|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]徐坚强,刘小勇,苏燕飞,等.基于贝叶斯网络的建筑火灾动态风险评估方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(2):138-144.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.02.022]
　XU Jianqiang,LIU Xiaoyong,SU Yanfei,et al.Study on dynamic risk assessment method of building fire based on Bayesian network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(2):138-144.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.02.022]
点击复制

基于贝叶斯网络的建筑火灾动态风险评估方法研究
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
15
期数:
2019年2期
页码:
138-144
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2019-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on dynamic risk assessment method of building fire based on Bayesian network
文章编号:
1673-193X(2019)-02-0138-07
作者:
徐坚强1; 2;  刘小勇2;  苏燕飞2; 3;  黄潜生2; 3
（1.安徽建筑大学 土木工程学院，安徽 合肥 230601；
2.清华大学合肥公共安全研究院，安徽 合肥 230601；
3.辰安天泽智联技术有限责任公司，安徽 合肥 230601）
Author(s):
XU Jianqiang1; 2;  LIU Xiaoyong2;  SU Yanfei2; 3;  HUANG Qiansheng2; 3
(1. College of Civil Engineering, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei Anhui 230601, China;
2. Hefei Institute for Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Hefei Anhui 230601, China;
3.Global Safety Tanzer Technology Co.,Ltd,Hefei Anhui, 230601)
关键词:
动态风险评估; 物联网; 大数据; 贝叶斯网络; 建筑火灾
Keywords:
dynamic risk assessment;  internet of things;  big data;  bayesian network;  building fire
分类号:
X913
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.02.022
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为提高建筑火灾风险评估的准确性，建立1种智能化的动态风险评估方法。针对具体建筑的风险评估，以物联网技术为基础，构建智能消防监测系统，在建筑日常使用过程中通过动态风险评估，实现火灾风险要素的实时监测、数据传输，充分发挥大数据、云计算的支撑作用，将贝叶斯网络方法引入火灾风险定量评估过程，构建火灾动态风险评估模型；结合具体的应用实例，分析不确定因素对风险评估结果的影响。研究结果表明：基于贝叶斯网络的动态风险评估方法能较准确地反映建筑火灾风险的可能性，达到实时监测、动态评估的效果。
Abstract:
In order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment on the building fire, an intelligent dynamic risk assessment method was established. Aiming at the risk assessment of specific buildings, an intelligent fire monitoring system was built based on the technology of Internet of Things. The realtime monitoring and data transmission of fire risk elements were realized through the dynamic risk assessment in the daily usage process of buildings, and the dynamic risk assessment model of fire was constructed by introducing the Bayesian network method into the quantitative risk assessment process of fire with fully playing the supporting role of big data and cloud computing. Combined with the specific application example, the influence of uncertain factors on the results of risk assessment was analyzed in detail. The results showed that the dynamic risk assessment method based on Bayesian network could reflect the possibility of building fire risk more accurately, and achieve the effect of realtime monitoring and assessment.

参考文献/References:

［1］戚斑.近10年亡人火灾统计数据分析及防范对策［J］.中国消防,2017(11):18-23. Qi Ban.Statistical data analysis and preventive measures of the deaths and fires in recent 10 years ［J］. China Fire Control, 2017 (11):18-23.
［2］谢晓刚, 胡忠日, 梅秀娟,等. 火灾风险评估方法及工程实例应用［J］. 消防科学与技术, 2009, 28(1):29-32. XIE Xiaogang,HU Zhongri,MEI Xiujuan, et al.Fire risk assessment method and engineering application ［J］. Fire Science and Technology, 2009,28(1):29-32.
［3］马鑫, 黄全义, 疏学明,等. 物联网在公共安全领域中的应用研究［J］. 中国安全科学学报, 2010, 20(7):170-176. MA Xin,HUANG Quanyi,SHU Xueming, et al. Application of internet of things in public security ［J］. Chinese Journal of Safety Sciences, 2010, 20 (7):170-176.
［4］张春艳.大数据时代的公共安全治理［J］.国家行政学院学报,2014(5):100-104. ZHANG Chunyan.Public security governance in the age of Big Data ［J］. Journal of the National Institute of Administration, 2014(5):100-104.
［5］马德仲,刘圣楠,费晓雨,等.地下建筑火灾风险的贝叶斯网络评估系统设计［J］.哈尔滨理工大学学报,2013,18(4):103-107. MA Dezhong, LIU Shengnan, FEI Xiaoyu,et al.Design of bayesian network assessment system for underground building fire risk ［J］. Journal of Harbin University of Technology, 2013,18(4):103-107.
［6］任波.建筑火灾风险评估方法研究［D］.西安:西安科技大学,2006.
［7］GUSTAVO R G,MARIO M O,CARLOS D K. Early Infrastructure of an Internet of Things in Spaces for Learning［C］// The 8th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Learning Technologies, ICALT 2008, July 1st- July 5th, 2008, Santander, Cantabria, Spain. IEEE, 2008.
［8］AMARDEO C,SARMA J G. Identities in the Future Internet of Things［J］. Wireless Personal Communications, 2009, 49(3):353-363.
［9］赵国栋, 易欢欢, 糜万军. 大数据时代的历史机遇:产业变革与数据科学［M］. 北京:清华大学出版社,2013.
［10］PEARL J . Fusion, propagation, and structuring in belief networks［J］. Artificial Intelligence, 1986, 29(3):241-288.
［11］马德仲, 丁文飞, 刘圣楠, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络的地下空间火灾风险评估方法研究［J］. 中国安全科学学报, 2013, 23(11):151-156. MA Dezhong, DING Wenfei,LIU Shengnan,et al.Research on fire risk assessment method of underground space based on Bayesian network［J］. Chinese Journal of Safety Sciences, 2013,23(11):151-156.
［12］刘爱华, 施式亮, 吴超. 高层建筑火灾风险评估的指标体系设计［J］. 中国工程科学, 2006, 8(9):90-94. LIU Aihua, SHI Shiliang,WU Chao.Design of index system for fire risk assessment of high-rise buildings ［J］. China Engineering Science, 2006,8(9):90-94.
［13］张俊朋,于兴腾.基于层次分析法的高校图书馆火灾风险评价指标体系研究［J］.安全,2017,38(3):23-26. ZHANG Junpeng, YU Xingteng.Research on fire risk assessment index system of efficient library based on analytic hierarchy process［J］. Safety,2017,38(3):23-26.

相似文献/References:

[1]王建强.物联网在感知矿山建设中的应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(5):184.
　WANG Jian qiang.Application of IOT in construction of sensory mine[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(2):184.
[2]崔铁良,卢许,陈援非.基于云服务的家庭物联网智能消防系统[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(12):196.
　CUI Tie liang,LU Xu,CHEN Yuan fei.Emergency monitoring system of home fire based on cloud services[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(2):196.
[3]李存岑,李顺荣,徐榕,等.基于物联网技术的特种设备监检移动办公系统开发[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(9):165.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.031]
　LI Cun cen,LI Shun rong,XU Rong,et al.Development of mobile office system for supervision and inspection of special equipment based on Internet of things[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(2):165.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.031]
[4]姜洲,陈学力,方伟立,等.基于尾矿库安全物联网决策支持系统研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(5):120.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.05.021]
　JIANG Zhou,CHEN Xueli,FANG Weili,et al.Research on decision-making support system of tailing pond safety based on Internet of Things[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(2):120.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.05.021]
[5]邸鸿喜,魏玖长,张亚,等.重大疫情下疫苗冷链物流在物联网环境中的风险评估*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(4):54.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.04.008]
　DI Hongxi,WEI Jiuchang,ZHANG Ya,et al.Risk assessment on cold chain logistics of vaccine in Internet of Things environment under major epidemic situation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(2):54.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.04.008]
[6]周炜,王亮,赵挺生,等.施工过程安全数字孪生模型的构建和应用*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(6):5.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.06.001]
　ZHOU Wei,WANG Liang,ZHAO Tingsheng,et al.Construction and application of digital twin model in construction process safety[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(2):5.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.06.001]
[7]彭阳,余芳强,杨祺,等.医院智能应急疏散导航方法与物联网应用研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(7):213.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.031]
　PENG Yang,YU Fangqiang,YANG Qi,et al.Research on intelligent emergency evacuation navigation method and IoT application for hospitals[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(2):213.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.031]
[8]陈述,鲁世立,王建平,等.融合Unity3D的缆索起重机安全运行数字孪生模型构建方法*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(1):154.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.01.023]
　CHEN Shu,LU Shili,WANG Jianping,et al.Construction method of digital twin model for safe operation of cable crane by integrating Unity3D[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(2):154.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.01.023]
[9]苏峰,张钧,朱晓平,等.基于FDS的管廊电缆火灾动态风险评估研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(5):77.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.05.011]
　SU Feng,ZHANG Jun,ZHU Xiaoping,et al.Research on dynamic risk assessment of cable fire inside utility tunnel based on FDS[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(2):77.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.05.011]
[10]吴健,王志鹏,谢丹,等.变电站火灾监测预警及自动灭火智慧系统设计*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2025,21(1):175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.01.023]
　WU Jian,WANG Zhipeng,XIE Dan,et al.Design of intelligent system for fire monitoring and early-warning and automatic fire extinguishing of substation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2025,21(2):175.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.01.023]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2018-10-30
基金项目： 国家十三五重点研发计划项目 (2018YFC0810603)；国家应急管理部消防救援局项目（2018XFCX25）
作者简介： 徐坚强，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为公共安全、消防社会化。
通信作者： 刘小勇，博士，高级工程师，主要研究方向为公共安全。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-03-06