|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]刘益维,陈国明,朱渊,等.基于马尔可夫的地面控制井下安全阀可靠性评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(1):139-144.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.01.022]
 LIU Yiwei,CHEN Guoming,ZHU Yuan,et al.Markovbased reliability assessment for surface controlled subsurface safety valve system[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(1):139-144.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.01.022]
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基于马尔可夫的地面控制井下安全阀可靠性评估
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
15
期数:
2019年1期
页码:
139-144
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2019-01-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Markovbased reliability assessment for surface controlled subsurface safety valve system
文章编号:
1673-193X(2019)-01-0139-06
作者:
刘益维陈国明朱渊何睿沈孝鱼
(中国石油大学(华东) 海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东 青岛 266580)
Author(s):
LIU Yiwei CHEN Guoming ZHU Yuan HE Rui SHEN Xiaoyu
(Center for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China)
关键词:
井下安全阀马尔可夫模型可靠性可修复系统
Keywords:
subsurface safety valve Markov model reliability repairable system
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.01.022
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为保障地面控制井下安全阀系统的安全运行,防止系统发生故障,建立了井下安全阀可修复系统的马尔可夫模型;针对系统设备构成复杂及共因故障等问题,基于β因子模型描述共因失效,同时将模型划分为3个独立模块,通过克罗内克积方法合并,评估系统可靠性;参照OREDA可靠性数据,定量求解井下安全阀系统可用度、可靠度以及稳态指标,研究模型中状态转移概率对系统稳态可用度的影响。研究结果表明:井下安全阀系统的可用度随时间增长而迅速到达稳态值;系统检修周期应小于2.5 a;根据可靠性分析结果,运营方应考虑系统经济与可靠性间的博弈关系,合理优化系统冗余结构与维修周期管理,防止井下安全阀系统失效。
Abstract:
To ensure the safe operation of surface controlled subsurface safety valve system and prevent the failure of the system, a Markov model for the repairable system of subsurface safety valve was established. Aiming at the problems of complex equipment composition and common cause failure of the system, the common cause failure was described based on the β-factor model, meanwhile, the model was divided into three independent modules, and the reliability of the system was evaluated by merging with the Kronecker product approach. The availability, reliability and steadystate indexes of the subsurface safety valve system were quantitatively calculated referring to the reliability data of OREDA, and the influence of state transition probability in the model on the steadystate availability of the system was studied. The results showed that the availability of the subsurface safety valve system rapidly reached the steadystate value with the increase of time. The overhaul cycle of the system should be less than 2.5 years. According to the results of reliability analysis, the operators should consider the game relationship between the economy and reliability, and rationally optimize the redundancy structure and maintenance cycle to prevent the failure of the subsurface safety valve system.

参考文献/References:

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相似文献/References:

[1]黎伟,宋伟,李乃禾,等.滑套式井下安全阀设计及动态特性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(2):159.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.02.028]
 LI Wei,SONG Wei,LI Naihe,et al.Design and dynamic characteristic analysis of sliding-sleeve subsurface safety valve[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(1):159.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.02.028]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2018-09-21
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0804500,2016YFC0304005)
作者简介: 刘益维,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为海洋油气安全技术。
通信作者: 陈国明,博士,教授,主要研究方向为海洋油气工程及装备、油气安全工程。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-01-31