[1]李刻钢,杨保华.动态环境下城市公共安全风险模型的逆序现象及其改进研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2025,21(1):16-22.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.01.002]
LI Kegang,YANG Baohua.Research on rank reversal phenomenon of urban public safety risk models in dynamic environments and its improvement[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2025,21(1):16-22.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.01.002]
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动态环境下城市公共安全风险模型的逆序现象及其改进研究*
LI Kegang,YANG Baohua.Research on rank reversal phenomenon of urban public safety risk models in dynamic environments and its improvement[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2025,21(1):16-22.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.01.002]
《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]
- 卷:
- 21
- 期数:
- 2025年1期
- 页码:
- 16-22
- 栏目:
- 学术论著
- 出版日期:
- 2025-01-30
文章信息/Info
- Title:
- Research on rank reversal phenomenon of urban public safety risk models in dynamic environments and its improvement
- 文章编号:
- 1673-193X(2025)-01-0016-07
- Keywords:
- grey correlation; risk assessment; dynamic environment; rank reversal; urban public safety
- 分类号:
- X913
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为减少城市公共安全风险评估模型在面临动态环境时逆序的产生，提升其稳定性，基于三西格玛准则拓展风险评价指标信息，构建基于信息拓展的改进灰色关联度分析风险评估模型，并提出用于稳定性比较的评价指标；结合文献中的案例与数值仿真案例，运用改进灰色关联度分析、灰色关联度分析、TOPSIS、VIKOR和WSM等5种风险评估方法开展对比分析。研究结果表明：改进灰色关联度分析风险评估模型在城市公共安全风险的动态评价情景中具有高度的稳定性，其在斯皮尔曼相关系数、肯德尔等级相关系数、一致性指数和排序稳定性系数等风险评估模型的稳定性检验指标上都是最优的；TOPSIS和WSM风险评估模型的排序稳定性指数方面表现较差，VIKOR风险评估模型在4个模型检验指标上表现都较差。研究结果有助于推动改进灰色关联度分析在多元化评价体系中的深化与发展。
- Abstract:
- To reduce the occurrence of rank reversal in the risk assessment models of urban public safety when facing dynamic environments,and enhance their stability,the information of risk assessment indexes was extended by Three Sigma criteria,then a risk assessment model of improved grey relational analysis based on the information extension was constructed,and the evaluation indexes for stability comparison were proposed.Combining the cases from literature with numerical simulation cases,a comparative analysis was conducted using five risk assessment methods: improved grey relational analysis,grey relational analysis,TOPSIS,VIKOR,and WSM.The results show that the risk assessment model of improved grey relational analysis has high stability in the dynamic evaluation scenario of urban public safety risk,and it is optimal in all the stability test indexes of risk assessment models such as Spearman correlation coefficient,Kendall rank correlation coefficient,consistency index and ranking stability coefficient.However,TOPSIS and WSM risk assessment models present poorer performance in the rank stability index,and VIKOR risk assessment model exhibits unsatisfactory performance across all four model validation indexes.The research results are helpful to promote the deepening and development of improved grey relational analysis in the diversified evaluation system.
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备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
-
收稿日期： 2024-01-25
* 基金项目： 国家社会科学基金项目（19BGL235）
作者简介： 李刻钢，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为风险评估、智能决策。
通信作者： 杨保华，博士，教授，主要研究方向为应急管理、物流与供应链管理等。
