|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]钟鸣宇,马秋菊.化工企业DVR风险分析模型的构建及应用——基于公共安全三角形模型*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(12):23-29.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.004]
　ZHONG Mingyu,MA Qiuju.Construction and application of DVR risk analysis model for chemical enterprises—Based on public safety triangle model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(12):23-29.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.004]
点击复制

化工企业DVR风险分析模型的构建及应用——基于公共安全三角形模型*
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
16
期数:
2020年12期
页码:
23-29
栏目:
特邀专栏
出版日期:
2020-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Construction and application of DVR risk analysis model for chemical enterprises—Based on public safety triangle model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2020)-12-0023-07
作者:
钟鸣宇; 马秋菊
（中国矿业大学（北京） 煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室，北京 100083）
Author(s):
ZHONG Mingyu;  MA Qiuju
(State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining,China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
关键词:
破坏性; 脆弱性; 可恢复性; 三角形模型; 风险分析
Keywords:
destructiveness;  vulnerability;  recoverability;  triangle model;  risk analysis
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.004
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为对化工企业风险进行评价，根据公共安全三角形理论，从危险源破坏性、目标脆弱性和应急处置可恢复性3个方面建立风险分析模型。在危险源破坏性上，从事故发生可能性和事故后果危险性2个方面进行讨论并得出可能性和危险性系数。在目标脆弱性上，建立人和物的脆弱性计算模型得出目标脆弱性的系数。设立应急管理指标，结合专家评分得出应急处置可恢复性系数。将各系数归一化相乘得到化工安全风险分析整合系数，建立基于危险源破坏性（Destructiveness）、目标脆弱性（Vulnerability）、应急处置可恢复性（Recoverability）的DVR风险分析模型，并进行应用实例分析。结果表明：该模型在化工企业的风险评价中具有一定的实用性。
Abstract:
In order to evaluate the risk of chemical enterprises,according to the public safety triangle theory,a risk analysis model was established from three aspects: the destructiveness of hazards,the vulnerability of targets and the recoverability of emergency response.In terms of the destructiveness of hazards,two aspects including the possibility of accident occurrence and the danger of accident consequence were discussed,and the possibility and risk coefficient were obtained.In terms of target vulnerability,a calculation model of human and material vulnerability was established to obtain the coefficient of target vulnerability.The indexes of emergency management were set up,and the recoverability coefficient of emergency response was obtained combining with the expert scores.The integration coefficient of chemical safety risk analysis was obtained by multiplying the normalized coefficients,and a DVR risk analysis model based on the destructiveness of hazards (Destructiveness),the vulnerability of targets (Vulnerability) and the recoverability of emergency response (Recoverability) was established.The analysis of application example showed that the model had certain practicability in the risk assessment of chemical enterprises.

参考文献/References:

［1］胡万吉.2009—2018年我国化工事故统计与分析［J］.今日消防,2019,4(2):3-7. HU Wanji.Statistics and analysis of my country’s chemical industry accidents during 2009-2018 ［J］.Fire Protection Today,2019,4(2):3-7.
［2］MARKOWSKIA S,MANNANM S.ExSys-LOPA for the chemical process industry ［J］.Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2010,23(6):688-696.
［3］程宇和.化工企业危险源风险管理信息系统的研究［D］.镇江:江苏大学,2007.
［4］JIANG D,PAN X H,HUA M,et al.Assessment of tanks vulnerability and domino effect analysis in chemical storage plants ［J］.Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2019,60:174-182.
［5］彭子涵.化工园区脆弱性分析与应用研究［D］.北京:北京化工大学,2016.
［6］胡静涛.化工园区危险脆弱性分析［D］.哈尔滨:哈尔滨理工大学,2014.
［7］卢丹丹.石化企业承灾体脆弱性评估研究［D］.天津:天津工业大学,2016.
［8］SALVI O,DEBRAY B.A global view on ARAMIS,a risk assessment methodology for industries in the framework of the SEVESO II directive ［J］.Journal of Hazardous Materials,2006,130(3):187-199.
［9］HEATH R.Dealing with the complete crisis：the crisis management shell structure ［J］.Safety Science,1998,30(1-2):139-150.
［10］SHIRALI G H A,MOTAMEDZADE M,MOHAMMADFAM I,et al.Challenges in building resilience engineering (RE) and adaptive capacity:a field study in a chemical plant ［J］.Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2012,90(2):83-90.
［11］陈安,赵晶,张睿.应急管理中的可恢复性评价［J］.科学对社会的影响,2009(2):36-39. CHEN An,ZHAO Jing,ZHANG Rui.Recoverability assessment in emergency management ［J］.Impact of Science on Society,2009(2):36-39.
［12］上官艳秋,陈安,倪慧荟.突发事件应急管理中的“可挽救性”度量评价模型研究［J］.中国软科学,2009(9):165-173. SHANGGUAN Yanqiu,CHEN An,NI Huihui.Research on the assessment model for salvability inemergency management ［J］.China Soft Science,2009(9):165-173.
［13］陈安,李季梅,陈宁.应急管理中“可减缓性”评价模型及应用［J］.科技促进发展,2010(3):54-59. CHEN An,LI Jimei,CHEN Ning.“Mitigability” measurement model and application in emergency management ［J］.Science & Technology for Development,2010(3):54-59.
［14］范维澄,晓讷.公共安全的研究领域与方法［J］.劳动保护,2012(12):70-71. FAN Weicheng,XIAO Ne.Research fields and methods of public safety ［J］.Labour Protection,2012(12):70-71.
［15］范维澄.安全韧性城市发展趋势［J］.劳动保护,2020(3):20-23. FAN Weicheng.The development trend of safe and resilient cities ［J］.Labour Protection,2020(3):20-23.
［16］中华人民共和国应急管理部.危险化学品从业单位安全标准化通用规范:AQ 3013—2008 ［S］.北京:煤炭工业出版社,2009.
［17］刘禹彤.基于ARAMIS的化工园区风险评价方法研究［D］.沈阳:沈阳航空航天大学,2014.
［18］蒋军成.事故调查与分析技术［M］.北京:化学工业出版社,2009.
［19］徐志胜.安全系统工程［M］.北京:机械工业出版社,2016.
［20］吴宗之.危险评价方法及其应用［M］.北京:冶金出版社,2001.
［21］中华人民共和国应急管理部.危险化学品重大危险源辨识:GB 18218—2018 ［S］.北京:中国标准出版社,2018.
［22］谭朝阳.化工园区脆弱性综合评估方法研究［D］.天津:南开大学,2012.
［23］陈雪.化工园区定量风险评估研究［D］.沈阳:沈阳理工大学,2018.

相似文献/References:

[1]刘铁民.事故灾难成因再认识——脆弱性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(5):5.
　LIU Tie-min.Recognition of disaster causes—study of the vulnerability[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(12):5.
[2]王汉斌,高翔.煤矿企业脆弱性评估的AHPRS组合权重法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(3):170.
　WANG Han bing,GAO Xiang.Vulnerability assessment of coal mine enterprise with the method of ascertaining weight based on analytic hierarchy process and rough set[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(12):170.
[3]刘铁民.火灾频发暴露我国城市公共安全系统脆弱性[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(3):5.
　LIU Tie-min.The frequent fire accidents exposed the vulnerability of urban public safety system[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(12):5.
[4]刘铁民,徐永莉,王浩.重特大事故频发凸显生产安全的系统脆弱性——2013年几起特大事故反思[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(4):5.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.04.001]
　LIU Tie-min,XU Yong-li,WANG Hao.The frequent serious accidents exposing the system vulnerability of work safety——Reflection on several serious accidents in 2013[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(12):5.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.04.001]
[5]门永生,于振,朱朝阳,等.基于PSR模型的电网基础设施脆弱性评估方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(8):169.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.08.030]
　MEN Yong-sheng,YU Zhen,ZHU Chao-yang,et al.Research on vulnerability assessment method of power grid infrastructures based on PSR model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(12):169.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.08.030]
[6]李凤,易俊,等.基于SVM的CO2驱油藏输油管道脆弱性评价研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(8):157.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.08.026]
　LI Feng,YI Jun,,et al.Study on vulnerability evaluation of oil pipeline for CO2 flooding reservoir based on SVM[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(12):157.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.08.026]
[7]罗珊,蒋宏业,姚安林,等.输气管道隧道的脆弱性评估方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(2):113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2016.02.020]
　LUO Shan,JIANG Hongye,YAO Anlin,et al.Research on vulnerability assessment method of tunnel for natural gas pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(12):113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2016.02.020]
[8]江新,孙正熙,徐平,等.水电工程施工阶段应急管理系统脆弱性评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(11):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.024]
　JIANG Xin,SUN Zhengxi,XU Ping,et al.Vulnerability evaluation on emergency management system in construction stage of hydropower engineering[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(12):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.024]
[9]许葭,宋守信,翟怀远,等.基于脆弱性的地铁网络事故蔓延模型构建研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(3):96.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.015]
　XU Jia,SONG Shouxin,ZHAI Huaiyuan,et al.Study on construction of accident spread model for subway network based on vulnerability[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(12):96.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.015]
[10]佟瑞鹏,李丹,翟存利.社区安全脆弱性评估模型的构建与应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(3):108.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.017]
　TONG Ruipeng,LI Dan,ZHAI Cunli.Construction and application of evaluation model on vulnerability of community safety[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(12):108.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.03.017]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-12-14
* 基金项目： “煤炭资源与安全开采”国家重点实验室开放基金项目（SKLCRSM19KFA11）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（2020YQAQ05）；消防应急救援装备应急管理部重点实验室开放课题项目（2020XFZB15）
作者简介： 钟鸣宇，硕士，主要研究方向为化工安全。
通信作者： 马秋菊，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为化工安全、危化品燃爆机理与事故预防。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-01-08