|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]杜沛,任利锋,刘善伟,等.基于海洋环境要素的动态航行风险评估*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(2):171-176.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.02.027]
　DU Pei,REN Lifeng,LIU Shanwei,et al.Dynamic navigation risk assessment based on marine environmental elements[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(2):171-176.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.02.027]
点击复制

基于海洋环境要素的动态航行风险评估*
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年2期
页码:
171-176
栏目:
特邀专栏
出版日期:
2021-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Dynamic navigation risk assessment based on marine environmental elements
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-02-0171-06
作者:
杜沛; 任利锋; 刘善伟; 曾喆
（1.中国石油大学（华东） 海洋与空间信息学院,山东 青岛 266580；
2.中国石油集团 东方地球物理勘探有限责任公司海洋物探分公司，天津 300457）
Author(s):
DU Pei;  REN Lifeng;  LIU Shanwei;  ZENG Zhe
(1.College of Oceanography and Space Informatics,China University of Petroleum (East China),Qingdao Shandong 266580,China;
2.Marine Geophysical Prospecting Branch,BGP INC.,China National Petroleum Corporation,Tianjin 300457,China)
关键词:
动态航行风险评估; AHP; GIS快速制图; 海洋环境要素
Keywords:
dynamic navigation risk assessment;  AHP;  GIS rapid mapping;  marine environmental element
分类号:
X959
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.02.027
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为得到精确动态航行评估结果，将多准则决策方法与GIS风险制图技术相结合，以5种海洋环境要素（风场、洋流、海浪、海温和海底地形）作为评估因子，通过数据时空插值法和层次分析法（AHP，Analytic Hierarchy Process）确定评估因子权重，提出权重优化算法改进权重值，进而得到最优动态航行风险评估结果。结果表明：动态航行风险评估结果能够直观展示海域航行风险空间分布和变化趋势，评估具有实时性和连续性，可以为海域恶劣海况提供足够预警能力。
Abstract:
In order to obtain the better dynamic navigation assessment results,a combination way of multicriteria decisionmaking method and GIS risk mapping technology was adopted,and five marine environmental elements (wind field,ocean currents,waves,sea temperature and seabed topography) were used as assessment factors.The weights of assessment factors were determined by using the data spatiotemporal interpolation method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.A weight optimization algorithm was put forward to improve the weight value,and then the optimal dynamic navigation risk assessment results were obtained.The results showed that the dynamic navigation risk assessment results could visually display the spatial distribution and change trend of maritime navigation risk,and the assessment was realtime and continuous,which provides sufficient early warning capabilities for the bad sea conditions in the sea.

参考文献/References:

［1］王凤武,郑中义,吴兆麟.大风浪船舶安全航行的研究综述［J］.大连海事大学学报,2002,28(4):60-63. WANG Fengwu,ZHENG Zhongyi,WU Zhaolin.Summarizing study on navigating safely for a ship in the heavy storm waves［J］.Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2002,28(4):60-63.
［2］MAWULI A,FAISAL K,BRIAN V,et al.Arctic shipping accident scenario analysis using Bayesian Network approach ［J］.Ocean Engineering,2017,133:224-230.
［3］单雨龙,张韧,李明.基于动态贝叶斯网络的北极东北航道关键海区通航可行性研究［J］.极地研究,2019,31(1):94-102. SHAN Yulong,ZHANG Ren,LI Ming.A feasibility study on navigation in a key sea area of the northeast passage of the arctic based on the dynamic Bayesian Network［J］.Chinese Journal of Polar Research,2019,31(1):94-102.
［4］郑世民,翁大涛,刘广强.跨海客滚运输船舶航行风险评估［J］.交通运输研究,2015,1(4):75-80. ZHENG Shimin,WENG Datao,LIU Guangqiang.Sailing risk assessment of cross-sea roll-on roll-off passenger ships［J］.Transport Research,2015,1(4):75-80.
［5］SHANG H Z,ZHU J,WEN D L,et al.Navigation risk assessment method based on flow conditions:acase study of the river reach between the Three Gorges Dam and the GezhoubaDam［J］.Ocean Engineering,2019,175:71-79.
［6］杜彭.基于灰云模型港口航道航行船舶安全评价［D］.大连：大连海事大学,2019.
［7］杜清运,王煜淼,刘纪平,等.面向灾害应急服务的自适应制图技术［J］.武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2020,45(8):1117-1125. DU Qingyun,WANG Yumiao,LIU Jiping,et al.Adaptive cartographic techniques for disaster emergency services［J］.Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2020,45(8):1117-1125.
［8］潘东华,贾慧聪,贺原惠子.自然灾害风险制图研究进展与展望［J］.地理空间信息,2019,17(7):6-10. PAN Donghua,JIA Huicong,HE Yuanhuizi,Research progress and prospect of natural disaster risk mapping［J］.Geospatial Information,2019,17(7):6-10.
［9］祝杨菲,梁勤欧,林德根.浙江省滑坡地质灾害风险地图制图综合研究［J］.国土与自然资源研究,2019(3):34-41. ZHU Yangfei,LIANG Qinou,LIN Degen,et al,Research on mapping of landslide geological hazard risk map in Zhejiang region,China［J］.Territory& Natural Resources Study,2019(3):34-41.
［10］CHANDIO I A,MATORI A N B,WANY,et al.GIS-based analytic hierarchy process as a multicriteria decision analysis instrument:a review arabian journal of geosciences［J］.Arabian Journal of Geosciences,2013,6(8):3059-3066.
［11］王旭坪,张娜娜,富佳.基于直觉模糊AHP和灰色关联法的应急避难所选择［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(2):15-19. WANG Xuping,ZHANG Nana,FU Jia.Selection of emergency shelter based on intuitionistic fuzzy AHP and grey relational method［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(2):15-19.
［12］XIAO Z,LIANG C,MANCHUN L.Assessing and mapping maritime transportation risk based on spatial fuzzy multi-criteria decision making:acase study in the South China sea［J］.Ocean Engineering,2020,208:107403
［13］WANG J,LI M,LIU Y,et al.Safety assessment of shipping routes in the South China Sea based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process［J］.Safety Science,2014,62:46-57.
［14］郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法在安全科学研究中的应用［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2008,4(2):69-73. GUO Jinyu,ZHANG Zhongbin,SUN Qinyun.Applications of AHP method in safety scienc［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2008,4(2):69-73.
［15］段旭,陶云,寸灿琼,等.孟加拉湾风暴时空分布和活动规律统计特征［J］.高原气象,2009,28(3):634-641. DUAN Xu,TAO Yun,CUN Canqiong,et al.Temporal and spatial distributions of storms over the bay of bengal and its activity characteristic［J］.Plateau Meteorology,2009,28(3):634-641.

相似文献/References:

[1]廖斌.基于AHP的模糊综合评价法在建筑施工安全评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(10):172.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.10.031]
　LIAO Bin.Application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP in safety assessment of construction[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(2):172.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.10.031]
[2]史俊伟,孟祥瑞,董羽,等.基于地表沉陷控制的膏体充填材料的性能优化研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(10):143.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.024]
　SHI Junwei,MENG Xiangrui,DONG Yu,et al.Study on performance optimization of paste filling material for controlling surface subsidence[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(2):143.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.024]
[3]曾小康,冯阳,赖文庆,等.基于AHP-熵权法的城市燃气管道风险评价*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(5):130.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.05.020]
　ZENG Xiaokang,FENG Yang,LAI Wenqing,et al.Risk assessment of urban gas pipeline based on AHP and entropy weight method[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(2):130.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.05.020]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2021-01-22
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1405600)
作者简介： 杜沛，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为地理信息科学和航行风险评估。
通信作者： 曾喆，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为GIS与遥感研究。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-03-11