|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]崔文罡,范厚明,姚茜,等.基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(12):92-98.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.016]
　CUI Wengang,FAN Houming,YAO Xi,et al.Risk analysis on oil spill in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker based on fuzzy Bow-tie model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(12):92-98.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.016]
点击复制

基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年12期
页码:
92-98
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis on oil spill in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker based on fuzzy Bow-tie model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2016)-12-0092-07
作者:
崔文罡1; 范厚明1; 2; 姚茜1; 2; 杨宇1; 马梦知1; 2
（1.大连海事大学 交通运输管理学院，辽宁 大连 116026；2.大连海事大学 战略管理与系统规划研究所，辽宁 大连 116026）
Author(s):
CUI Wengang1;  FAN Houming1; 2;  YAO Xi1; 2;  YANG Yu1;  MA Mengzhi1; 2
(1. College of Transportation Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China; 2. Institute of Strategy Management and System Planning, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China)
关键词:
模糊Bow-tie模型; 油轮; 靠泊; 装卸作业; 溢油; 风险分析
Keywords:
fuzzy Bow-tie model;  oil tanker;  berthing;  handling operation;  oil spill;  risk analysis
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.016
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了全面分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油事故风险，在风险定量分析中引入了模糊Bow-tie模型，基于事故树方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业发生溢油事故的原因，采用事件树方法分析溢油事故可能导致的后果，利用模糊集理论与专家评价相结合的方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油的模糊可能值，采用层次分析法确定作业溢油后果因素的权重值，采用矩阵乘法计算溢油后果风险值。分析结果表明：油轮靠港装卸作业过程中一旦发生溢油，发生火灾+污染、爆炸+污染的概率较高。基于以上风险分析提出了油轮靠港装卸作业风险的防控措施，可为油轮靠港装卸作业安全风险管理提供参考。
Abstract:
In order to fully analyze the risk of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker, the fuzzy Bow-tie model was introduced into the quantitative risk analysis. The method of fault tree analysis was applied to analyze the causes of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker, while the method of event tree analysis was used to analyze the possible consequences. The fuzzy possibility value of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker was obtained by combining the fuzzy set theory with expert evaluation, then the weight values of oil spill consequence factors were determined by the method of analytic hierarchy process, and the risk value of oil spill consequences were calculated by the matrix multiplication. The results showed that there is a higher probability of both fire and pollution, and both explosion and pollution once the oil spill accident occurs. Based on the risk analysis, the prevention and control measures of risk in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker were put forward, which can provide reference for the risk management in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker.

参考文献/References:

［1］Arslan O. Quantitative evaluation of precautions on chemical tanker operations［J］. Process Safetyand Environmental Protection, 2009, 87(2):113-120.
[2]VALDOR P F, GOMEZ A G, PUENTE A. Environmental risk analysis of oil handling facilities in port areas. Application to Tarragona harbor (NE Spain)［J］. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2015, 90(1/2): 78-87.
[3]江文, 蒋宏业, 蒋安荔,等. 基于贝叶斯网络的油码头装卸设备溢油失效可能性研究［J］. 石油工业技术监督, 2015, 31(6):8-12. JIANG Wen, JIANG Hongye, JIANG Anli, et al. Study on the possibility of the oil spilling failure of handing facilities in oil wharf based on Bayesian network［J］.Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry,2015, 31(6):8-12.
[4]刘金岭，张朝晖，王金鹿，等.大型油轮接卸作业风险及其控制措施［J］.油气储运，2012，31（1）：57-60. LIU Jinling, ZHANG Zhaohui, WANG Jinlu, et al. Risk and control measures of oil loading and oil unloading work for large-scale oil tanker［J］. Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation，2012，31(1):57-60.
[5]陈伟亚，张露萍. 油码头环境风险分析及预防措施［J］. 武汉工程大学学报，2015，37(8) :26-31. CHEN Weiya, ZHANG Luping. Environmental risk of petrol wharf and its preventive measures［J］. Journal of Wuhan Institute of Technology,2015, 37(8):26-31.
[6]谢书杉，周宝勇，张志超.油码头装卸作业风险管理［J］.中国水运:上半月，2011（6）：14-15. XIE Shubin, ZHOU Baoyong, ZHANG Zhichao. Risk management of handling operation in oil terminal［J］. China Water Transport, 2011(6):14-15.
[7]王晓丽,魏志兵,彭士涛,等. 基于主成分分析法的石化码头装卸过程安全评价［J］. 工业安全与环保, 2014, 40(8):1-4. WANG Xiaoli,WEI Zhibing, PENG Shitao, et al. Safety evaluation on handling process of petrochemical wharf based on principal component analysis［J］. Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection, 2014, 40(8): 1-4.
[8]YANG Zaili, NG A K, WANG Jin. A new risk quantification approach in port facility security assessment［J］. Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice, 2014, 59(1): 72-90.
[9]Pak J Y, Yeo G T, Oh S W, et al. Port safety evaluation from a captain’s perspective: The Korean experience［J］. Safety Science, 2015, 72:172-181.
[10]Mokhtari K, Ren J, Roberts C, et al. Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals［J］. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2011, 192(2):465-475.
[11]LU Linlin, LIANG Wei, ZHANG Laibin, et al. A comprehensive risk evaluation method for natural gas pipelines by combining a risk matrix with a bow-tie model［J］. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 2015, 25:124-133.
[12]SHAHRIAR A, SADIQ R, TESFAMARIAM S. Risk analysis for oil & gas pipelines: A sustainability assessment approach using fuzzy based bow-tie analysis［J］. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2012, 25(3): 505-523.
[13]胡显伟,段梦兰,官耀华. 基于模糊Bow-tie模型的深水海底管道定量风险评价研究［J］. 中国安全科学学报,2012,22(3):128-133. HU Xianwei, DUAN Menglan, GUAN Yaohua. Quantitative risk assessment of deepwater submarine pipeline based on fuzzy bow-tie model［J］.Chian Safety Science Journal, 2012, 22(3) :128-133.
[14]於孝春, 贾朋美, 张兴. 基于模糊Bow-tie模型的城镇燃气管道泄漏定量风险评价［J］. 天然气工业, 2013, 33(7):134-139. YU Xiaochun, JIA Pengmei, ZHANG Xing. Quantitative risk assessment of urban gas piplines based on the fuzzy Bow-tie model［J］. Natural Gas Industry, 2013, 33(7):134-139.
[15]CLEMEN R T, WINKLER R L. Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis［J］. Risk Analysis, 1999, 20(2):155-156.
[16]Shujen Chen, Chinglai Hwang. Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making methods and application［M］. Germany Springer Verlag Berlin Herdelberg, 1990.

相似文献/References:

[1]迟明华,蒋宏业,赵新好,等.基于UHBs的输气管道高后果区泄漏燃爆事故分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(7):41.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.07.007]
　CHI Minghua,JIANG Hongye,ZHAO Xinhao,et al.Analysis on leakage and explosion accidents in high consequence areas of gas pipeline based on UHBs[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(12):41.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.07.007]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目（61473053）；辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目（L16AGL004）；大连市科学技术计划项目（2015D12ZC181）
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-01-13