|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]孙延浩,张琦,张芸鹏.基于模糊层次分析法和证据推理的铁路应急预案评价研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(1):123-129.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.01.020]
　SUN Yanhao,ZHANG Qi,ZHANG Yunpeng.Research on evaluation of railway emergency plan based on FuzzyAHP and evidence reasoning[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(1):123-129.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.01.020]
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基于模糊层次分析法和证据推理的铁路应急预案评价研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
16
期数:
2020年1期
页码:
123-129
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2020-01-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on evaluation of railway emergency plan based on FuzzyAHP and evidence reasoning
文章编号:
1673-193X(2020)-01-0123-07
作者:
孙延浩; 张琦; 张芸鹏
（1.中国铁道科学研究院 研究生部，北京 100081；
2.中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司 通信信号研究所，北京 100081；
3.中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司 国家铁路智能运输系统工程技术研究中心，北京 100081）
Author(s):
SUN Yanhao;  ZHANG Qi;  ZHANG Yunpeng
(1.Postgraduate Department,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;
2.Signal & Communication Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;
3.National Research Center of Railway Intelligence Transportation System Engineering Technology,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)
关键词:
铁路运输; 证据推理; 模糊层次分析法; 应急预案
Keywords:
railway transportation;  evidence reasoning;  FuzzyAHP;  emergency plan
分类号:
X913.4；U298
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.01.020
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为解决铁路应急预案评价中存在的不确定性问题，提出基于证据推理的应急预案评价方法，从完整性、可操作性、针对性、协作性和可持续性5个维度构建应急预案评价指标体系；采用模糊层次分析法对指标权重进行计算，并通过证据推理对专家的评价数据进行证据合成，得到各预案评价等级分布；将各预案评价等级分布与评价效用结合，最终得到各预案评价排序。结果表明：实例分析表明，提出的评价方法对于处理不确定多属性的评价问题具有较强的可行性和适用性。
Abstract:
Aiming at the uncertainty problem in the evaluation of railway emergency plan,a method of emergency plan evaluation based on the evidence reasoning was put forward,and an index system of emergency plan evaluation was constructed from five dimensions of integrity,operability,pertinence,collaboration and sustainability.The weights of indexes were calculated by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method (FuzzyAHP),and the evidence synthesis was carried out on the evaluation data of experts through the evidence reasoning.The distribution of evaluation grades for each plan was obtained and combined with the evaluation utility,and the evaluation ranking of each plan was finally obtained.The case study shows that the proposed evaluation method has strong feasibility and applicability for dealing with uncertain multi-attribute evaluation problems.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2019-08-09
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金委员会-中国铁路总公司高速铁路基础研究联合基金项目(U1834211)
作者简介： 孙延浩，博士研究生，主要研究方向为铁路运输、交通信息工程及控制。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-03-02