|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]左哲,王敏,姚志强,等.金属埋地管道腐蚀泄漏及大气扩散过程推理模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(3):82-89.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.013]
　ZUO Zhe,WANG Min,YAO Zhiqiang,et al.Study on inference model of corrosion leakage and atmospheric diffusion processes for buried metal pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(3):82-89.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.013]
点击复制

金属埋地管道腐蚀泄漏及大气扩散过程推理模型研究
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
13
期数:
2017年3期
页码:
82-89
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2017-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on inference model of corrosion leakage and atmospheric diffusion processes for buried metal pipeline
文章编号:
1673-193X(2017)-03-0082-08
作者:
左哲1;  王敏2;  姚志强1;  孙恩吉1
1.中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012；2.国家安全生产监督管理总局信息研究院，北京 100029
Author(s):
ZUO Zhe1;  WANG Min2;  YAO Zhiqiang1;  SUN Enji1
1. China Academy of Safety Science & Technology, Beijing 100012, China; 2. National Institute for Occupational Safety, Beijing 100029, China
关键词:
埋地金属管道; 泄漏; 腐蚀; 贝叶斯网络; 蒙特卡罗模拟
Keywords:
buried metal pipeline;  leakage;  corrosion;  Bayesian network;  Monte Carlo simulation
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.013
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了定量评估埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏的风险，将贝叶斯网络和蒙特卡罗模拟方法用于计算管道腐蚀泄漏及扩散范围概率。建立了埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏贝叶斯网络，量化了各事件之间的关联。在已知先验概率的基础上，运用贝叶斯概率计算得到管道腐蚀泄漏的后验概率值。利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对泄漏后气体扩散范围进行了数值模拟，给出了主要模型变量的概率密度函数，得到了扩散区域范围概率分布特征。研究结果表明，管道腐蚀泄漏过程受输送介质和土壤腐蚀性、防腐措施有效性和大气扩散条件的影响，具有较大的不确定性。分析方法考虑了模型参数随机性对计算结果的影响，评估结果可以用于比较不同条件下埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏扩散的风险。
Abstract:
In order to assess the corrosion leakage risk of buried metal pipeline quantitatively, the Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation method were applied to calculate the probability of pipeline corrosion leakage and diffusion range. The Bayesian network on corrosion leakage of buried metal pipeline was established, and the association among each event was quantified. On the basis of known priori probability, the Bayesian probability was used to calculate the posterior probability of pipeline corrosion leakage. The numerical simulation was conducted on the gas diffusion range after leakage by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The probability density function of main model variables was presented, and the probability distribution characteristics of diffusion area range were obtained. The results showed that the corrosion leakage process of pipeline has a greater uncertainty due to the influence of transmission medium, soil corrosivity, effectiveness of anticorrosion measures and atmospheric diffusion conditions. The analysis method considers the influence of randomness in model parameters on the calculation results, and the assessment results can be used to compare the risk of corrosion leakage and diffusion for buried metal pipeline under different conditions.

参考文献/References:

［1］黄小美, 李百战, 彭世尼，等. 燃气管道失效概率评估方法研究［J］. 石油学报, 2010, 31 (4)：664-667. HUANG Xiaomei, LI Baizhan, PENG Shini，et al. Assessment methods of failure probability on gas pipelines［J］. Acta petrolei sincic, 2010, 31 (4)：664-667.
［2］靳书斌, 郑洪龙, 侯磊，等. 高压燃气管道第三方破坏失效概率计算［J］. 油气储运, 2014, 33 (5)：510-514. JIN Shubin, ZHENG Honglong，HOU Lei，et al. Calculation of failure probability of the third-party interference for high pressure gas pipeline［J］. Gas storage and transportation, 2014, 33 (5)：510-514.
［3］王禹川, 赵常俊, 黄月等. 含裂纹缺陷油气管道失效概率定量评估［J］. 安全与环境工程，2014，21(3)：126-129. WANG Yuchuan, ZHAO Changjun, HUANG Yue，et al. Quantitative evaluation of the failure probability of oil and gas pipelines containing crack defects［J］. Safety and environmental engineering，2014，21(3)：126-129.
［4］陈学锋, 于倩秀. 油气长输管道安全评价方法——肯特法简介［J］. 安全、健康和环境，2006，6（3）：27-29. CHEN Xuefeng, YU Qianxiu. Safety assessment method of oil/gas long pipeline—Kent method's introduction［J］. Safety health & environment，2006，6（3）：27-29.
［5］马晓骊. 故障树分析法在中缅长输原油管道失效风险评价的应用［J］. 新疆石油天然气，2014，10（3）：119-125. MA Xiaoli. The application of China-BURMA long distance oil pipeline failure risk assessment in the fault tree analysis［J］. Xinjiang oil & gas，2014，10（3）：119-125.
［6］彭星煜, 刘力升, 吕娜，等. 基于BP神经网络的油气长输管道失效概率预测［J］. 全面腐蚀控制，2009，23（5）：12-16. PENG Xingyu, LIU Lisheng, LYU Na，et al. Long-distance oil/gas pipeline failure rate prediction using BP artificial neural network model［J］. Total corrosion control，2009，23（5）：12-16.
［7］俞树荣, 马欣, 梁端,等. 基于层次分析法的管道风险因素权数确定［J］. 天然气工业，2005，25（6）：132-135. YU Shurong, MA Xin, LIANG Duan，et al. Weights calculation of pipeline risk factors based on hierarchy analysis method［J］. Natural gas industry，2005，25（6）：132-135.
［8］王瀚翎, 付冬梅. 基于区间直觉模糊数的管道失效概率评估［J］. 油气储运, 2014, 33 (12)：1301-1306. WANG Hanling, FU Dongmei. Assessment of pipeline failure probability based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number［J］. Gas storage and transportation, 2014, 33 (12)：1301-1306.
［9］American Petroleum Institute. Risk-Based Inspection Base Resource Document［S］. API pub 581(1st ed), 2002.
［10］高建明, 刘骥, 曾明荣，等. 我国生产安全领域个人风险和社会风险标准界定方法研究［J］. 中国安全科学学报, 2007, 17 (10): 91-95. GAO Jianming, LIU Ji，ZENG Mingrong,et al. Determination of individual risk and social risk standard about work safety［J］. China safety science journal, 2007, 17 (10): 91-95.
［11］廖芹, 郝志峰, 陈志宏. 数据挖掘与数学建模［M］. 北京：国防工业出版社，2010：292.
［12］Muhlbauer W K.管道风险管理手册(第二版)［M］.杨嘉瑜,张德彦,李钦华,等,译. 北京:中国石化出版社,2005：36-64.
［13］杜新燕, 秦风, 黄淑菊，等. 氯离子浓度对土壤腐蚀速率的影响［J］. 广东化工, 2010, 38(9): 41-42.
［14］Du Xinyan, Qin Feng, HUANG Shujyu，et al. Influence of cl- concentration in soil on the corrosion rate［J］. Guangdong Chemical Industry, 2010, 38(9): 41-42.
［15］Jo Y D, Ahn B J. Analysis of hazard areas associated with high-pressure natural gas pipelines［J］. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2002, 15:179-188.
［16］蒋永清, 任喆, 孙超，等. 埋地管道泄漏天然气在分层填筑土壤扩散数值模拟研究［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2016, 12(6): 105-109. JIANG Yongqing, REN Zhe, SUN Chao，et al. Numerical simulation research on diffusion of natural gas leaking from buried pipeline in layered filling soil［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2016, 12(6): 105-109.
［17］唐保金, 田贯三, 张增刚, 等. 埋地燃气管道泄漏扩散模型［J］. 煤气与热力, 2009, 29(5): B01- B05. TANG Baojin, TIAN Guansan, ZHANG Zenggang，et al. Model for leakage and diffusion of buried gas pipiline［J］. Gas & Heat, 2009, 29(5): B01- B05.
［18］李雪洁, 金齐杰, 夏茂进，等. 埋地管道泄漏模型初探［J］. 广州化工, 2010, 38(9): 41-42. LI Xuejie, JIN Qijie, XIA Maojin，et al. Simply study on buried pipeline leakage model［J］. Guangzhou Chemical Industry, 2010, 38(9): 41-42.
［19］严彦, 许昌, 刘德有, 等. 测风数据的时间间隔对风速概率分布参数计算的影响［J］. 可再生能源, 2011, 29(6):24-28. YAN Yan, XU Chang, LIU Deyou，et al. Study on probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed influenced by different anemometer time intervals［J］. Renewable Energy Resources, 2011, 29(6):24-28.
［20］宾德，赫尔曼. 统计物理学中的蒙特卡罗模拟方法［M］. 秦克诚，译. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 1994: 165-178.
［21］国家质量监督检验检疫总局. 埋地钢质管道腐蚀防护工程检验: GB/T 19285-2014［S］.北京：中国标准出版社, 2014：4.
［22］国家质量监督检验检疫总局. 天然气: GB 17820-2012 ［S］.北京：中国标准出版社, 2012：1.

相似文献/References:

[1]丁德武,邹兵,高少华,等.危化品突发泄漏事故应急监测标准化作业研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):61.
　DING De-wu,ZOU Bing,GAO Shao-hua,et al.Research on standard operation procedure of emergency inspection in hazardous chemicals leakage accident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(3):61.
[2]王文静,孙标,郭开华.液化天然气场站事故定量风险评价方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(4):114.
　WANG Wen-jing,SUN Biao,GUO Kai-hua.Quantitative Risk Analysis for LNG Station Accidents[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(3):114.
[3]李朝阳,马贵阳,徐柳.架空及埋地天然气管道泄漏扩散数值研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(7):66.
　LI Zhao-yang,MA Gui-yang,XU Liu.The numerical study of the diffusion concentration on buried and Overhead[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(3):66.
[4]高少华,邹兵,严龙,等.含硫天然气净化厂硫化氢泄漏分析及对策[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(2):174.
　GAO Shao hua,ZOU Bing,YAN Long,et al.Study of hydrogen sulfide leakage and dispersion in sour gas purification plants and countermeasures[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(3):174.
[5]谢昱姝,吴宗之,吕良海,等.城市管道天然气在土壤中泄漏扩散实验研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(4):13.
　XIE Yu shu,WU Zong zhi,L Liang hai,et al.Experimental research on diffusion behavior of leaked gas from underground gas pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(3):13.
[6]庞〓磊,,吕良海,等.密闭空间燃气泄漏爆炸危险区域迁移规律[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(8):47.
　PANG Lei,LV Liang hai,et al.Migration laws of hazardous zone for natural gas leakage explosion in enclosed spaces[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(3):47.
[7]刘瑞凯,吴〓明,王同秀,等.海底埋地热油管道泄漏扩散的数值模拟[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(8):63.
　LIU Rui kai,WU Ming,WANG Tong xiu,et al.Numerical simulation on leakage and diffusion of submarine buried hot oil pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(3):63.
[8]岳〓忠,张月山.电站锅炉管件失效泄漏原因分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(9):150.
　YUE Zhong,ZHANG Yue shan.Cause analysis of leakage by tube failure of power station boiler[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(3):150.
[9]王学岐,韩兆辉,宋丹青.基于CFD的液化气罐区泄漏爆炸事故后果模拟[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(2):64.
　WANG Xue qi,HAN Zhao hui,SONG Dan qing.Simulation on leakage explosion consequence of LPG tank farms based on CFD[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(3):64.
[10]程民生.火电厂脱硝工程液氨泄漏事故风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(2):140.
　CHENG Min sheng.Risk analysis of the liquid ammonia leakage accident in the DeNOx system of themal power plant[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(3):140.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研专项资金项目（20175BK13，2016JBK07）
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-03-30