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[1]张新梅,关金月,张傲,等.化工园区事故情景耦合演化的复杂网络分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(6):92-98.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.06.012]
　ZHANG Xinmei,GUAN Jinyue,ZHANG Ao,et al.Complex network analysis on coupling evolution of accident scenarios in chemical industrial parks[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(6):92-98.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.06.012]
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化工园区事故情景耦合演化的复杂网络分析*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
20
期数:
2024年6期
页码:
92-98
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2024-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Complex network analysis on coupling evolution of accident scenarios in chemical industrial parks
文章编号:
1673-193X(2024)-06-0092-07
作者:
张新梅; 关金月; 张傲; 王淇; 陈晨
(1.中国石油大学（华东） 机电工程学院，山东 青岛 266580；
2.中国石油大学（华东） 经济管理学院，山东 青岛 266580)
Author(s):
ZHANG Xinmei;  GUAN Jinyue;  ZHANG Ao;  WANG Qi;  CHEN Chen
(1.College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,China University of Petroleum (East China),Qingdao Shandong 266580,China;
2.School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum (East China),Qingdao Shandong 266580,China)
关键词:
化工园区; 事故情景; 耦合; 复杂网络; 事故防控
Keywords:
chemical industrial park;  accident scenario;  coupling;  complex network;  accident prevention and control
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.06.012
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为进一步研究化工园区事故易因耦合效应引发事故升级等问题，首先，以化工园区储存环节为研究对象，从要素及关系2个角度构建涵盖人因层、物质层、环境层、管理层、组合层及事故层的典型事故情景要素框架体系。然后，基于拓扑理论及相关方法，构建化工园区典型事故情景复杂网络模型，分析复杂网络的统计特征，确定节点的网络贡献度和连接边的脆弱性，探究最大可能的致因路径，并结合事故的演化特征提出断链视角下的应急响应对策。最后，引入案例分析其最大致因路径，并提出相关事故的预防措施。研究结果表明：初期是化工园区事故控制的关键时期，加强员工培训是强化初期处置的重要手段之一，点火源是事故耦合升级的关键因素之一；本文构建的化工园区事故情景演化复杂网络模型具有较好的实用性，案例分析得到的最大致因路径与实际情况基本相符。研究结果可为化工园区的事故防控及演化控制提供一定参考。
Abstract:
To further study the issues of accident escalation caused by coupling effect in chemical industry parks,firstly,taking the storage link of chemical industry parks as the research object,a typical accident scenario element framework system covering human factor layer,material layer,environment layer,management layer,combination layer and accident layer is constructed from two perspectives of elements and relations.Then,based on topology theory and related methods,a complex network model of typical accident scenarios in chemical industry parks is constructed.The statistical characteristics of complex networks are analyzed to determine the network contribution of nodes and the vulnerability of connecting edges,and the most possible cause paths are explored.Combined with the evolution characteristics of accidents,emergency response countermeasures from the perspective of chain scission are proposed.Finally,the application case is used to analyze the most approximate cause path,and the preventive measures of related accidents are put forward.The research results show that in the case accident,the initial stage is the key period of accident control in the chemical industry park.Strengthening employee training is one of the important means to strengthen the initial disposal,and the ignition source is one of the key factors for the accident coupling upgrade.The complex network model of accident scenario evolution in chemical industrial park constructed by has good practicability,and the most general reason is that the path is consistent with the actual situation.The research results can provide some references for accident prevention and evolution control in chemical industrial parks.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2023-12-13
* 基金项目： 2023年度青岛市哲学社会科学规划项目（QDSKL2301037）
作者简介： 张新梅，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为风险分析与应急管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-06-25