|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]郑云水,康毅军,牛行通.基于博弈论与可拓学的非正常接发列车人因风险评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(1):179-184.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.01.029]
　ZHENG Yunshui,KANG Yijun,NIU Xingtong.Evaluation on human factor risk of abnormal train reception and departure based on game theory and extenics[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(1):179-184.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.01.029]
点击复制

基于博弈论与可拓学的非正常接发列车人因风险评价
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
14
期数:
2018年1期
页码:
179-184
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2018-01-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Evaluation on human factor risk of abnormal train reception and departure based on game theory and extenics
文章编号:
1673-193X(2018)-01-0179-06
作者:
郑云水; 康毅军; 牛行通
(兰州交通大学 自动化与电气工程学院，甘肃 兰州 730070)
Author(s):
ZHENG Yunshui;  KANG Yijun;  NIU Xingtong
(School of Automatic & Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou Gansu 730070, China)
关键词:
认知行为; 博弈论; 可拓学; 接发列车; 人因风险
Keywords:
cognitive behavior;  game theory;  extenics;  train reception and departure;  human factor risk
分类号:
X92;U298.1
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.01.029
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为更加准确且全面地对非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险进行评价，提出基于博弈论与可拓学的人因风险评价模型。在工作人员认知机理的基础上，构建认知行为模型，考虑到人因风险指标数据的特性，利用博弈论的思想将由AHP法得出的主观权重与由熵值法得到的客观权重进行最优组合，克服了单一赋权法的不足；引用可拓学原理，建立多级可拓评价模型，修正了风险评价的偏差，使人因风险评价更加准确。实例计算表明：此方法运用到铁路非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险评价是有效的，且可为科学制订风险控制措施提供依据。
Abstract:
In order to evaluate the human factor risk of train reception and departure operation under the abnormal conditions more accurately and comprehensively, an evaluation model of human factor risk based on game theory and extenics was put forward. The cognitive behavior model was constructed based on the cognition behavior mechanism of staff, and considering the self characteristics of human factor risk index data, the optimal combination of the subjective weights obtained by AHP method and the objective weights obtained by the entropy method was carried out by using the idea of game theory, which overcame the shortage of single weighting method. The multi-level extension evaluation model was established by using the principle of extenics, which corrected the deviation of risk evaluation effectively and made the evaluation of human factor risk more accurately. The case calculation showed that it is effective and feasible to apply this method in the evaluation on human factor risk of abnormal train reception and departure, and it can provide the reference for formulating the risk control measures scientifically.

参考文献/References:

［1］吴海涛, 庄河. 一种基于认知过程分析的人因失误辨识方法-应用于高速铁路铁车调度系统［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2014, 10(2):99-105. WU Haitao, ZHUANG He. A Method of human error detection based on cogni-tive process analysis-application to high speed railway train dispatching system［J］. Science and Technology of Safety Production in China, 2014, 10(2):99-105.
［2］宋宏芳, 王天亮, 岳祖润, 等. 寒区铁路站场路基服役性能评价与分析［J］. 北京交通大学学报, 2017, 41(1):20-27. SONG Hongfang, WANG Tianliang, YUE Zurun, et al. Evaluation and analysis of service performance of railway yard subgrade in cold regions［J］. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University, 2017, 41(1):20-27.
［3］王波, 何世伟, 焦文根, 等. 铁路车务系统安全心里和行为模式的探讨［J］. 铁道运输与经济, 2016, 38(1):63-67. WANG Bo, HE Shiwei, JIAO Wengen, et al. Discussion on safety mentality and behavioral patterns of train crew system［J］. Railway Transport And Economy, 2016, 38(1):63-67.
［4］JIN W, SHI Z, SIEGEL D, et al. Development and evaluation of health monitoring techniques for railway point machines［C］//Austin, 2015.
［5］MELISSA T. Understanding the human factor contribution to railway accident and incident in Australia［J］. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2010, 40(17):50-57.
［6］LUCA P, PIERO B. Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2015, 138(2):176-193.
［7］吴海涛. 非正常条件下高铁列车调度指挥人因可靠性研究［D］. 成都: 西南交通大学, 2014.
［8］王黎静, 王彦龙. 人的可靠性分析-人因差错风险评估与控制［M］. 北京: 航空工业出版社, 2015.
［9］邓雪, 李家铭, 曾浩健, 等. 层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究［J］. 数学的实践与认识, 2012, 42(7):93-100. DENG Xue, LI Jiaming, ZENG Haojian, et al. Research on computation methods of ahp wight vector and its applications［J］. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2012, 42(7):93-100.
［10］罗毅, 李昱龙. 基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策［J］. 电网技术, 2013, 37(1):77-81. LUO Yi, LI Yulong. Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network plan-ning based on entropy weight and grey relational analysis［J］. Power System Technology, 2013, 37(1): 77-81.
［11］赵文会, 闫豪楠, 何威. 基于风火网非合作博弈的电力市场均衡模型［J］. 电网技术, 2017, 41(5): 1-8. ZHAO Wenhui, YAN Haonan, HE Wei. Equilibrium model of electricity market based on non-cooperative game of wind farms, coal-fired power plants and power grid company［J］. Power System Technology, 2017, 41(5):1-8.
［12］吴海涛, 罗霞. 基于直觉三角模糊TOPSIS的高铁列车调度指挥人因失误风险排序［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2014, 10(4):139-144. WU Haitao, LUO Xia. Risk prioritization model of human error for high-speed railway dispatchers based on intuitionistic triangular fuzzy TOPSIS［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2014, 10(4):139-144.
［13］潘科, 王洪德, 石剑云. 多级可拓评价方法在地铁运营安全评价中的应用［J］. 铁道学报, 2011, 33(5):14-19. PAN Ke, WANG Hongde, SHI Jianyun. Application of multi-level extensible method to urban subway operation safety evaluation［J］. Journal of the China Railway Society, 2011, 33(5):14-19.
［14］谢红卫, 孙志强, 李欣欣, 等. 典型人因可靠性分析方法评述［J］. 国防科技大学学报, 2007, 29(2): 101-107. XIE Hongwei, SUN Zhiqiang, LI Xinxin, et al. An overview of typical methods for human reliability analysis［J］. Journal of National University of Defense Technology, 2007, 29(2):101-107.
［15］OMER F E, FATIH C, UDAY K. Failure diagnostics on railway turnout systems using support vector machines［C］//Brighton, 2010.
［16］张亚东, 郭进, 戴贤春, 等. 基于多级可拓评价法的列车运行控制系统运营安全风险评价［J］. 中国铁道科学, 2013, 34(5):114-119. ZHANG Yadong, GUO Jin, DAI Xianchun, et al. Operation safety risk evaluation of train control system based on multilevel extensible evaluation method［J］. China Railway Science, 2013, 34(5): 114-119.

相似文献/References:

[1]李健,王雅洁,吴军,等.零星危险化学品快递运输风险博弈分[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(3):108.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.020]
　LI Jian,WANG Yajie,WU Jun,et al.Game analysis on risk in express transportation of sporadic hazardous chemicals[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(1):108.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.020]
[2]黄建文,王东,廖再毅,等.基于组合赋权法和云理论的震后重建住宅工程质量评价研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(3):127.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.023]
　HUANG Jianwen,WANG Dong,LIAO Zaiyi,et al.Evaluation on engineering quality of post-earthquake reconstruction residential buildings based on combined weight method and cloud theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(1):127.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.023]
[3]陈国华,夏浩,高子文.化工园区应急避难点选址评估模型应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(8):61.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.08.010]
　CHEN Guohua,XIA Hao,GAO Ziwen.Research on application of evaluation model for emergency shelter location in chemical industrial park[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(1):61.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.08.010]
[4]昌伟伟,吴兵.博弈论在预防化工园区事故多米诺效应中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(12):162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.025]
　CHANG Weiwei,WU Bing.Application of game theory in preventing domino effect of accidents in chemical industry park[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(1):162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.025]
[5]钟里密,谢全敏,罗忆.基于博弈-可拓理论的隧道围岩稳定性评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(1):56.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.01.009]
　ZHONG Limi,XIE Quanmin,LUO Yi.Stability evaluation of tunnel surrounding rock based on gameextension theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(1):56.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.01.009]
[6]毕树柏,宫本福.基于博弈论的轨道交通建设项目安全投入与监管行为分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(4):20.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.04.003]
　BI Shubai,GONG Benfu.Analysis on safety investment and supervision behavior of rail transit construction project based on game theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(1):20.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.04.003]
[7]李莎莎,崔铁军.系统操作者与管理者行为的博弈演化与收益分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(8):172.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.08.027]
　LI Shasha,CUI Tiejun.Game evolution and profit analysison behavior of system operators and managers[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(1):172.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.08.027]
[8]董凯凯,米根锁.基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的无线闭塞中心风险评估*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(10):179.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.10.027]
　DONG Kaikai,MI Gensuo.Risk assessment of radio block center based on game weighting matter-element and evidence theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(1):179.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.10.027]
[9]张鹏,游亚菲,王璟,等.基于多维云模型的埋地并行油气管道风险评价研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(7):149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.022]
　ZHANG Peng,YOU Yafei,WANG Jing,et al.Research on risk assessment of buried parallel oil and gas pipelines based on multi-dimensional cloud model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(1):149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.07.022]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目 (61763023)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-02-12