|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]刘书杰,李相方,周悦,等.基于贝叶斯—LOPA方法的深水钻井安全屏障可靠性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(9):187-195.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.09.032]
　LIU Shu-jie,LI Xiang-fang,ZHOU Yue,et al.Reliability analysis on safety barriers of deep-water drilling based on Bayesian-LOPA method[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(9):187-195.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.09.032]
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基于贝叶斯—LOPA方法的深水钻井安全屏障可靠性分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
10
期数:
2014年9期
页码:
187-195
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2014-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Reliability analysis on safety barriers of deep-water drilling based on Bayesian-LOPA method
作者:
刘书杰1; 3;  李相方1; 2 ;  周悦1; 樊建春1
( 1中国石油大学<北京> 机械与储运工程学院，北京102249;2中国石油大学<北京> 石油工程学院，北京102249； 3. 中海油研究总院，北京100027)
Author(s):
LIU Shu-jie1; 3;  LI Xiang-fang1; 2;  ZHOU Yue1;  FAN Jian-chun1
( 1. College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; 2. College of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; 3. China National Offshore Oil Corporation Research Center, Beijing 100027, China）
关键词:
深水钻井; 安全屏障; 可靠性; 贝叶斯—LOPA; 独立保护层
Keywords:
deep-water drilling;  safety barrier;  reliability;  Bayesian-LOPA;  independent protection layers
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.09.032
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
据统计，钻井过程是海上井喷事故的高发阶段，为保障钻井安全进行，安装了节流管线、防喷器等安全屏障减缓系统风险，安全屏障的可靠性直接影响钻井安全。利用贝叶斯—LOPA方法建立深水钻井安全屏障可靠性分析模型，以储层-溢流-井涌-井喷为事件链，运用三级井控理论建立独立保护层，每一保护层运用贝叶斯网络方法计算失效概率。在GeNIe软件中完成模型建立，并且完成后验概率计算、敏感性分析、影响力分析。通过分析计算结果给出风险控制关键事件和风险减缓措施，为钻井现场安全工作提出指导意见，确保深水钻井安全有序进行。
Abstract:
According to the statistic results, drilling process has high rates of blowout accidents during the offshore oil exploration process. In order to ensure the safety of drilling, the safety barriers such as choke manifold and blowout preventer have been installed to reduce the system risk of deep-water drilling, and the reliability of barriers influences the safety of drilling directly. The model for reliability analysis of safety barriers in deep-water drilling was established based on Bayesian-LOPA method. Regarding reservoir -overflow -well kick-blowout as event chain, the independent protective layer was built by tertiary well control theory, and the failure probability of each layer was calculated by Bayesian network method. The calculation model was established by GeNIe software, and the calculation of posterior probability, the analysis of sensitivity and influence were accomplished. The critical events controlling the risk and the measures to mitigate the risk were presented by analyzing the results. It can provide the instructions for the on-site safety work of drilling to ensure the safe and orderly operation of deep-water drilling.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

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更新日期/Last Update: 2014-09-30