|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]左博睿,帅斌,黄文成.基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(7):11-17.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.07.002]
　ZUO Borui,SHUAI Bin,HUANG Wencheng.Research on FRAM accident quantitative analysis method based on fuzzy reasoning[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(7):11-17.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.07.002]
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基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
16
期数:
2020年7期
页码:
11-17
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2020-07-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on FRAM accident quantitative analysis method based on fuzzy reasoning
文章编号:
1673-193X(2020)-07-0011-07
作者:
左博睿; 帅斌; 黄文成
（1.西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院，四川 成都 611756;
2.西南交通大学 综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川 成都 611756;
3.西南交通大学 综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川 成都 611756）
Author(s):
ZUO Borui;  SHUAI Bin;  HUANG Wencheng
(1.School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China;
2.National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China;
3.National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 611756,China)
关键词:
事故分析; FRAM; 模糊推理; 风险量化评估; 危险品运输
Keywords:
accident analysis;  FRAM (functional resonance analysis method);  fuzzy reasoning;  quantitative risk evaluation;  dangerous goods transportation
分类号:
X913.4；X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.07.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷，提出结合模糊推理技术的FuzzyFRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态；依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量；根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系，针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题，采用模糊证据推理技术，通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例，验证方法的可行性。结果表明：FuzzyFRAM模型的评估结果较为精确，是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。
Abstract:
In order to effectively overcome the defect that the quantitative analysis can’t be conducted in the FRAM (functional resonance analysis method) accident analysis,a FuzzyFRAM model combined with fuzzy reasoning technology was proposed.The improved model accomplished the recognition on the operation state of system based on FRAM,and according to the time/precision properties of output elements,a secondorder fuzzy inference system was built in MATLAB to obtain the quantitative evaluation of functional output.Then,the function evaluation system was constructed according to the common performance condition (CPC) and function input coupling port.In view of the uncertain information fusion and modeling problems in the evaluation system,the fuzzy evidence reasoning technology was used to obtain the risk index of functions after the establishment of fuzzy reliability structure,data processing and information fusion measurement.Finally,the feasibility of the method was verified by taking a railway dangerous goods transportation accident as an example.The results showed that the evaluation results of FuzzyFRAM model was more accurate,which is the effective supplement to FRAM analysis method.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-03-14；网络首发日期： 2020-07-22
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（71173177）；国家铁路局科技计划项目（KF2013-020，KF2014-041）；西南交通大学研究生创新实验实践项目（YC201507103）；西南交通大学研究生学术培养提升计划（跨学科创新培育）专题项目（2018KXK04）
作者简介： 左博睿，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为复杂社会技术系统建模、危险品运输风险管理。
通信作者： 帅斌，博士，教授，主要研究方向为危险品运输路网建模与规划、危险品运输系统评价等。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-08-06