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[1]尹鑫伟,吴祥,代宝乾,等.基于贝叶斯网络的冬季赛事寒潮风险建模与分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2026,22(5):198-204.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.05.024]
　Yin Xinwei,Wu Xiang,Dai Baoqian,et al.Modeling and analyzing cold wave-induced risks at winter sporting events:a Bayesian network approach[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2026,22(5):198-204.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.05.024]
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基于贝叶斯网络的冬季赛事寒潮风险建模与分析*

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
22
期数:
2026年5期
页码:
198-204
栏目:
公共安全与应急管理
出版日期:
2026-05-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Modeling and analyzing cold wave-induced risks at winter sporting events:a Bayesian network approach
文章编号:
1673-193X(2026)-05-0198-07
作者:
尹鑫伟; 吴祥; 代宝乾; 王瑜; 汪彤
（1.中国地质大学（北京） 工程技术学院，北京 100083；
2.北京市科学技术研究院城市安全与环境科学研究所，北京 100054）
Author(s):
Yin Xinwei;  Wu Xiang;  Dai Baoqian;  Wang Yu;  Wang Tong
（1.School of Engineering and Technology,China University of Geosciences (Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;
2.Institute of Urban Safety and Environmental Science,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100054,China）
关键词:
冬季体育赛事; 风险链; 贝叶斯网络; 寒潮; 风险评估
Keywords:
winter sporting events;  risk chains;  Bayesian network;  cold wave;  risk assessment
分类号:
X913
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.05.024
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为定量刻画重大冬季体育赛事中气象灾害引发的复杂风险链及其传导路径，提出1种基于贝叶斯网络（Bayesian network,BN）的赛时风险评估方法。以我国北方某大型冬季体育赛事的高山赛区为例，通过历史数据分析识别14个关键风险节点，构建“寒潮-次生灾害-基础设施故障-赛事中断”风险事件链，并以此为基础建立BN拓扑评估模型。结合正向概率推理、逆向溯源诊断与敏感性分析，在6种典型情景下评估风险传导路径并识别系统脆弱环节。研究结果表明：寒潮情景下最可能的风险演化链为“寒潮→暴雪→电力设施损坏→赛事暂停”，电力与通信设施损坏、交通延误是阻断风险蔓延的关键控制节点。研究结果可为大型活动气象风险的动态评估与系统性防控提供决策支持。
Abstract:
In order to quantitatively characterize the complex risk chains and propagation pathways triggered by meteorological disasters at major winter sporting events,a Bayesian network (BN) based risk assessment method for event operations is proposed.Taking a typical alpine competition zone of a major winter sporting event in Northern China as a case study,14 key risk nodes were identified through historical data analysis,and a risk event chain of cold wave-secondary disasters-infrastructure failure-event suspension was constructed.Based on this chain,a BN topology assessment model was established.By integrating forward probabilistic inference,backward diagnostic reasoning,and sensitivity analysis,risk propagation pathways were evaluated,and system vulnerabilities were identified under six typical scenarios.The results show that the most probable risk evolution chain under cold wave conditions is cold wave-blizzard-power facility damage-event suspension,with power and communication facility failures and traffic delays identified as critical control nodes for interrupting risk propagation.The findings provide decision support for dynamic assessment and systematic prevention of meteorological risks at large-scale events.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2026-02-03；修回日期：2026-03-06
* 基金项目： 应急管理部重点科技计划项目（2024EMST121201）；北京市科技新星计划资助项目（20230484402）
作者简介： 尹鑫伟，博士研究生，助理研究员，主要研究方向为安全风险评估与应急管理。
通信作者： 吴祥，博士，研究员，主要研究方向为复杂系统安全性分析与风险建模。
更新日期/Last Update: 2026-06-03