|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]黄文成,帅斌,徐逸飞.铁路危险品运输系统单因素耦合风险折叠突变及控制机理研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(4):148-153.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.04.023]
 HUANG Wencheng,SHUAI Bin,XU Yifei.Study on single factor coupling risk folding mutation and control mechanism of railway dangerous goods transportation system[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(4):148-153.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.04.023]
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铁路危险品运输系统单因素耦合风险折叠突变及控制机理研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
15
期数:
2019年4期
页码:
148-153
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2019-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on single factor coupling risk folding mutation and control mechanism of railway dangerous goods transportation system
文章编号:
1673-193X(2019)-03-0148-06
作者:
黄文成帅斌徐逸飞
(西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院,四川 成都 611756)
Author(s):
HUANG Wencheng SHUAI Bin XU Yifei
(School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China)
关键词:
铁路危险品运输系统风险单因素耦合折叠突变控制机理
Keywords:
railway dangerous goods transportation system risk single factor coupling folding mutation control mechanism
分类号:
U298.1
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.04.023
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究铁路危险品运输系统受人、机、物、环、管单因素耦合风险的影响,分别建立了各单因素耦合风险折叠突变模型,采用1985—2016年中国发生的铁路危险品运输事故统计数据分析模型,显示出人的单因素耦合风险突变对于铁路危险品运输系统的影响最大,其次是管、机、物、环因素。基于此分别建立了含系统内部风险防御阻尼控制系数和外部影响因素幅值调节系数的杜芬震荡分叉响应方程研究单因素耦合风险控制机理,研究结果表明:随着系统内部阻尼不断增强,或是外部影响幅值得到控制,铁路危险品运输系统都将不再产生折叠突变,系统将变得更加稳定、安全。
Abstract:
In order to study the influence of single factor coupling risks of human, machine, object, environment and management of the railway dangerous goods transportation system, we established a singlefactor coupling risk folding mutation model, and we used the statistical data of China railway dangerous goods transportation accidents occurred from 1985 to 2016 to analyze the model. The results show that the singlefactor coupling risk mutation of human has the greatest impacts on the railway dangerous goods transportation system, followed by the management, machine, object and environment. After that two duffing oscillating bifurcation response equations with internal damping control coefficient and external influence factor amplitude adjustment parameters are established to study the singlefactor coupling risk control mechanism. The results show that: as the internal damping of the system continues to increase, or the external influence amplitude is controlled, the railway dangerous goods transportation system will no longer produce folding mutations, and the system will become more stable and safer.

参考文献/References:

[1]黄文成,帅斌,孙妍.基于N-K模型的铁路危险品运输系统耦合风险形成机理研究[J].铁道学报,2018,录用待出版. HUANG Wencheng, SHUAI Bin, SUN Yan. Study on coupling risk formation mechanism of railway dangerous goods transportation system based on N-K model[J]. Journal of the China Railway Society,2018, In Press.
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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2019-03-05
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(71173177);西南交通大学研究生创新实验实践项目(YC201507103);2018年西南交通大学研究生学术培养提升计划(跨学科创新培育)(2018KXK04);2018年西南交通大学优秀博士学位论文培育项目
作者简介: 黄文成,博士研究生,主要研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-05-09