk quantitative technology of oil and gas drilling engineering[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(10):127.
备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
-
收稿日期： 2021-03-12
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（61763025）
作者简介： 董凯凯，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为铁路信号风险评估。
