[1]张鹏,游亚菲,王璟,等.基于多维云模型的埋地并行油气管道风险评价研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(7):149-156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.022]
ZHANG Peng,YOU Yafei,WANG Jing,et al.Research on risk assessment of buried parallel oil and gas pipelines based on multi-dimensional cloud model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(7):149-156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.022]
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基于多维云模型的埋地并行油气管道风险评价研究*
ZHANG Peng,YOU Yafei,WANG Jing,et al.Research on risk assessment of buried parallel oil and gas pipelines based on multi-dimensional cloud model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(7):149-156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.022]
《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]
- 卷:
- 18
- 期数:
- 2022年7期
- 页码:
- 149-156
- 栏目:
- 职业安全卫生管理与技术
- 出版日期:
- 2022-07-31
文章信息/Info
- Title:
- Research on risk assessment of buried parallel oil and gas pipelines based on multi-dimensional cloud model
- 文章编号:
- 1673-193X(2022)-07-0149-08
- Keywords:
- oil and gas safety engineering; parallel pipelines; multi-dimensional cloud model; game theory; risk assessment
- 分类号:
- X937
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为提高风险评价准确性以有效支撑管道完整性维护，保证油气管道在多管并行敷设下安全运行，提出1种基于博弈论-多维云模型的风险评价方法。首先，从并行间距、土壤压实度、土壤导热系数、介质流速、管径、埋深、应急响应时间、上下游截断阀间距等方面建立并行管道风险评价指标体系，为降低传统赋权方法的主观性，通过结合熵权法改进层次分析法（AHP），从而确定主客观权重，再经博弈论组合赋权法综合计算指标权重；其次，运用多维云模型理论确定风险等级，通过修正各风险评分项的等级区间结合指标权重，计算出各级的综合确定度，并进行等级评判；最后，将该方法应用于工程实例。研究结果表明：所评价管段的指标风险处于中等风险水平，风险可接受，管段的整体风险评价结果良好，有利于并行管道安全管理；实例证明该评价方法具有较好的适用性。
- Abstract:
- In order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment and effectively support the pipeline integrity maintenance,thus ensure the safety of oil and gas pipelines under the multi-pipeline parallel laying,a risk assessment method based on the game theory and multi-dimensional cloud model was proposed.Firstly,a risk assessment index system of parallel pipelines was established from the aspects of parallel distance,soil compactness,soil thermal conductivity,medium flow velocity,pipe diameter,buried depth,emergency response time and distance between upstream and downstream cutoff valves.In order to reduce the subjectivity of the traditional weighting method,the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was improved by combining with the entropy weighting method,thus the subjective and objective weights were determined,and then the index weights were synthetically calculated by the combination weighting method of the game theory.Secondly,the multi-dimensional cloud model was used to determine the risk grade,then the comprehensive certainty degree of each grade was calculated by modifying the grade interval of each risk scoring item and combining with the index weight,and the grade was determined.Finally,the method was applied to an engineering example,and the results showed that the index risk of the evaluated pipeline segment was in the middle risk level,the risk was acceptable,and the overall risk assessment results of the pipeline section was good,which was beneficial to the safety management of parallel pipelines.The example proved that the assessment method had good applicability.
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备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
-
收稿日期： 2021-10-26
*基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（50974105）；中国工程院重大咨询研究项目（2011-ZD-20）；高校学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目（20105121110003）
作者简介： 张鹏，博士，教授，主要研究方向为工程及企业质量管理、油气管道完整性管理。
通信作者： 游亚菲，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为土木工程建造与管理。
