[1]李华,何思敏,孔娇.景区夜游密集人群踩踏事件情景下脆弱性分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(2):56-63.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.02.008]
LI Hua,HE Simin,KONG Jiao.Vulnerability analysis of dense crowd stampede incident at night tour in scenic spots[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(2):56-63.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.02.008]
点击复制
景区夜游密集人群踩踏事件情景下脆弱性分析*
LI Hua,HE Simin,KONG Jiao.Vulnerability analysis of dense crowd stampede incident at night tour in scenic spots[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(2):56-63.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.02.008]
《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]
- 卷:
- 18
- 期数:
- 2022年2期
- 页码:
- 56-63
- 栏目:
- 学术论著
- 出版日期:
- 2022-02-28
文章信息/Info
- Title:
- Vulnerability analysis of dense crowd stampede incident at night tour in scenic spots
- 文章编号:
- 1673-193X(2022)-02-0056-08
- Keywords:
- night tour in urban scenic spot; stampede incident; vulnerability assessment; AHV model; cloud model
- 分类号:
- X928.9
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为深入分析城市景区夜游密集人群易发生踩踏事件的脆弱性成因问题，运用人—环境耦合系统全面分析人群脆弱性模型三因子：暴露性、敏感性和适应性。依据现行标准规范与调查问卷筛选脆弱性指标，在博弈思想组合主客观权重的基础上，构建组合赋权-云模型的脆弱性综合评价模型。以大雁塔休闲旅游景区为实例，运用云算法得到各层指标的评价云图，与标准云图比较得出最终的评价结果。结果表明：实例中4个地点的脆弱性均处在“中度”与“低度”区域，其中中央喷泉区域最脆弱的3个因素为人群密度、夜间防灾经验意识和人员自救互救能力。该模型数据准确、视图直观，可为城市景区夜游应急网格化管理提供理论支持。
- Abstract:
- In order to deeply analyze the causes of vulnerability for the dense crowd being prone to occur the stampede incident at night tour in the urban scenic spots,the human-environment coupling system was used to comprehensively analyze three factors of the crowd vulnerability model,namely the exposure,sensitivity and adaptability.According to the existing standards and norms and the questionnaires,the vulnerability indexes were screened,and based on the combination of subjective and objective weights in the game idea,a comprehensive assessment model of vulnerability with the combination weighting and cloud model was constructed.Taking the Big Wild Goose Pagoda leisure tourism scenic spot as an example,the cloud algorithm was used to obtain the assessment cloud map of indexes at each layer,and the final assessment results were obtained by comparing with the standard cloud map.The results showed that the vulnerability of the four sites in the example were all in the “medium” and “low” areas,and the three most vulnerable factors of the central fountain area were the crowd density,the experience and awareness of night disaster prevention,and the ability of self-rescue and mutual rescue of personnel.The model has the accurate data and intuitive view,which provides theoretical support for the emergency grid management of night tour in the urban scenic spots.
参考文献/References:
［1］宋瑞.2019—2020年中国旅游发展分析与预测［M］.北京：社科文献出版社,2020.
［2］温宁,刘铁民.基于对抗交叉评价模型的中国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(4):24-28.WEN Ning,LIU Tiemin.The assessment of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the aggressive-cross-evaluation model ［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2011,7(4):24-28.
［3］刘铁民.事故灾难成因再认识——脆弱性研究［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(5):5-10.LIU Tiemin.Recognition of disaster causes—study of the vulnerability ［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2010,6(5):5-10.
［4］ZHANG S,LI C,ZHANG L,et al.Quantification of human vulnerability to earthquake-induced landslides using Bayesian network［J］.Engineering Geology,2019,265:105436.
［5］康正,宁宁,梁立波,等.基于人群脆弱性视角的突发公共卫生事件风险评估［J］.中国公共卫生管理,2015,31(3):280-281,286.KANG Zheng,NING Ning,LIANG Libo,et al.Publichealth emergency risk assessment based on vulnerability of population ［J］.Chinese Journal of Public Health Management,2015,31(3):280-281,286.
［6］申霞,张路.大型商场火灾中人的脆弱性研究［J］.灾害学,2017,32(4):173-178.SHEN Xia,ZHANG Lu.Research onvulnerability of personnel in fire accident in shopping Mall ［J］.Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(4):173-178.
［7］李华,李琳倩,益朋.景区密集人群踩踏事故情景分析［J］.中国安全科学学报,2020,30(4):108-113.LI Hua,LI Linqian,YI Peng.Scenario analysis of stampede accidents in scenic spots ［J］.China Safety Science Journal,2020,30(4):108-113.
［8］石京,柳美玉,解安宇.高峰期景区行人踩踏事故机理与预防研究［J］.道路交通与安全,2016,16(5):1-6,10.SHI Jing,LIU Meiyu,XIE Anyu,et al.Research on the Accident Mechanism:and Prevention of Swarm and Jostlement in Scenic Spot during Peak Period ［J］.Journal of Transportation Engineering,2016,16(5):1-6,10.
［9］于伟巍,牛帅.心理需求导向下的夜间应急照明布局研究［C］//中国城市科学研究会.郑州:城市发展与规划论文集,2019:1973-1977.
［10］陈鹏,陈建国,胡啸峰.公共环境下突发性大规模人群踩踏事故的成灾机理分析与思考［J］.电子科技大学学报(社科版),2016,18(6):25-29.CHEN Peng,CHEN Jianguo,HU Xiaofeng.Analysis and thoughts on disaster mechanism of huge crowdsstampede incidents ［J］.Journal of UESTC（Social Sciences Edition）,2016,18(6):25-29.
［11］HEWITT K.Regions of risk ［M］.Singapore:Longman Singapore Publisher,1997.
［12］宋守信，许葭，陈明利，等.脆弱性特征要素递次演化分析与评价方法研究［J］.北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)，2017,16(2):57-65.SONG Shouxin,XU Jia,CHEN Mingli,et al.Analysis and evaluation method of vulnerability characteristic elements’ successive evolution ［J］.Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University（Social Sciences Edition），2017,16(2):57-65.
［13］TURNER B L I,KASPERSON R E,MATSON P A,et al.A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science ［J］.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2003,100(14)：8074-8079.
［14］周晓冰，张永领.大型社会活动拥挤踩踏事故机理分析及应对策略研究［J］.灾害学，2015，30（4）：156-162,172.ZHOU Xiaobing,ZHANG Yongling.Mechanism analysis of stampede accident in large-scale social activities and its coping strategies ［J］.Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(4):156-162,172.
［15］王灵智,闫林君.基于组合赋权-可变模糊集的装配式建筑施工安全评价［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(11):103-109.WANG Lingzhi,YAN Linjun.Safety evaluation of prefabricated building construction based on combination weighting and variable fuzzy sets ［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2020,16(11):103-109.
［16］刘东,龚方华,付强,等.基于博弈论赋权的灌溉用水效率GRA-TOPSIS评价模型［J］.农业机械学报,2017,48(5):218-226.LIU Dong,GONG Fanghua,FU Qiang,et al.Evaluation model of irrigation water use efficiency based on game theory and GRA-TOPSIS［J］.Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(5):218-226.
［17］李江龙,樊燕燕,李子奇.基于熵权-云模型的城市群综合承灾度评价［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(7):48-54.LI Jianglong,FAN Yanyan,LI Ziqi,et al.Evaluation on comprehensive disaster-bearing degree of city cluster based on entropy weight-cloud model［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2020,16(7):48-54.
［18］陈伟炯,苏俊方,张善杰,等.基于云模型的海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估方法［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(2):110-116.CHEN Weijiong,SU Junfang,ZHANG Shanjie,et al.Assessment method for emergency management capability of marine ship-source oil spill based on cloud model［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2020,16(2):110-116.
［19］朱志强,唐金平,张强,等.基于博弈论组合赋权的正态云模型在地下水水质评价中的应用［J］.节水灌溉,2019(6):43-46.ZHU Zhiqiang,TANG Jinping,ZHANG Qiang et al.Application of normalcloud model based on game theory combined weighting in groundwater quality evaluation［J］.Water Saving Irrigation,2019(6):43-46.
［20］刁柏青,张伟昌,王中龙,等.基于改进模糊综合评价法的电力供应商评价模型［J］.计算机系统应用,2018,27(5):226-231.DIAO Baiqing,ZHANG Weichang,WANG Zhonglong,et al.Power supplier evaluation model based on improved fuzzy comprehensive［J］.Evaluation Method Computer Systems & Applications,2018,27(5):226-231.
［21］刘洋,李志强,韩勇，等.基于云模型和蒙特卡洛方法的医院运营评价［J］.统计与决策,2019,35(5):181-184.LIU Yang,LI Zhiqiang,HAN Yong,et al.Hospital operation evaluation based on cloud model and Monte Carlo method［J］.Statistics and Decision,2019,35(5):181-184.
相似文献/References:
备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
-
收稿日期： 2021-02-01
* 基金项目： 陕西省科技厅软科学一般项目(2020KRM151)
作者简介： 李华，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为企业风险评估与安全管理、建筑防火与安全监控、公共安全与应急管理。
通信作者： 何思敏，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为公共安全与应急管理。
