|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]吴军,林睿婷,江田汉,等.我国生产安全事故系统性风险研究——基于ARDL模型*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(12):50-55.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.008]
　WU Jun,LIN Ruiting,JIANG Tianhan,et al.Study on systematic risk of work safety accidents in China：based on ARDL model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(12):50-55.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.008]
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我国生产安全事故系统性风险研究——基于ARDL模型*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
16
期数:
2020年12期
页码:
50-55
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2020-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on systematic risk of work safety accidents in China：based on ARDL model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2020)-12-0050-06
作者:
吴军; 林睿婷; 江田汉; 李健
（1.北京化工大学 经济管理学院，北京 100029；
2.中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012；
3.北京工业大学 经济与管理学院，北京 100124）
Author(s):
WU Jun;  LIN Ruiting;  JIANG Tianhan;  LI Jian
（1.School of Economics and Management，Beijing University of Chemical Technology，Beijing 100029，China；
2.China Academy of Safety Science and Technology，Beijing 100012，China；
3.College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China）
关键词:
生产安全事故; 系统性风险; 安全发展; ARDL模型
Keywords:
work safety accident;  systematic risk;  safe development;  ARDL model
分类号:
X928
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.008
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为探讨我国生产安全事故的宏观影响因素，采用自回归分布滞后（Autoregressive Distributed Lag，ARDL）模型，考察1953—2019年间我国经济增长、产业结构、就业结构以及城镇人口占比等宏观因素对我国生产安全事故的影响。结果表明：生产安全事故与上述宏观因素之间存在长期均衡关系和短期反向调整机制。在长期关系中，第二产业增加值对我国生产安全事故具有正向影响作用，而经济增长、非农业就业人口比重及城镇人口占比的影响显著为负；在短期关系中，经济增长、第三产业增加值、城镇人口占比的上升增加了生产安全事故风险。上述因素具有不同的分布滞后效应，其相互作用叠加形成生产安全事故系统性风险。研究结果可为推进我国安全发展提供理论思路和参考。
Abstract:
In order to explore the macro influencing factors of work safety accidents in China,the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the influence of macro factors such as economic growth,industrial structure,employment structure and urbanization rate on the work safety accidents in China from 1953 to 2019.The results showed that there existed a longterm equilibrium relationship and shortterm reverse adjustment mechanism between the work safety accidents and the above macro factors.In the longterm relationship,the added value of the secondary industry had the positive influence,while the influence of economic growth,proportion of nonagricultural employment population and urbanization rate was significantly negative.In the shortterm relationship,the economic growth,the added value of the tertiary industry and the increasing proportion of urban population made the risk of work safety accidents increase.The above factors had different distributed lag effect,and their interaction and superposition resulted in the systematic risk of work safety accidents.The results can provide theoretical ideas and reference for promoting the safe development in China.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-08-11；网络首发日期： 2020-12-29
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0801500,2018YFF0214804）；国家自然科学基金项目（71571010）；北京市社会科学基金项目（17GLB014）
作者简介： 吴军，博士，教授，主要研究方向为安全风险与应急管理、大数据与智能算法。
通信作者： 江田汉，博士，教授级高级工程师，主要研究方向为公共安全与应急管理、应急大数据分析与决策技术等。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-01-08