|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]王治莹,王伟康.突发事件下多种信息交互传播的动力机制与调控策略[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(2):12-19.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.02.002]
 WANG Zhiying,WANG Weikang.Dynamic mechanism and regulation strategies for interactive dissemination of multi-information in emergencies[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(2):12-19.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.02.002]
点击复制

突发事件下多种信息交互传播的动力机制与调控策略
分享到:

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
14
期数:
2018年2期
页码:
12-19
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2018-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Dynamic mechanism and regulation strategies for interactive dissemination of multi-information in emergencies
文章编号:
1673-193X(2018)-02-0012-08
作者:
王治莹王伟康
(安徽工业大学 管理科学与工程学院,安徽 马鞍山 243032)
Author(s):
WANG Zhiying WANG Weikang
(School of Management Science & Engineering, Anhui University of Technology, Ma’anshan Anhui 243032, China)
关键词:
突发事件多种信息动力机制调控策略系统动力学
Keywords:
emergencies multi-information dynamic mechanism regulation strategies system dynamics
分类号:
X913;N945.12
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.02.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对突发事件下多种信息共存情境中信息交互传播的调控问题,首先界定了该情境中“涌现→传播”过程的组成要素,建立了信息交互关系框架及其系统动力学模型;其次,通过设计和仿真基础情景,将仿真结果与案例进行对比,检验模型的模拟趋势与现实状况的一致性;最后,通过设计和仿真实验情景,考查决策者的关键可控因素对系统演化的影响。研究结果表明:官方渠道所发布信息的可信度、平均个体传播量及群体的立场认知水平,与相信和传播官方渠道信息的人数均正相关,而与相信和传播民间渠道信息的人数均负相关;对各群体数量演化影响的显著性而言,官方渠道信息的平均个体传播量最高,官方渠道信息的可信度次之,群体的立场认知水平较低。
Abstract:
Aiming at the problem of regulating the interactive dissemination of information under the situation of multi-information coexisting in the emergencies, the key components in the process of "from emergence to dissemination" under this situation were defined, and a frame of information interaction relationship and its system dynamics model were established. Then, by designing and simulating the basic scenario, the simulation results were compared with the cases to verify the consistency between the model's simulation trend and the practical situation. Finally, several experimental scenarios were designed and simulated to test the effect of key controlled factors of decision-makers on the evolution of system. The results showed that the credibility and average individual dissemination quantity (AIDQ) of information from official channels (IFOC), and the cognition level on position of group (CLPG) were positively correlated with the number of people who believe and disseminate IFOC respectively, whereas negatively related to the number of people who believe and disseminate the information from folk channels respectively. For the significance of effect on the evolution of the number of groups, the AIDQ of IFOC was the highest, the credibility of IFOC took the second place, and the CLPG was the lowest.

参考文献/References:

[1]RACHANIOTIS N P, DASAKLIS T K, PAPPIS C P. A deterministic resource scheduling model in epidemic control: A case study[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2012, 216(1): 225-231.
[2]刘怡君,陈思佳,黄远,等. 重大生产安全事故的网络舆情传播分析及其政策建议—以“8·12天津港爆炸事故”为例[J]. 管理评论,2016,28(3):221-229. LIU Yijun, CHEN Sijia, HUANG Yuan, et al. The analysis and policy recommendations on the spread of network public opinion in major production safety accidents: A case study of the 8·12 Tianjin port explosion[J]. Management Review, 2016, 28(3): 221-229.
[3] 陈业华,康亚红,宋之杰. 公共场所突发事件情境下受灾人群间信息的传播与扩散研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识,2015,45(16):44-54. CHEN Yehua, KANG Yahong, SONG Zhijie. The research of information dissemination and diffusion between the affected people in the scenario of public places emergencies[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2015, 45(16): 44-54.
[4] 武澎,王恒山,李煜. 突发事件信息传播超网络中枢纽节点的判定研究[J]. 管理评论,2013,25(6):104-111. WU Peng, WANG Hengshan, LI Yu. Determination of the hub nodes in the emergencies’ information dissemination supernetwork[J]. Management Review, 2013, 25(6): 104-111.
[5] OU C, JIN X, WANG Y, et al. Modelling heterogeneous information spreading abilities of social network ties[J]. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 2017(75): 67-76.
[6]ZHANG Y, TANG C, LI W. Cooperative and competitive dynamics model for information propagation in online social networks[J]. Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2014(2): 1-12.
[7]WANG J, ZHAO L, HUANG R. 2SI2R rumor spreading model in homogeneous networks[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2014, 413(1): 153-161.
[8]XIE M, JIA Z, CHEN Y, et al. Simulating the spreading of two competing public opinion information on complex network[J]. Applied Mathematics, 2012, 3(9): 1074-1078.
[9]XU J, ZHANG L, MA B, et al. Impacts of suppressing guide on information spreading[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2016(444): 922-927.
[10]王治莹,岳朝龙. 舆情传播中考虑公众风险感知的多资源流应急优化调度[J]. 中国管理科学,2016,24(6):115-123. WANG Zhiying, YUE Chaolong. Emergency optimal scheduling of multi-resource flow considering the public’s risk perception in public opinion propagation[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(6): 115-123.
[11]MORALES A J, BORONDO J, LOSADA J C, et al. Efficiency of human activity on information spreading on Twitter[J]. Social Networks, 2014, 39(1): 1-11.
[12]王治莹,李勇建. 政府干预下突发事件舆情传播规律与控制决策[J]. 管理科学学报,2017,20(2):43-52,62. WANG Zhiying, LI Yongjian. Propagation law and coping strategies for public opinions in emergency with the consideration of the government intervention[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2017, 20(2): 43-52, 62.
[13]FRIEDKIN N E, PROSKURNIKOV A V, TEMPO R, et al. Network science on belief system dynamics under logic constraints[J]. Science, 2016, 354(6310): 321-326.
[14]DEYOUNG S E, WACHTENDORF T, FARMER A K, et al. NOAA radios and neighbourhood networks: demographic factors for channel preference for hurricane evacuation information[J]. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 2016, 24(4): 275-285.
[15]OSTHUS D, HICKMANN K S, CARAGEA P C, et al. Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model[J]. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2017, 11(1): 202-224.

相似文献/References:

[1]江田汉,邓云峰,李湖生,等.基于秩和比法的突发事件固有风险水平评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(5):34.
 JIANG Tian-han,DENG Yun-feng,LI Hu-sheng,et al.Inherent risk assessment of emergency incidents based on the rank sum ratio method in China[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(2):34.
[2]吴发旺.电力突发事件应急管理中的博弈[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(3):73.
 WU Fa-wang.Game on emergency management of power incident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(2):73.
[3]朱中华,王则胜.港口水域突发事件应急预案存在的问题与对策分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(3):123.
 ZHU Zhong-hua,WANG Ze-sheng.Analysis and Countermeasure to Problems of Port Waters Emergency Response Plan[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(2):123.
[4]江田汉,邓云峰,李湖生,等.基于风险的突发事件应急准备能力评估方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(7):35.
 JIANG Tianhan DENG Yunfeng LI Husheng LIU Tiemin JIANG Chuansheng WANG Jianguang WANG Jingjing.Risk-based assessment model for emergency preparedness capability of emergency incidents in China[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(2):35.
[5]刘铁民.突发事件应急预案体系概念设计研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(8):5.
 LIU Tie-min.Design of the emergency plan system’s concept[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(2):5.
[6]杨力.突发事件应急意识和能力建设探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(8):154.
 YANG Li.Study on ascension of emergency consciousness and ability construction[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(2):154.
[7]郑霞忠,胡斌锋,郑烜.基于水电工程的应急执行力构成要素分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):149.
 ZHENG Xia-zhong,HU Bin-feng,ZHENG Xuan.An analysis on the constituent elements of emergency execution based on the hydropower project[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(2):149.
[8]李群.突发事件应急推演系统平台分析与设计[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(3):120.
 LI Qun.Analysis and design of simulated emergency exercise system platform[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(2):120.
[9]刘铁民.应急预案重大突发事件情景构建* ——基于“情景-任务-能力”应急预案编制技术研究之一[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(4):5.
 LIU Tie min.Studies on scenes’ construction of emergency planning ——part I of emergency planning technology based on “scenetaskability”[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(2):5.
[10]王爱莎,彭〓伟.突发事件下某教室的人员疏散研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(8):163.
 WANG Ai sha,PENG Wei.Study on emergency evacuation of a classroom[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(2):163.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目(71704001,71601002,71603109,71572125);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKQ2016D19);安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(1708085MG168)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-03-19