|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]黄海燕,李健,江田汉,等.基于贝叶斯网络的事故多级多米诺效应计算方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(6):157-161.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.06.025]
 HUANG Haiyan,LI Jian,JIANG Tianhan,et al.Study on calculation method of multilevel domino effect of accident based on Bayesian network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(6):157-161.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.06.025]
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基于贝叶斯网络的事故多级多米诺效应计算方法研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
15
期数:
2019年6期
页码:
157-161
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2019-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on calculation method of multilevel domino effect of accident based on Bayesian network
文章编号:
1673-193X(2019)-06-0157-05
作者:
黄海燕13李健2江田汉3吴军1白晓昀4
(1. 北京化工大学 经济管理学院,北京 100029;
2. 北京工业大学 经济与管理学院 北京现代制造业发展研究基地,北京 100124;
3. 中国安全生产科学研究院,北京 100012;
4. 中国寰球工程有限公司 北京分公司,北京 100029)
Author(s):
HUANG Haiyan13 LI Jian2 JIANG Tianhan3 WU Jun1 BAI Xiaoyun4
(1.College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China;
2.Beijing Modem Manufacturing Industry Development Research Center, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;
3.China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China;
4.China Huanqiu Contracting & Engineering Co., Ltd. Beijing Branch, Beijing 100029, China)
关键词:
多米诺效应个人风险社会风险贝叶斯网络
Keywords:
domino effect individual risk social risk Bayesian network
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.06.025
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了更合理地分析事故风险,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的多级多米诺效应计算方法及其计算步骤,并从个人风险和社会风险2个角度,定量分析了生产安全事故的多级多米诺效应。同时以某企业的2个汽油罐区为例,运用上述方法对其生产安全事故的多米诺效应进行定量计算,并将计算结果与未考虑多米诺效应、仅考虑一级多米诺效应时的计算结果进行比较。研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的计算方法,同时考虑了多级多米诺效应和事故的协同效应,可以使计算的个人风险和社会风险更接近于实际。
Abstract:
In order to analyze the accident risk more reasonably, a calculation method and its calculation procedure of multilevel domino effect based on Bayesian network were proposed. In addition, the multilevel domino effect of work safety accidents were quantitatively analyzed from the perspectives of individual risk and social risk. Taking two gasoline tank areas of an enterprise as examples, the domino effect of its work safety accidents were quantitatively calculated by using the above method. Furthermore, the calculation results were compared with those without considering the domino effect and only considering the singlelevel domino effect. The results showed that the multilevel domino effect and the synergistic effect between accidents could be considered at the same time by the calculation method based on Bayesian network. It can make the calculation results of individual risk and social risk closer to the actual situation.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2018-12-12
* 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0801500, 2017YFC0804907);国家自然科学基金项目(71571010);北京市社会科学基金一般项目(17GLB014);北京市长城学者培养计划(CIT&TCD20180305)
作者简介: 黄海燕 ,硕士研究生 ,主要研究方向为化工安全管理。
通信作者: 李健,博士,教授,主要研究方向为应急管理,物流与供应链管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-07-09